There is an issue this election that’s not getting nearly enough attention: enthusiasm. Donald Trump’s got it and Joe Biden wants it. Right now, Biden is suffering from a substantial enthusiasm gap. The question is: does it matter?
Article after article has been written stating that both bases are motivated to come out and vote. They’re saying: all things being equal, this will be Obama 2008. There are a couple of issues with this assertion: first, the polls do not show equal enthusiasm; and second, there are two types of enthusiasm: enthusiasm for your candidate, and enthusiasm to oppose a candidate.
While polls can always be questionable, when there is a consistent pattern amongst them you can usually feel confident that it’s true. So, what are the polls saying about enthusiasm? Well, Trump holds anywhere between a 15–30 point lead in enthusiasm over Joe Biden. By comparison, President Obama in 2008 held anywhere between a 10–20 point lead in enthusiasm. The result: a 7-point victory over McCain. In 2012 President Obama and Mitt Romney both held a fairly high excitement level and the result this time: a little under a 4-point victory for President Obama. Enter 2016 and once again you have a tie in enthusiasm, or, in that case, a lack of enthusiasm. Neither candidate surpassed 50% in “very enthusiastic” for their candidate. The result: Clinton won the popular vote by a little more than 2%, with third-party candidates winning nearly 6% of the vote, most of which went to right-leaning candidates. Simply stated: enthusiasm matters!
You likely noticed in my previous paragraph that even when enthusiasm is tied, Democrats won. This brings me to the second type of enthusiasm: enthusiasm for one’s candidate. Both in 2008 and 2012 the overwhelming majority of Obama voters viewed their vote as a vote for Obama. By comparison, Romney always hovered around 50% saying their vote was a vote for Romney and not a vote against Obama.
In 2016, no one wanted either candidate. So, what are the polls showing now for the 2020 race? Trump’s support from those voting for him vs opposing Biden varies between 65% and 80%. Compare this to Biden’s, which hovers between 40% and 60%!
So, as I stated earlier, pollsters are predicting Biden to carry Obama’s torch and sampling it as if this will be 2008. However; a better comparison would be Bush 2004. That was the last time the Republican candidate led in both overall enthusiasm as well as voting for their candidate vs. opposing the other candidate. So how does Trump’s enthusiasm compare to Bush’s in 2004? Bush’s enthusiasm over Kerry was near 10 points, Trump’s is near 20. Trump’s number of those voting for him is comparable to Obama’s, while Biden’s is comparable to Hillary Clinton’s. For added fun, Biden does lead in one category: amongst voters who say they do not care, or barely at all. He has nearly doubled Trump in that category.
For those of you who are actually excited about Biden: don’t worry, there is still time. Romney was where Biden is at this point in his run and caught up by election day. The question is: will those voting for him really be voting for him?
