A Higher Scoring NBA
The current NBA season has produced the new highest league point per game average in 27 years. The average has been on an upward trend since around the 2003–04 season. The league has transitioned from being dominated by a slower, more defensive style of play, to a style of play that opens the game up and operates at a fast pace. The recent growth in points per game stems from teams becoming more balanced offensively. The NBA has never had an overall style of play similar to this.
The league average has gone through a 10-point increase since the 2001–02 season. There are mild dips throughout this period, but overall the numbers are trending upward. The growth became more steady after the 2005–06 season, besides slight declines in only three years after that. In total, the highest jump has been 12.2 points (2003–04 season to 2017–18 season.) This upward trend that has been growing over the past decade is directly linked to the increasing pace per game. The logic here is intuitive. The more possessions each team gets, the more opportunities there will be to convert.
The league’s average pace per game has been increasing every year since 2011. Numbers fluctuated each year prior to that season. There is visible growth from the 2000–2001 season to the 2009–10 season, despite fluctuation. Increasing pace around the league could be attributed to a variety of reasons. Coaches are known for influencing the speed of play by play calling and tactics. Certain players are naturally effective pushing the ball up the court at a fast rate. For example, players that are explosively athletic are able to play above the rim and beat others with their speed to excel in transition. Yet, transition is not the only factor that can affect the speed at which teams play. High-volume three-point shooting causes games to open up. Players and teams are becoming more reliant on their three-point shooting than ever before. The amount of three-pointers attempted per game is at an all-time high this season (28.7 attempts per game compared to 13.7 in 2000–01.) With the previous data showing scoring and pace are growing year-by-year, there must be influences that are driving these numbers up. The increase of these numbers leads to the assumption that there could a phenomenon that is revolutionizing how basketball is played at the highest level.
For a long time, the most dominant players were big-men who operated in the post. Centers and power forwards have had a history of being dominant because of their size combined with strength. They have been able to utilize their strength and size to score, defend, and rebound with ease. All of this comes from playing near the rim. Below is insight on the most productive players from 2001 to 2006, followed by players from 2013 to 2018. The players are ranked by” PER”, which measures productivity.
Both sets of players are productive and affective at what they do. Did both sets of players find their success in the same ways? When the numbers are analyzed, there is a visible difference in the style of play. The player set from 2000–2006 show dominance in certain categories, and being highly efficient in those categories. These players average a high amount of two-pointers attempted and rebounds. These statistics illustrate that these players were reliant on their interior game. The current top ten players still score at a high rate, collect rebounds, but also attempt more three-pointers, and average more assists. This shows that players are widening their skill set by deepening their shooting range. Players’ increased ability to handle the ball and become playmakers is evident with the increase in assists.
These statistics represent there is a movement happening in the NBA. Players are becoming dominant by not having limits to their game. This is different from the previous norm of being highly efficient in a select few categories. The centers who are known for only being dominant in the low post are becoming obsolete. From the data above, one can conclude that the most efficient centers are becoming stretch players, who are able take their game further from the basket. Point guards are shooting three-pointers at an all-time high and collecting triple-doubles at a high rate. Russell Westbrook (point guard for OKC) broke the single-season triple double record by recording 42 during the 2016–17 campaign. Small forwards have become the most productive players in the top ten. They have been able to combine their athleticism, skill, and height to become unstoppable at times. The top ten is not representative of every player in the league, but it does represent how the most success is found. That trend trickles down and this phenomenon expands beyond just ten players. This style of play has given the game more options. Instead of a player being confined by their size and position, they are breaking barriers by decreasing the limitations in which they play. This increased versatility is the main factor that is naturally influencing the increase in pace, which ultimately creates higher scoring match ups. This phenomenon has the power to keep increasing these numbers for years to come.
