Most VALUABLE Player
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The 2019 National Football League (NFL) Most Valuable Player (MVP) race ended up being extremely controversial this year. Lamar Jackson won the award, but many claim Russell Wilson or Patrick Mahomes as their MVP.
The assumption among fans is that the eye test is how MVP voters choose their winner, and some believe that statistics should play a bigger role than it currently does in the selection process. There are so many things that should go into picking who really is the most valuable player on a team, things like: wide receiver, offensive line and tight end talent. The award if for most valuable player to their entire team, after all.
So who really was most valuable? First, we need to establish who the top five players who were in the running for the award this season. Lamar Jackson, Russell Wilson, Patrick Mahomes, Aaron Rodgers and Deshaun Watson were all contenders for this award at the end of the season. Other position players were considered for the award as well, but the award tends to go to a quarterback more often than not.
For comparing quarterback statistics, I decided to use the top seven categories for a quarterback. Those categories being: completed passes, attempted passed, competition percentage, total yards thrown, total touchdowns thrown, interceptions thrown, and their quarterback rating. I also only used regular season statistics.
Russell Wilson threw for 4,110 yards on 516 attempts and 341 completions. Wilson also threw for 31 touchdowns and only five interceptions. He finished with the second highest quarterback rating at a 106.3. Wilson also participated in every offensive snap of the season, the only quarterback to do so, according to lineups.com.
Patrick Mahomes took the Kansas City Chiefs to the Super Bowl behind his 4,031 yards, 26 touchdowns and five interception season. Mahomes attempted 484 passes and completed 319 of them for a completion percentage of 65.9 percent. Mahomes did miss week eight and nine of the season with a dislocated right kneecap.
With 4,002 yards, Aaron Rodgers threw for the most yards out of the eligible quarterbacks. Rodgers also attempted and completed the most passes, completing 353 of his 569 attempted passes. Rodgers’ touchdown to interception ratio was slightly better than Mahomes, with 26 touchdowns and four interceptions. Though completing the most passes and having the most amount of yards out of the five quarterbacks, Rodgers has the lowest quarterback rating at 95.4.
Deshaun Watson finished the regular season with 3,852 yards, 26 touchdowns and 12 interceptions. Watson attempted 495 passes and completed 333 of them. Watson’s completion percentage was the highest of all the quarterbacks at 67.3 percent.
Lamar Jackson completed the least amount of yards with 3,127. He leads the five quarterbacks in quarterback rating and also touchdown to interception ratio. He attempted 401 passes and completed 265 of them, finishing the season with a 113.3 quarterback rating.
When we look at the five quarterbacks, it’s also important to acknowledge their offensive lines. Most offensive line statistics are based on rushing, but they are also graded on quarterback hits and sacks.
Overall, you can see that the Baltimore Ravens had the best offensive line overall out of the five teams. In total, they only allowed 28 sacks and 59 quarterback hits. Lamar Jackson is an extremely mobile quarterback, so we have to look at the sack percentage rate when evaluating the offensive line as well. With Lamar Jackson at quarterback, the Ravens offensive line allowed 23 sacks. Jackson’s sack percentage this season was 5.7%. The sack percentage is evaluated by taking the times sacked and dividing that by passes attempted added to sacks.
In terms of sacks, the Chiefs’ offensive line protected the quarterback room for the Chiefs the best out of the five teams, only allowing 25 sacks. They did however allow 71 quarterback hits. Since Patrick Mahomes missed two games, we need to take into consideration that the offensive line only allowed 17 sacks with Mahomes behind center. Mahomes’ sack percentage this season was 3.45%.
The Packers offensive line allowed 36 sacks and 85 quarterback hits which ranks about average in the entire NFL, and right in the middle of the four other teams. Aaron Rodgers took all of the sacks that his offensive line allowed this season, since he never missed a start. His sack percentage was 6.0% which is down from 2018.
The Seahawks and the Texans both had bottom tier offensive lines this season. The two offensive lines allowed 48 (Seahawks) and 49 (Texans) sacks respectively. Though, the biggest difference between the two comes in quarterback hits allowed. The Seahawks came in fourth in the entire league when it came to quarterback hits in 2019, ranking only above the Miami Dolphins, Atlanta Falcons and New York Giants. Though the difference between Miami (147 hits) and Seattle (111 hits) is a lot, the fact Seattle made the playoffs behind one of worst line in the league, according to PFF is impressive.
