MLB handicapping style
If you asked me who was the 3B for the A’s or the catcher for the Braves I wouldn’t be able to tell you. However, I can tell you how a team does Game 2 after a L or how a certain team does when they’re a home dog etc.
I take more of a statistical approach when I handicap games. Stats show players & teams routines/habits throughout a whole season. Some teams don’t play well after a long road trip some play well after 3+ days rest and this is why I think stats play a big role when handicapping games.
My unit scale is 0.5u-5u. So if you are a $10 bettor and I have a 2u play, you would be risking $20. If you are a $100 better and I gave you a 5u play, you would be risking $500 etc. I like to keep 98% of my bets the same size In units. Deciding how many units for each play just adds on to the pressure of putting them on the right team rather than having all plays 1u for example.
I don’t have a set amount of plays each day as each matchup differs tremendously each day. I do like to keep the # around 3. I don’t bet 10+ games daily because I think it is horrible money management by Doing so. On a bad day the worst you can go is 0–3; Imagine going 0–10 even 2–8!
When I cap games I usually have about 3 resources i use which are Covers.com, vegasinsider.com & teamrankings.com. They’re a great source to see teams records, what the public is on, line movement, trends etc. I think the more resources you have actually hurts you and makes you over think more than you need to. When I go over a matchup these are some of the things I look for…
- Look for a divisional dog
- Has an underdog been shut out previously
- Is a team coming off a long road trip (5+ games) and are they a home dog (teams usually that come off a long road trip usually have a tendency to come out sluggish their first home game, especially if they are a home dog) example below 7/20/17


5. Make sure you’re not betting against a team that is at home who lost by 3+ runs at home previous game (a team that gets embarrassed at home usually comes out stronger the following game. example: (left 7/18/17 : right 7/19/17)


6. See if a team is on a 2+ game winning/losing streak (MLB is a very streaky sport. Make sure you ride each streak accordingly
7. Look at a teams L10 games (are they alternating losses? Are they on a win/lose streak? Also see who they’ve played the L10. If a team is 6–4 L10 but 6 of those have come against teams with a horrible record might not be so appealing
As a handicapper it is important and imperative to know your strengths/weaknesses when it comes to betting. Mine for example are totals; The way to also check to see what your strengths and weaknesses are is to have all your plays documented so you can go back and see where the majority of your losses are coming from. I use cappertek.com to document all plays (iamako0.cappertek.com)
Some last tips I would recommend is not to go by line movement (just because a team is -120 and jumps up to -140 doesn’t necessarily mean they’re gonna win) Arizona opened at -129 and dropped to a +125 dog. They won that game 12–2 (7/20/17)

Also what sometimes helps me is just looking at a line. The opening line tells you a lot of how a matchup is gonna go (at times) If a sucky team like the braves for example is at home playing Nationals and are only a small dog then that tells you they might have a chance to win based on the low odds favoring a way better team like the Nationals
MLB ALL TIME (YTD) updated 7/21/17

At the end of the day, you win some, you lose some but long as the outcome is INcome
