So you’re saying that as there’s a flow of capital out of China (capital flight) there’s natural…
Jason Yum
1

Thanks Jason — the prevalent thesis for the past year has been based on this idea that in order to take money out of the country, Chinese citizens are buying bitcoins with CNY to sell them for USD. Whether the Chinese actually do so or not (even if they do, not necessarily bullish since they will be selling into USD anyways, thereby depressing USD/Bitcoin pair), we’ve seen some bitcoin upmoves that followed on the heel of periods of CNY depreciation, so we know some traders traded on this basis. W/ recent CNY/USD sideways, that thesis seems to have stopped ruling the market. In that vacuum, the old vague thesis about Bitcoin as a “new world currency”/regulatory approvals/somehow getting more adoption seeems to have come back to rule the market price, an evidence of which is that come-back of price patterns similar to ones we saw pre-China thesis, when trading was more based on such “brave new world” thesis. However, such “brave new world” thesis is inherently less concrete on what the right price/price move should be compared to thesis based on move of some other asset class (whether right or not, the China thesis & CNY depreciation coincided with the entire Bitcoin upmove so far). So until CNY begins to depreciate again, any upmove would be based on a “brave new world” thesis, which would be harder for the upmove to follow through (for instance you need countries to “legalize” Bitcoin in succession, or some great other one-off event to happen in Bitcoin over and over again, cf. China thesis which only requires continual CNY depreciation, which is not a one-off event but rather a harder to resist economic trend).

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