Aug 27, 2017 · 1 min read
This reminds of two potentially related issues:
Investors applying the (ensemble) average probability of new drugs being proven effective to do ROI analysis of *one* investment.
Doctors telling parents that their have 85% (ensemble average) of 5-year event-free rate at the moment of leukemia diagnosis.
In both cases the time average seems to be irrelevant, specially on the oncológica case, if hitting an uncle point is within the realm of possibilities.
Ps: another possible application is with oil rig spills, for doing the risk analysis of new installations
