Wie das Internet TV, Handel & andere Branchen gleichzeitig branchenübergreifend verändert

Seit längerer Zeit beschäftige ich mich mit dem Umstand, dass der vom Internet verursachte Wandel branchenübergreifend ist, und damit direkt ein tiefgreifender Systemwandel ist.

Das bedeutet unter anderem, dass man immer seltener die Veränderungen in einer Branche losgelöst vom Rest betrachten kann. Denn wenn sich zeitgleich mehrere Branchen verändern, wird natürlich auch außerhalb der betrachtenden Branche das was früher eine Konstante war auf einmal eine Variable. Alles in Bewegung.

Das macht jede Analyse komplexer. Aber hey, von nichts kommt nichts.

In diesem Sinne. Ben Thompson schreibt auf Stratechery darüber, dass TV-Werbung vor einem Problem steht, und zwar nicht nur, weil der Konsum zu On-Demand-Streamingdiensten wie Netflix, Amazon Instant Video, Youtube, Hulu etc. wandert (und TV zum Second Screen degradiert wird), sondern auch weil die Hauptwerbekunden selbst durch das Internet einer neuen (für sie schwierigen) Konkurrenzsituation ausgesetzt sind:

Those twenty years have seen the emergence of digital advertising generally, and, over the last five years, mobile advertising: while this emergence is likely responsible for the halt in growth for TV, the real victims have been radio, magazines, and especially newspapers, which have shrunk from a nearly 40% advertising share to about 10%.

Still, digital and mobile’s 33% share of advertising falls well short of the amount of attention attracted. Digital accounted for 47% of time spent with media in 2015, up from 32% in 2011, while TV has fallen from 41% in 2011 to 35% in 2015. (…)

Note, though, that many of the companies on this [list of top TV advertisers] are threatened by the Internet:

CPG companies are threatened on two fronts: on the high end the combination of e-commerce plus highly-targeted and highly-measurable Facebook advertising have given rise to an increasing number of boutique CPG brands that deliver superior products to very targeted groups. On the low end, meanwhile, e-commerce not only reduces the shelf-space advantage but Amazon in particular is moving into private label in a big way.
Relatedly, big box retailers that offer little advantages beyond availability and low prices are being outdone by Amazon on both counts. In the very long run it is hard to see why they will continue to exist.
The automobile companies, meanwhile, are facing three separate challenges: electrification, transportation-as-a-service (i.e. Uber), and self-driving cars. The latter two in particular (and also the first to an extent) point to a world where cars are pure commodities bought by fleets, rendering advertising unnecessary.

the inescapable reality is that TV advertisers are 20th century companies: built for mass markets, not niches, for brick-and-mortar retailers, not e-commerce. These companies were built on TV, and TV was built on their advertisements, and while they are propping each other up for now, the decline of one will hasten the decline of the other.

Ich habe über diesen Umstand auf Early Moves in Bezug auf Unternehmen wie Procter & Gamble und Handelsriesen wie Walmart geschrieben:

It may not look like this now, but sooner rather than later this is going to become a vicious cycle: Struggling (old-school) brands need struggling TV networks to create brand affinity so their products get bought at struggling retailers.
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> This is an industry-crossing chain that grew up in the industrial 20th century. The chain’s links are getting weaker every day. Because some or all of their attributes are not best in class in an online world anymore. The aspect easily overlooked here is this: This concerns **all** links of the chain.
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> Online retailers, then, building platforms and [other ways for keeping options open](https://earlymoves.com/2015/11/17/from-aws-iot-button-to-launchpad-amazon-is-increasing-its-options/) for whatever future partner companies may need from them, will in the long term be in a far better shape than others.
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> Maybe it is not going to be like a house of cards coming down. We can debate the shape the decline will take. Undebatable however is that the decline is coming. And with it, an immense opportunity for new players.

Wird diese Interdependenz, die zwischen manchen Branchen besonders stark ist, angegriffen, könnte das zu einer starken Beschleunigung des Umbruches führen, weil es lebenserhaltende Strategien enorm erschwert.

Gleichzeitig sind die Potenziale für neue Player, neue Symbiosen und Ökosysteme, enorm. Es wird immer deutlicher, wie wenig im Kern unverändert den Umbruch überstehen kann. (Die Ausnahmen werden immer rarer und damit immer weniger zu Vorbildern für andere.)

Originally published at neunetz.com.