Russell Wilson did not miss a single snap this season, which means he took each of those 48 sacks allowed by his offensive line. Wilson’s sack rate (8.5%) this season was the highest among the other five quarterbacks which speaks volumes on his offensive line’s protection talent.
Deshaun Watson similarly had a below average offensive line this season. Though his line did approve immensely from 2018. In 2018, the Texans offensive line allowed 62 sacks. This season, they allowed 44 sacks which equates to a 8.2% sack rate. Watson’s sack rate decreased from 10.9% in 2018.
Offensive lines and quarterbacks play hand in hand. It’s hard to accurately gauge offensive line individual statistics, so when comparing offensive line productivity to quarterback productivity you have to use the protection rating from the offensive line and compare it to the quarterback rating.
Looking at the line graph above, you can see that Russell Wilson over-performed his offensive line’s protection rate. Lamar Jackson had the best protection from his offensive line and had the best quarterback rating, which is correlated. Based on these statistics, all of the quarterbacks performed better than their protection rating.
Generally speaking, offensive line protection directly correlates with quarterback success. Though, you also have to consider the position groups talent that surrounds the quarterback. The chart below shows every receiver that each quarterback targeted this season. They are color coded by team.
Catchable target rate refers to the percentage of targets that were catchable. Catchable target rate and catch rate work hand in hand, the higher the target rate, the higher the catch rate should be. Quarterback rating when targeted refers to the quarterback‘s rating when the receiver is targeted. Target accuracy is graded on a one to ten scale. Any grade above a six is considered to be a pinpoint pass, making it the most accurate and also gives the receiver the best chance to make big gains. Drop rating refers to the percentage of passes that are dropped by the receiver. The lower the drop rate, the better.
Based on the chart, you can see that the Seattle Seahawk wide receivers had a very efficient year. Quarterback rating when targeted is a good way to compare quarterbacks and their efficiency. You can see that Russell Wilson and Patrick Mahomes had similarly efficient seasons. While the Wilson and Mahomes had similar seasons, Rodgers, Watson and Jackson also had similarly efficient seasons. When you compare the catchable target rate, you can see that the Packers had a big drop off. Their big drop off also exists in the catch rate, showing that some passes were simply unable to be caught and that regardless of catchable pass rate, some receivers just dropped balls. When looking at target accuracy, you can see that Wilson, Jackson and Rodgers had similar accuracy rates. Watson and Mahomes also had similar accuracy rates.
Quarterback rating when targeted is a good metric to use when evaluating whether a quarterback is elevating a receiver or if a receiver is elevating a quarterback. In order to evaluate this, you first need to look at where the receivers were taken in the draft and also where they rank in the league.
Since the majority of quarterbacks target their wide receivers more, let’s focus on that first. Light blue dots represent Houston Texan receivers and when they were picked, dark blue represents Seattle Seahawk receivers, dark green represents Green Bay Packer receivers, dark red represents the Kansas City Chief receivers and dark purple represents Baltimore Raven receivers. All players listed in draft round eight went undrafted.
We can see from this chart that there is, for the most part, a direct correlation between when a player was drafted and their success level in the NFL.
All five quarterbacks play with undrafted receivers. Russell Wilson plays with three: Malik Turner, David Moore and Jaron Brown. Deshaun Watson’s undrafted receivers are DeAndre Carter and Steven Mitchell. Lamar Jackson also has two undrafted, Willie Snead and Seth Roberts. Patrick Mahomes plays with the least amount of undrafted receivers with one, Byron Pringle. Finally, Aaron Rodgers plays with the most amount of undrafted receivers: Allen Lazard, Geronimo Allison, Jake Kumerow, and Darrius Shepherd.
Using the same color code, we are able to see how each quarterback elevates their receiver based on their ranking.
Geronimo Allison and Allen Lazard generate a high quarterback rating when targeted. Their ranking is also the highest of Rodgers’ four undrafted receivers. Jake Kumerow generates a 89.2 quarterback rating when targeted, which is about the same as the other receivers that compare in ranking. Darrius Shepherd produced a -162.5 quarterback rating when targeted and ranks the worst out of the undrafted receivers Rodgers has to work with. Based on what we see in this chart, we can see that Rodgers’ undrafted receivers perform at the rate they are expected to, with the exception of Allen Lazard.
