Mariners Stake a Claim to the AL Wild Card

marcuscleaver
Aug 9, 2017 · 4 min read

By acquiring Yonder Alonso in a big waiver trade Seattle have made it clear that they are here to compete. For their fans this couldn't come soon enough but what sort of a chance do they have heading into the final few months of the 2017 regular season?

Oh to be a Mariners fan.

In 2001 the team won 116 games. To put that in some sort of perspective this year's LA Dodgers (who are tearing up their division, the National League and pretty much anyone else who dares to get in their way) are projected, according to FanGraphs, to win 109 games. The Dodgers right now are establishing themselves as clear favourites for the World Series and the same must have been true this time 16 years ago when the likes of Freddy García, Bret Boone and a rookie by the name of Ichiro Suzuki were putting teams to the sword.

Alas it was not meant to be. A couple of narrow defeats at the hands of Yankees (...always the Yankees) at Safeco Field set the tone for the ALCS and the Mariners were eliminated from the postseason. Still, there were good vibes in Seattle and there was always next season right?

No.

In fact the Mariners have not been back to the postseason since 2001; the longest active drought in the Major Leagues. This year has the chance to be different and general manager Jerry Dipoto has shown that he is intent on ending the drought by adding an All Star in the form of Yonder Alonso to the roster. In the AL West the Mariners may be far behind the dominant Houston Astros (who are looking to confront their own boogeyman by winning their first World Series) but are only 1.5 games back in the race for a Wild Card spot.

Photo: Marcio Jose Sanchez, Associated Press

Alonso, who represents 1.5 WAR (Baseball-Reference) this season, undoubtedly helps the Mariner's chances and could be the thing that separates Seattle from other contenders such as the Royals and the Rays come the end of September. There is no sure-thing in baseball, however, and the coaching staff at Safeco will have some work to do. Alonso had a dip in form in July and only hit .268 BAbip compared to a season average of .301.

There are two issues that need to be addressed in the upcoming months if October baseball will be returning to Seattle.

Hitting Left-Handed Pitchers

Alonso has only had 72 plate appearances against left-handers this season but has struggled to put together a slash line of .188/.278/.406. By way of comparison his line against righties is .286/.391/.557.

This should be less of a problem than it first appears. The Mariners already have a player in the form of Danny Valencia who has slapped lefties around for .297/.368/.505 this season and helpfully he also happens to play first base. This combination should give the team excellent coverage moving forward.

Grounding Out

Alonso has generally had a very good fly ball percentage but a major contributing factor to his July slump was a tendency to roll over a large amount of pitches. By the end of the month his fly ball percentage had dropped by about 14 points to 32.8%.

Of particular concern was the way that Alonso dealt with pitches that were up and in on his hands. In this location his ground ball rate was a staggering 18% in July up from 11% for the rest of the season. If pitchers learn to exploit this area before Alonso stops snatching at pitches there then the Mariners may face a problem down the stretch.

Despite these minor issues the Mariners have made a significant improvement to their roster in a way that nicely rounds out the first base position. The best part is that in a market that has proven to be uninterested in position players the Mariners have not had to give up much on the deal. Boog Powell (not the one who earned two World Series rings in 1966 and 1970) returned to Oakland after originally being drafted by the A's in 2012. After being busted for PED use last year Powell's belated MLB debut came in late-April and 43 uninspiring plate appearances later he found himself back with Triple-A Tacoma. It is hard to imagine that he will be missed by Mariners fans.

This is not the glory years of 2001 and it is a long time since the Mariners were baseball's force of nature. If the team were to make the Wild Card game they would likely face off against the Yankees (...them again); the 'Evil Empire' that has Aaron Judge and arguably the best bull pen that the sport has ever witnessed.

Nevertheless there is now a little bit more hope in Seattle and if there is one set of fans who are more keenly aware than most that dominant teams can find their comeuppance in the postseason it is those who call Safeco Field home.

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