Mac McCarty
4 min readJul 31, 2016

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A word of warning about that. I live in a country (the Philippines) where the voters did exactly what you’re saying. At the beginning of May we were the star of Southeast Asian economies, lived in an extremely stable democracy with a 30 year old constitution, separation of powers, solid chain of command in the military & national police.

Last May, Rodrigo Duterte was elected president on very much the same game-plan as Trump. (Only 16% of the population voted for him, but there were 5 candidates — think about that when you get disgruntled by the two-party system. We have never had a majority president…) He played to grassroots victims of inequality, relied heavily on hacking and a social media army (some of whom were bought in package-deals from China & Russia, others organized by his campaign), won a well deserved reputation for outrageous & misogynistic public statements, insulted & refused to even have established media in his presence (they were so biased, made him look bad and asked the wrong questions), called his main opponent a “queer,” called the Pope a son of a whore & contradicted himself on practically every important issue daily.

But he convinced the disaffected that they needed just the type of bowling ball you speak of…he and won.

Since his election, all his appointments have been of exactly the sort of people responsible for the poverty & inequality he campaigned to defeat. His Secretary of Foreign Affairs — who was supposed to make up for the president’s total lack of experience at anything other than being mayor of a small city — turns out to not be so hot. When the Permanent Court of Arbitration ruled against China in favor of the Philippines, he seemed at a total loss. Since, he has publically (!) told the Filipino public one thing, the US another & our ASEAN allies still something else. (He’s told China something, too, but that was a private meeting.

The military and national police are splitting into factions, the courts (even the Supreme Court) are unafraid of making what amounts to politically motivated decisions with no basis in law, while he says and does things on a day to day basis that keeps his voter base growing and going strong. People in government who go against him are routinely threatened with criminal investigations and lawsuits by his appointees and with rape or death by his social media squads.

Because his main platform was anti-drugs (strongmen always require something to be anti), since his election over 500 people have been shot down in the street by police or vigilantes based on their being “suspected” of being involved with drugs. The president encourages people to shoot their neighbors, has said he’ll sign blank reprieves for the cops involved in the killings and — one of the causes of factionalization mentioned above — appointed a national police commander who advises his men that, if any other cops are involved with drugs, they should “just shoot them and avoid us the embarrassment of a trial.”

Presently, 10 or 11 people daily are shot down in streets, alleys or even their homes on nothing but suspicion. The deaths will continue. The deaths will accelerate — until the president attains his main goal — changing the Constitution.

Well, most people here are in favor of constitutional change, but guess what? While he ran for office as the Strongman who could re-empower the little guy against the crooked elitist politicians, he is now turning the rewriting of the basic law of the land…to the Congress! The very elitist crooks he was to protect the disaffected from — the incumbents, if you will — are going to rewrite the constitution. In private! Horse-trading to be done out of the public eye…

This is already more than anybody wants to know about Philippine politics, though there are many more horror stories to tell. But my point is, that all this is an example of what can happen when a part of a part of a country’s population chooses to roll that bowling ball and hope for the best. Change! That was the battle-cry of the Duterte campaign and — thanks to 16% of the people agreeing — change is now what we’ve got.

I know that not everything I listed above is likely or even possible in America. But some of it is. Believe me, you have no way of knowing which might be possible. As we’re particularly aware of here in Asia, many of Trump’s ideas about foreign policy — I hesitate to call his off-the-cuff ad libs policy — amount to prima fascia destabilization of the entire region, providing a world of opportunity for China. Europe and Russia, even worse. As inured by over 200 years of chain-of-command as the US military may be, several generals have already said that if Trump, as president, gave certain orders, they would refuse to obey.

What I’m saying is that a bowling ball is an instrument of disorder. Yes, the world needs a lot of change, but the change you allow a demagogue who makes bold pronouncements about matters he’s ignorant of, stampede you into, is fraught with unintended consequences — many of which can be fatal, even in the world’s oldest democracy.

We warned Duterte voters before the election that they had better be prepared to stand next to the shooters and get their hands bloody carting away the dead. Some of those voters have already lost friends or family members to this state sanctioned terrorism — some have turned away from their former champion — others, almost miraculously, continue to support him while it is now those most distant (or with something to gain) sign up for the “new order” bandwagon.

If you follow a “Man on a Horse” into the world of disordered change, then be prepared to live with the change you get. Because — since bowling balls never rack pins, they only disorder what’s there — you have no way of knowing what those changes will be.

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Mac McCarty

Purveyor of anecdotal information; pattern recognizer; tool user; into that creative thingy.