Willie Snead is ranked in the same group as Allison and Lazard are. Snead generates a better quarterback rating than Allison with a 109.4 rating. Snead ranked 77th against all wide receivers in the NFL, so his 109.4 rating when targeted is impressive, especially since that rating is better than another receiver in the same grouping. Seth Roberts is grouped by himself which makes it harder to figure out how valuable his production was to Lamar Jackson. His ranking is 103rd among all wide receivers and his quarterback rating is 91.5 What we know about the Ravens however is that the majority of their talent was drafted. Therefore, while Snead and Roberts were not necessarily holding Jackson back, they also were not necessarily the reason he produced as well as they did.
The Seattle Seahawks played with more receivers and tight ends this season than any of the five other teams on this list. 12 different receivers and tight ends were targeted at some point this season, due to injuries. Malik Turner, David Moore, and Jaron Brown all played wide receiver three and rotated out during games. The three receivers are all in the same grouping, which speaks to the constancy of targets and catches. Moore ranks 112th and produces a 88 quarterback rating when targeted. Jaron Brown ranked 115th this season and Russell Wilson ended the season with a 91.3 quarterback rating when targeting Brown. Malik Turner recorded the second highest quarterback rating when targeted this season and also ranks in fifth lowest in ranking. From what we know from this chart, we can see that Wilson elevated Malik Turner and Jaron Brown.
Byron Pringle is the only undrafted receiver that Patrick Mahomes targeted this season. He ranked 123rd among wide receivers and finished with a 129.7 rating when targeted. Pringle’s rating was the highest among all receivers. With that being said, Pringle being the only undrafted receiver shows how much talent went drafted in the receiver room for the Chiefs. Though Patrick Mahomes did elevate Pringle, their drafted receivers are both targeted more and plentiful.
Deshaun Watson is similar to Patrick Mahomes in that his drafted talent is not sparse. The Texans, like the Chiefs, also target their tight ends more often than their receivers. DeAndre Carter and Steven Mitchell are the two undrafted receivers on the Texans roster that Watson targeted at least once this past season. Carter falls into the grouping of Turner and Pringle and recorded a lower quarterback rating when targeted than both of them. Mitchell stands on his own, the only player near his quarterback rating and ranking is Darrius Shepherd. His quarterback rating this year was 55.5 and was ranked 178th, which is the second lowest of the undrafted receivers on any of the five teams. We can tell by his quarterback rating that Watson did not elevate this receiver, nor did his receiver elevate him.
From this chart, you can conclude that Deshaun Watson, Aaron Rodgers and Russell Wilson elevated at least one of their receivers. We can also conclude that though Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson both have undrafted receivers who played well this season, they did not necessarily elevate the receiver and the receiver did not necessarily elevate them.
Like previously mentioned, some teams like the Chiefs and the Packers are target tight ends more than their wide receivers.
The chart above depicts each tight end that was targeted in 2019 for each of the five teams and what round they were drafted in. Similarly to wide receivers, where a tight end was drafted tends to correlate with their ranking among other tight ends.
Each team is represented with the same color code as the wide receiver chart: dark blue for the Seahawks tight ends, light blue for Houston tight ends, dark red for Kansas City tight ends, purple for Baltimore tight ends and dark green for Green Bay tight ends.
In order to evaluate whether or not a quarterback was elevated by their tight end or if they elevated the tight end you have to do the same comparison that was done with the quarterback rating when targeted and the ranking of the tight end among other tight ends in the league.
To measure quarterback elevation with this chart, you need to know that the quarterbacks that target tight ends more often should have a higher quarterback rating than quarterbacks that rely on their wide receivers more often. You also have to factor in their draft round shown on the previous chart.
Russell Wilson worked with tight ends drafted in the fourth and fifth rounds as well as two undrafted. Jacob Hollister went undrafted and ranked 17th among tight ends this season. That statistic along is enough to show that Wilson elevated him. Luke Willson was drafted in the fifth and started in eight games this season. Wilson’s quarterback rating is just under 100 when targeting Willson, and the two are known for their consistently good Wilson to Willson connection. Willson is also in his seventh season. When factoring all of those things together, Russell Wilson elevated Willson when he was on the field. Will Dissly missed the majority of the season but when he was on the field for Wilson he was lights out. The fourth round pick finished the season with a 146.7 quarterback rating when targeted, which is the closest to 158.3 that any quarterback got when targeting their tight ends. I do believe that the two elevated each other.
