The Greek matter is only another chapter.
We can give to the Greek issue a thousand turns. Over and over. We can put political considerations, considerations of patriotic pride or Germanic imposition on the table. We can turn on the fan. We may even believe everything they tell us. We can. Podemos in spanish.
The matter, however, has a more technical edge than they’re telling us. Greece owes a lot of money. It has to pay by instalments and it has already skipped one of them. The BCE has already said that this is wrong. And this is not so much for what it means to stop paying a fee but for what one expect to get from all of this. It is worse to speak about interests than about fees.
Greece needs to provide some billion euros only in terms of interest on the borrowed money. The amortisation and interest are to be made payable on the 18th, 19th and 20th of this month. They are the bonds in possession of the european bank itself. This is the point of inflection and about which little is spoken about.
Once that Greece does not pay, that it won’t pay, as it did already with the expired fees (1600), everyone is going to look at the rest of the creditors to know if emergency routes remain. It is not clear if the tap will be closed after the Referendum, but it may be. If the Greeks vote to adjust one hole more of the belt, the conflict between politics and reality will rise among the citizens of that country and the risk of having a part of the third world one and a half hour by plane from the heart of Europe will be very probable.
A third world covered with ‘rescue’ but third world after all. An economy based on nothing, a growth plan impossible to apply and a society that believes that it has already paid enough for its sins and does not intend to save itself from none of them. The socialised corruption is part of the problem but those are accused who protected it as persons in charge of its distribution. Now, nobody wants to take his blame.
The Greek people say “no” to the european plan the matter falls into pure fog. It is not easy to make out where the cliff is. It cannot be seen. Probably on this 18th of July. With a “no”, the Greek government would must sit down again to negotiate ‘imposing’ its conditions, the conditions of the people. With this on the table the time will run against Greece since the requests for payment will come and the solutions or agreements will continue far, even further.
The famous ‘Grexit’ is more than probable under a ‘technical’ prism. Let’s see. If they vote “no”, considering that Brussels has already described the referendum as a kind of ‘yes or no’ to Europe, a ‘no’ will be like admitting that defaults of payment will be repeated. In this way, Greece will see itself plunging into a complicated spiral as by not paying it will not receive emergency liquidity assistance to pay pensions, civil servants or providers so that the only way not to stop the state machinery will be by using some ‘official’ promissory notes that, somehow, will be, technically, a new currency: the ‘drachma promissory note’.
From all of this, that has only just started, we can learn several things. In fact, it is good, as we have done it before already, to look at it with a close proximity of which illuminated leaders warn us. We live in a kind of inopia because of forced ignorance. Sometimes for inability of those who explain it and sometimes for bad faith of those who know what is really happening. The question is that things are not told to us like they are.
Now we know that, for much that Brussels is straining to paint with effort everything they do, to reach agreements by dawn so that it looks like that they are working very hard and that the blood never arrives to the river, it turns out that these things can happen. The suspension of payments, the disproportionate reduction in claims, the return to the old coins prior to the euro, who knows?
The Spanish, Italian and Portuguese government are straining to tell us that Greece is very far. And it is not. In 2011, it became clear that it was just a stone’s throw away. The uncertainty will give wings to the price of the debt. In these days the risk premium is going good, but that’s just because the premium sometimes discounts the things with delay.The debt will rise, its payment and amortization, too.
To continue reading traditional press and its analysis is suicidal. It was years ago when absolutely no one said what was about to arrive. Those were the days in which it was clear that everything would collapse and that if you were writing about it you would either be sued or be called a pessimist. Now we know that all this is still not over, no matter how hard they try to wrap it in a cellophane. Comparative data is very crappy. When you are really down and you compare it to the immediate past, it always gives you something positive, but you’re still in the bottom of the glass.
We know that the matter about Greece is financial but it has a bigger generic drift. Productive models, technology and development of a new society which must adapt to a future without employment that is approaching. If we do not prepare gradually, Europe will become a postcard of the past. Those who are in charge now are working on that. Besides that, while this is happening, they are going beyond the people who even are having some guilt and the biggest of it is to have voted (or not) the ones who are mixing up the puzzle of all this.
The worrying thing is that, as in 2011, all this matter will concern in a significant way the companies, engine of everything. For years, the problem is to create employment. Unfortunately, it is being created in the same sectors where there is not made a change of productive model which can make us think that we are going in the train of the future. Now, there is accumulating a new problem of dimensions difficult to analyse. The only thing we know is that no one has acted strategically.
The future arrives. Its tone is absolutely different from the present one. For many it will come and they won’t notice it. Others, those who are already working in it, are going to define the future society. The difference between countries that will conquer their own destiny and others that will live the one that remain to them, lies in what they are doing right now. Whenever Europe is trying to solve something it becomes entangled in an old, useless and legalistic muddy place. Europe is still remaining while the world keeps turning. The Greek matter is only another chapter.