The New Hampshire Primary: 10 Things to Watch For Tomorrow + My Prediction

1) Under New Hampshire state law, communities with fewer than 100 voters have permission to open their polls at midnight and close them as soon as all registered voters have cast their ballots. Outside of Dixville Notch, Hart’s Location, and Millsfield, most polls in the state will open tomorrow at 7:00 am and close at 7:00 p.m. EST.

2) Betting lines from Paddy Power has Trump as first for the Republicans. He is followed by Rubio (6:1); Kasich (8:1); Cruz (14:1); Bush (25:1); Christie (33:1); Carson (100:1); and Fiorina (100:1). For the Democrats, Sanders is at 80:1 and Clinton at 16:1. According to 538, Donald Trump has a 69% chance of winning the New Hampshire primary. For the Democratic contest, 538 sees Bernie Sanders with a 99% chance of winning the New Hampshire primary.

3) Regardless of who wins or who loses, the New Hampshire’s primary will not winnow the field like the Iowa caucuses did last week. Frankly, the only real numbers that will matter will be the percentage of the vote — finishing anywhere between first and sixth won’t force any candidate off the campaign trail.

4) Sanders will almost certainly win the New Hampshire. How much he wins by, however, will impact the future and the length of the campaign. Donna Brazile said today she sees the Democrat contest going on until May. Can you imagine?!?

5) Team HRC will certainly be changed after New Hampshire. As I predicted before the Iowa Caucus, I sensed a campaign change was brewing for Team HRC. The Brooklyn HQ industrial campaign complex competing with the interests of Planet Hillary as well as the black-hole personality of Universe Bill simply isn’t getting the job done. Hillary received 40 percent of the vote in her victory over Obama in the 2008 New Hampshire. If she is sub 40, it will be ugly, and there will be blood in the streets.

6) Second is the new first for the GOP. Whoever comes in second place in that Republican field is going to get so much momentum out of this that it will translate into earned media, fundraising, and being the establishment alternative to Trump. Also, the media wants/needs a new shiny object, especially if the second place goes to Kasich or Bush.

7) Paid advertising continues to lose its punch and looks to be more and more like a total waste of money. Debates and field operations have been the key tools for moving voters and are having the greatest impact on the electorate this cycle.

8) For the GOP, all action moves south. With Saturday’s debate in Greenville, South Carolina and Bush’s commitment to continue his campaign regardless of the New Hampshire result, coupled with his vast campaign money and the endorsement of SC Senator Graham, South Carolina could certainly by “Bush Country” again as it was for his beaten and weakened brother in 2000.

9) Many Republican campaigns want Trump to do well in New Hampshire for the simple fact they want him mano a mano. All the serious campaigns want to crush the other competitors so they can emerge as the sensible alternative to Trump. Look for more name-calling and hair-pulling between the governors and senators in the GOP contest.

10) Kasich has poured all his energy, time, and money into New Hampshire — he even visited Dixville Notch — a town closer to Montreal than Concord. He has been all over the state, above and below the notch, holding over 100 town hall meetings. Kasich is counting on a strong New Hampshire finish to grab the media’s attention, develop some momentum, and build the case as the establishment’s best hope to win in November. A fourth place finish will certainly depress his long-term path to be the top candidate, but it will still keep him in the mix to be on the ticket.

How I see it:

GOP
1. Donald Trump, 27%
2. John Kasich, 24%
3. Marco Rubio, 21%
4. Jeb Bush, 13%

DEM
1. Bernie Sanders, 58%
2. Hillary Clinton, 38%