Patrick Mahomes targeted three different tight ends this season. Those tight ends being: Travis Kelce, Blake Bell and Deon Yelder. Travis Kelce was drafted in the third round and produced a 111.4 quarterback rating for Patrick Mahomes when targeted this season. Mahomes targeted Kelce more than any other receiver this season and with a 111.4 quarterback rating when he targets him, you cannot really blame him. Mahomes clearly elevated Yelder, an undrafted receiver who recorded a 116.7 quarterback rating when targeted. Blake Bell under-performed this season for a fourth round pick. Mahomes recorded a 65.1 quarterback rating when targeting Yelder, the second lowest rating among tight ends in this group.
The three tight ends that Lamar Jackson targeted this season were all drafted players. Hayden Hurst is only one of two tight ends taken in the first round out of the five teams. Hurst ranked 35th among other tight ends in the league and Jackson had a 117.6 quarterback rating when targeting him. Nick Boyle was drafted in the fifth round and ranks 31st in the league for tight ends. Jackson recorded a 99.1 quarterback rating when targeting Boyle, which is about average for tight ends. Mark Andrews is the tight end that Jackson targeted the most frequent, in fact he was targeted more than any other player for the Ravens this season. Andrews ranked 7th among fellow tight ends this previous season. Jackson’s quarterback rating was 114 when targeting Andrews this season. Based on this information, you can conclude that Jackson did not need to elevate the talent at tight end around him. Though their numbers were good, their draft status as well as their ranking in the league and quarterback rating when targeted show that the way the tight ends played did not positively or negatively effect Lamar Jackson.
Deshaun Watson worked with three tight ends this season, two of which were drafted and one that went undrafted. Jordan Akins was drafted in the third round and is the tight end that Watson targeted the most in 2019. Though he was targeted more, Watson quarterback rating when doing so was only 77.7 that rating is the third lowest among tight ends from the five teams. Their undrafted tight end, Darren Fells was the second tight end that Watson targeted the most. Fells ranked 27th out of all tight ends this season, and recorded a 130.3 quarterback rating for Watson when being targeted. Jordan Thomas played in five games for the Texans this season. Watson recorded a 40.9 quarterback rating when targeting Thomas this season, which is the lowest quarterback rating among the tight ends from the other five teams. He was targeted 3 times with 1 reception. We can conclude that Watson elevated Fells this season. Fells recorded 341 yards with 34 receptions this season.
Aaron Rodgers’ tight end room was impressive this year. The fact that they had a weaker wide receiver room is the reason for that. The packers utilized three different wide receivers this season, Jimmy Graham being their number one. Graham was drafted in the first round and ranked 20th among tight ends this year. Though Graham was the most targeted tight end, Rodgers recorded a higher quarterback rating when targeting the other two tight ends on their roster. Robert Tonyan went undrafted and acted as the Packers’ tight end three this season. Tonyan had 10 receptions in 11 game sand recorded 100 yards in that time frame. Rodgers’ quarterback rating when targeting Tonyan was 107.7. Marcedes Lewis was the Packers’ tight end two this season, and recorded Rodgers’ highest quarterback rating when targeted at 118.4. Lewis was drafted in the first round, being the other tight end out of the five teams to have been so, he also ranks in the top 50 for tight ends. Lewis started in all 16 games this season and finished the season with 156 yards on 15 receptions. Rodgers elevated Tonyan, who ranked 63rd out of tight ends this season.
Since the MVP race is supposed to award the person who really is the most valuable player in the league, we also need to compare fourth quarter comebacks, game winning drives and approximated value.
Approximated value is generally used to compare players at different positions, for example, a quarterback and a linebacker. Since those positions are totally different, there needs to be a way to determine which one of those players is more valuable. With that being said, you should not use approximated value to compare same position players, but it should be acknowledged since we are talking about who should have won MVP in 2019. Typically, any player that has a value over 16 is considered an MVP. Any player between 13–16 is considered a pro-bowl quality player and 10–13 is an average started rating. The rankings go all the way down to zero.
