LUKA JOVIĆ : THE NEXT BIG STRIKER?
When a 20-year-old scores 10 goals in just 13 appearances in one of the top-5 leagues in Europe, the world is bound to take notice. That’s exactly what a Serbian lad by the name of Luka Jović has done in the Bundesliga with Eintracht Frankfurt where he has been on loan from Benefica since last season.
With 10 goals in just 829 minutes (all non penalty goals by the way), he is second in the Bundesliga scoring charts with only the statistical outlier Paco Alcácer scoring more at 11. The Media is all over Jović, linking him with Liverpool, Barcelona and pretty much all of the other European heavyweights. transfermarkt.com currently values him at 20 Million € but I’m sure if one of the superpowers come calling, 30 million wouldn’t be too much of a surprise.
HIS NUMBERS:
His 1.09 Goals per 90 minutes have come from around 0.79 expected goals (xG) per 90. A little bit of an over performance in statistical sense but not by too much. If Jović had taken his chances like the average player, he would have scored 7 goals which is very good for a 20 year-old striker and not far off from his actual tally. The over performance could also be sustainable with an above-average finishing skill. I expect his xG per 90 to settle around the 0.85-ish region.
He has taken 4.06 shots per 90 which is a decent number for a striker. The interesting thing is the positions from where his shots have come. He has had only 4 shots the whole season which are from outside the box most of the other coming from central positions in the box near the penalty spot and slightly skewed to the left probably because he plays in a two striker system with Sebastian Haller.
He has an xG of .17 per shot which is a seriously good number and quite clearly what he is lacking in terms of shot volume in comparison with some top strikers, he is easily making up for it with the quality of chances he is getting on the end of. Another point worth noting is that he is an able finisher with both his feet as can be seen in his shot types. Moreover 14 key passes are a bonus for a striker whose main responsibility is to score. His xGBuildup numbers seem okay-ish for a striker doing enough to keep the ball in an attacking area.
HIS ROLE AT EINTRACHT:
Eintracht coach Adi Hütter deploys a 3–5–2 formation where Jović plays as a striker next to Haller and in front of Ante Rebić. Frankfurt like to attack down the flanks and Jović acts as a perfect counterpart to Haller who is a real force in aerial duels, with Jović preferring to finish grounded balls with his first touch.
Frankfurt also look to attack the opposition goal after winning the ball and Jović utilizes his pace to drop into the spaces between opposition defense and midfield to receive the ball and have enough time to turn goal-side. Jović can, in such cases dribble against the opposition defenders and alternatively, look for through balls in the gaps created by dragging out defenders. In the picture given below, Jović went on to score dribbling past the 2 defenders by himself.
Jović has very good off the ball movement to disassociate himself from his marker and utilizes the tendency of defenders to move towards the ball by staying and trying to create space for himself to shoot. The most common attacking move deployed by Frankfurt when attending to crosses is the delayed arrival of Jović when Haller is already in the box. Jović prefers to receive the ball in between the opposition midfield and defense and try to utilize the space by either giving out a key pass or shooting himself. This ensures an orientation suitable for shooting with him already facing the goal. Notice how Jović pauses, letting the running defenders pass to create space for himself to score.
STOPPING HIM:
Jović can be contained very well with close marking and not being allowed to turn himself towards goal. This way, he can be forced to dribble towards the wing, eliminating the threat of a malicious shot. With his good control of the ball, it is almost a necessity to outnumber him with defenders to effectively take the ball from him. Moreover, a special attention on blocking crossing lanes and marking between the six-yard box and the edge of the penalty box should be given as this is where Jović likes to attack the most and is the most dangerous. Look at Jovic’s heat-map (courtsey of Wyscout).
CONCLUSION:
Luka Jović is looking like a force to reckon with in terms of goal scoring. He is also doing enough on the buildup front with an xG Buildup of 0.13 and xA per 90 of 0.24. If the 20 year old keeps on doing what he has done, big clubs are going to come calling. His profile matches that of a striker who can destroy defenses with ease with his clever movement and good finishing. Expect him to play for a top club in the coming years, barring any injury or other unforeseeable circumstance. Jović looks like a name that is going to stay on the lips of people following European Football for a long time.
Originally published at panels32.wordpress.com on December 17, 2018.