Predictions
Partly to calibrate my own confidence levels, partly to have some intellectual honesty/ skin-in-the-game.
Interest rates reach 2% within 5 years — 60% confidence
There is no recession in the next 5 years — 60% confidence
General AI turns out to be less important than autonomy — 80% confidence
AR turns out to be more important than autonomy — 60% confidence
A new framework for global trade is established by 2025, which allows for even more free trade in some domains than before 2016 — 70% confidence
Blockchain is an important part of that free trade system — 30% confidence
There will be a period of high (3-4%) growth starting in before 2025–60% confidence
Political unrest in the USA becomes noticeably worse in 2018–70% confidence
There is a political solution to the housing/rent crisis before 2020–70% confidence
Ruth Davidson becomes PM of Britain by 2018–55% confidence
The education system of most developed countries will get an overhaul, based on the alternative education techniques developed this decade, by 2030–70% confidence
China democratizes by 2030–60% confidence
No great power war between the US and China before 2030–80% confidence