Like mentioned above, we are not comparing value, but we should talk about it in more detail. Lamar Jackson finished the season with a 25 approximated value. Based on his ranking, you can conclude that he did win the MVP award. Patrick Mahomes won the award in 2018 with an approximated value of 22. Approximated value for quarterbacks generally lowers the further into a career a quarterback gets. For example, Russell Wilson’s approximated value was 19 the third year in his career, and now, in his 8th year, it is at a 15. Though his value did increase from 2018 by one point. Aaron Rodgers is another example of a falling value. Rodgers’ career high for approximated value came in 2011 when the Packers won the Super Bowl. Rodgers also won the MVP award that year, his approximated value was 23 that year. Since 2011, his value has fallen steadily every year. Since Watson and Mahomes have been in the league for the same amount of time, their approximated values are around the same, especially since their respective teams have had similar amounts of success in the time they have been there.
Fourth quarter comebacks and game winning drives both attest to defensive strengths, as well as strength of opponents. Quarterbacks who lead more fourth quarter comebacks and game winning drives tend to have weaker defenses that they need to make up for.
Russell Wilson leads the five quarterbacks in fourth quarter comebacks and in game winning drives. The five game winning drives he had came against: the Cincinnati Bengals, the Los Angeles Rams, the Cleveland Browns, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the San Fransisco 49ers. The games against the Cincinnati Bengals, the Los Angeles Rams, the Cleveland Browns and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers were also the games that Wilson led a fourth quarter comeback in. In his career, Wilson has led a total of 29 game winning drives, ranking him 8th since 1960. In every comeback game this season, Wilson finished with a quarterback rating of 100 or above (134.4, 151.8, 117.6 and 133.7) except for against San Francisco in week 10, which he recorded a 86.9 quarterback rating.
Deshaun Watson came in second this season in fourth quarter comebacks and game winning drives. Watson tied Wilson for five total game winning drives, he also had three fourth quarter comebacks. Watson’s game winning drives came against: the Kansas City Chiefs, the Oakland Raiders, the Indianapolis Colts, the Tennessee Titans and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Watson’s quarterback rating was over 100 (115.2 and 104.6) in two of his game winning drives, these two games were also fourth quarter comebacks. His quarterback rating in the other three games were 77.5 (fourth quarter comeback), 92.1 and 62.5, respectively.
With three game winning drives and two fourth quarter comebacks, Aaron Rodgers ranks three out of the five quarterbacks. He led game winning drives and fourth quarter comebacks against the Detroit Lions, twice. Rodgers’ other game winning drive came against the Kansas City Chiefs in week 8. Unlike Wilson and Watson, Rodgers only recorded a quarterback rating over 100 in one game, against the Kansas City Chiefs where his rating was 129. In week 6 against Detroit, Rodgers’ quarterback rating was 90 and in week 16 it was 72. Rodgers ranks 11th in game winning drive since 1960 with 23.
Lamar Jackson ranks fourth in total game winning drives and fourth quarter comebacks, with only two game winning drives and one fourth quarter comeback. This goes to show how dominate his defense was, Jackson rarely had to makeup for their mistakes. His one fourth quarter comeback was also a game winning drive. That game occurred in week five against the Pittsburgh Steelers. Jackson’s next game winning drive came against the San Francisco 49ers in week 12. Jackson recorded a quarterback rating under 100 (54.9 and 86.3) in each of those games.
Finally, Patrick Mahomes comes in last in fourth quarter comebacks and game winning drives with one each. That game was against the Detroit Lions in week four. Similarly to Jackson and Rodgers, the lack of fourth quarter comebacks and game winning drives shows how well the Chiefs defense performed this season. In his lone fourth quarter drive this season, Mahomes recorded a quarterback rating of 81.
There is one last thing that needs to be addressed before being able to conclude who should have won league MVP this season, and that is strength of schedule.
In terms of strength of schedule, the higher the number, the easier the schedule and the lower the number, the more difficult schedule that team has. So, in terms of these five teams, the Seattle Seahawks had the hardest schedule and the Green Bay Packers had the easiest.
