I had conceived of this article as a Ted talk. Maybe one day, if I’m lucky.
For now, I’m publishing it here. It’s something that I’ve been thinking about for a while and I feel compelled to put it out there. Somebody needs to say it — why not me?
This article is about why bitcoin means so much to the Millennial generation.
In one sense, it’s a defense of bitcoin from people who can’t understand why it has any value or why we would spend our time and money on it.
In another sense, it’s a reflection on Millennials…
Lots of people say bitcoin’s dead.
In some ways, they have a point. Its price chart looks like shit, everybody expects the bottom to fall out, and its on-chain data has only just started to shift to positive (but not much).
At the same time, the only signs of a bear market come from trading patterns that we also see during bull markets, leaving pretty much everybody confused and uncertain about which way the market will go.
If you thought it was hard for me to sit on my hands from October to May, it’s even harder for me to…
Some people keep talking about a bitcoin bear market.
Not just because the definitions of “bear market” change from person to person and depend on arbitrary charting patterns and semantic contortions, but also because we have not seen a market cycle peak.
At least, not a peak that matched any peak we’ve ever seen.
You can cherry-pick signals that we see at previous peaks, but those signals also appear during smaller boom/bust cycles between the peaks. …
Do you believe bitcoin’s price will drop to $20,000 soon?
Or do you think it will complete a “Wyckoff accumulation” and burst into a supercycle by the end of the summer?
Perhaps crypto will spend the next year in a bear market? If so, what will happen to the stock-to-flow model? It demands bitcoin’s price must rise immediately.
If this seems like a confusing and scary time, that’s because it is. Nobody knows the direction of the market even when it seems like everybody does.
Let’s look at some of the trading signals people throw about. …
Is anybody still here?
Judging from the growth in new bitcoin addresses, many of you aren’t.
For those who remain, you have a lot to look forward to. Ironically, far more now than you did in March and April. But it will probably take some time to get where you want to go.
This article contains excerpts from the June issue of Crypto is Easy, reposted in part here.
Are you wondering about my thoughts on the fate of altcoins? I got a few emails about it.
Sounds pretty bad, doesn’t it? Bitcoin’s about to do it — within the next week or so.
What’s a death cross?
It’s a trading signal that appears when the 50 daily moving average drops below the 200 daily moving average on a price chart. Like so:
Do you remember April 14, 2021?
On that day, bitcoin’s price hit its all-time high: $65,000.
Today, it’s a lot lower.
Many say the market peaked on April 14 and we’re now in a bear market.
Obviously, the experts on YouTube and Twitter know the market better than you do.
That’s why they told you prices will always go up, nobody will ever sell, the bull market will destroy all data models, and the supercycle will send “these five altcoins” up 100x “in May.”
As experienced chart analysts, they clearly identified the peak.
Now, so can you.
Below, I put…
Quite a turn of events.
Last month, YouTube told me about all these altcoins ready to boom in May and Twitter said the supercycle was about to begin.
Now YouTube says the market peaked in April and Twitter says we’re in a bear market.
Seems a little excessive to me.
(Yes, at the end of March, I did publish an article titled “Will Bitcoin’s Price Peak at $90,000 in April?” but that article was a thought piece projecting others’ expectations of the market forward to its natural conclusion. Those expectations never materialized.)
According to expert analysts, crypto has spent 34…
In 2019 and 2020, I sometimes wrote two minute’s worth of thoughts on bitcoin — very, very brief commentary. I did my last one exactly one year ago today. Figured I’d throw another one out there. I hope you enjoy it.
In the February monthly issue of Crypto is Easy, I confessed that I’m more tortoise, less hare. Steady persistence rather than bursts of frenetic activity.
In a market full of traders, degens, and moonboys, I’m content to wait for my opportunity to come. I don’t want to find the right time to sell my crypto for more of my…
Yet, bitcoin’s price is roughly $34,000 as of this post.
Is the model broken?
Good people can disagree about whether S2F or S2Fx are valid. That’s above my pay grade.
Whether they’re valid models or not, they certainly allow for a lot of deviations. Bitcoin’s price goes way above and way below predicted prices all the time.
Over its entire history, bitcoin’s price has gone more than 400% higher and 70% lower than the S2F models for months…