One other thing to consider when talking about the schedule that each quarterback faced this season is how many playoff teams they faced
The Seattle Seahawks had the hardest schedule this season, per power ranking guru with an average opponent rank of 13.9. The Seahawks tied the Panthers in average opponent rank yet won six more games overall. Seattle played five playoff teams this year, one of them twice. The New Orleans Saints, The Baltimore Ravens, the San Francisco 49ers (twice), the Philadelphia Eagles and the Minnesota Vikings being those teams. The Seahawks won half of those games, and the losses were not totally on Russell Wilson. Wilson completed 77 passes on 131 attempts for 880 yards in those three games. In fact, in the game against the Saints, Wilson threw for the most yards he did all season (406) and recorded a 102.6 quarterback rating. The Seahawks went 11–5 in 2019.
The Houston Texans had the second hardest schedule this season. Their opponent rank average was 15.4 and ranked seventh in the league for strength of schedule. The Texans tied the Chicago Bears and the Cleveland Browns in average opponent rank and won 2 more games than the Bears and four more games than the Browns. The Texans played five playoff teams this season, losing two of those games. Those losses were to the New Orleans Saints and to the Baltimore Ravens. In those two games, Watson completed 38 passes on 59 attempts for 437 yards. The Texans went 10–6 behind Deshaun Watson in 2019.
With an average opponent rank of 16.3, the Kansas City Chiefs had the third easiest schedule out of the five teams and ranked 15th in the league. The Chiefs played against four playoff teams this season and like the Seahawks, they lost half of them. Their losses were to the Houston Texans and the Tennessee Titans. The two wins against playoff teams that the Chiefs did record were impressive, against the Baltimore Ravens and the New England Patriots. Patrick Mahomes was furthest from the reason why the Chiefs lost in those two games. Mahomes completed 55 passes on 85 attempts for 719 yards. Similarly to Wilson, Mahomes had his best game passing yardage wise in the loss to the Tennessee Titans, with 446 yards. The Kansas City Chiefs went 12–4 in 2019.
The Baltimore Ravens had the second easiest schedule among the five teams in discussion. Their average opponent rate this season was 17, around the same as the Los Angeles Chargers and the Indianapolis Colts. The Ravens played against five playoff teams this season and won all games but one. The game they lost being to the Kansas City Chiefs. That loss can be attributed to Jackson’s performance, since he recorded his second lowest quarterback rating all season that game as well as some of his worst passing statistics. In 2019, the Baltimore Ravens went 14–2.
Finally, the Green Bay Packers had the easiest schedule this season with an average opponent rate of 17.8, which is in the same range as the Minnesota Vikings and the Dallas Cowboys. The Packers played five playoff teams in 2019 and lost two out of the five. In those two losses, Rodgers completed 54 passes on 86 attempts and threw for 526 yards. The loss to San Francisco can easily be put on Aaron Rodgers’ shoulders. He went 20 for 33 and 104 yards in that game and only one touchdown. Behind Aaron Rodgers, the Green Bay Packers finished with a 13–3 record in 2019.
With all of that being said, we can come to a conclusion on who should have won MVP. Though, there is still some things we need to clarify.
It would be criminal to ignore Lamar Jackson’s rushing statistics this season, seeing that he did lead the Ravens in rushing yards. However, the Ravens did not solely rely on Jackson for rushing yards. Mark Ingram rushed for over 1,000 yards which is around how many rushing yards each team’s running back one finished with at the end of the season.
When factoring in strength of schedule, amount of quarter comebacks and game winning drives, Deshaun Watson and Russell Wilson both would be in front for the MVP race with those things alone. I would have Wilson in front of Watson because of the fact that Wilson has more fourth quarter comebacks.
In terms of tight end and wide receiver talent, it is clear that all five teams have endless amounts of talent in each room. When it comes to the quarterback elevating and improving a player, Watson, Rodgers, and Wilson all clearly elevated one or more of their receivers.
In terms of offensive line production it is more than clear that Russell Wilson faced more struggles at offensive line than any of the other four quarterbacks on this list. Deshaun Watson coming in a close second. It was clear that quarterback play was not really impacted for Watson and Wilson when it came to having a below average offensive line.
Based on all of the data given and every analysis and conclusion we have made from it, Russell Wilson was the most valuable player in the league, this season.
