My take, on the current global economy
China
I doubt the world's biggest exporter will have a complete economic crash, mainly because they are the world's biggest exporter. China currently has about $3.104 trillion in foreign currency reserves, which might be less than its all-time high of almost $4 trillion, but is still more than enough to be able to print as much money as they need to save their economy. Why can they print money if they have a lot of foreign currency in reserve? Because if their currency suffers (due to printing too much money) then, they can use their foreign currency reserves to buy back their own currency on the international market, and that will boost their currency (How to increase the value of a currency). Also, the global economy would not care if they printed more money because everyone needs their exports. China has a debt to GDP ratio of about 70% whereas the US has a debt to GDP of almost 130%. My take, China can easily print as much money as they need to save their economy and they most likely will.
Taiwan
I believe that China is trying to threaten Taiwan into submission, although I highly doubt that they are willing or capable of starting a war. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing company is the world's biggest semiconductor company and they make the best semiconductors in the world. They sell 10% of their high-end semiconductors to China, while China buys all of their highest-end semiconductors from TSMC. This shows how much China relies on Taiwan’s, advanced semiconductors. These are used in everything electronic, from advanced weaponry to massive databases. A war with Taiwan will also cause international sanctions and these will have way worse effects on China than they had on Russia. Russia exports raw materials while China exports processed goods. Raw materials can be sold to emerging countries as long as the price is right, but when it comes to processed goods you need developed countries that can afford and use the processed goods. The west also has a lot of companies using China as a manufacturing hub and sanctions could ruin a lot of businesses on both ends. My take, China has always been serious about economic stability and invading Taiwan will cause economic chaos so I doubt they will go through with it unless they feel threatened or provoked by the West. Unfortunately, a test of so-called “pride, honor and courage” might continue to lead to the deaths of majorities for eternity.
Globalization
A lot of people might say that with all the tensions going on globally the term “globalization” is coming to an end and countries are focusing more on their own well-being and economies. This is true, but only to a certain extent. The West might plan on decreasing their dependence on Russia and China, but they are trying to increase trade with others like South Africa and the UAE. The US secretary Andrew Blinken recently visited South Africa to increase trade relations shortly after President Joe Biden visited the United Arab Emirates for the same reason. My take is that globalization will continue to grow, although it might change and adapt in certain ways.
High inflation
First of all, is inflation really a problem? Does inflation have to be a problem? Inflation is scary for a lot of people, but it is needed for an economy to expand and grow. The main problem with inflation is that wages tend to not grow as fast as inflation does, but if they did would inflation be okay? At the moment we allow central banks to print themselves out of any difficult situation and when that printing causes high inflation, we allow them to “temporarily crash” the economy to bring inflation back down. Is that just the way we will continue to do it? Why can’t we all just print ourselves out of every difficult situation? Obviously, some institutions and governments are just fortunate enough to be able to do so while the rest of the world suffers because of it. My take on high inflation: I think central bank’s tightening policy and increasing interest rates, globalization adapting and changing, and technological advancements will end up bringing global inflation down although some countries might suffer a lot more and longer than others.
Russia-Ukraine
I almost feel like it’s becoming irrelevant to still be talking about the conflict in Ukraine. The West is doing well in securing alternative energy sources and the underdeveloped world will eventually benefit from high exports to the West and cheap imports from Russia. All the global economic problems caused by the war will most likely fade more and more as time goes on. What about the “humanitarian” crises? Well let’s be honest for a second, we have millions suffering from hunger and a lot of them end up dying because of it. Ironically we also have millions suffering from “obesity” and dying because of it. Just over 400 000 people were murdered in 2019 globally. An estimated 40.3 million people are trapped in modern-day slavery. Yet despite these and other horrifying statistics of horrible things happening across the globe, we continue to talk about the “war” in Ukraine where the highest unconfirmed estimates state that almost 30 000 people have died. My take, I think the conflict is already old news and the world will learn to live with it as they do with all other tragedies like the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. The only thing I'm worried about is if Russia comes to a point where they use nuclear weapons for advancement, but I doubt it will come to that.
Make or break time for the Kingdom
I believe that the United Kingdom is at a critical point and the leadership they choose will have the major responsibility of steering them through this critical time in their economy. The UK has record high inflation of over 10% annually while wages are decreasing. To top this off, they have a very unhappy population that is currently striking for a variety of reasons, and they are still dealing with Brexit. My take, although I do not know much about the two top candidates, from what I saw Rishi Sunak might be the best candidate for steering the economy in the right direction. No matter who ends up winning the race, what they do after will be crucial for the UK.
Technology might change everything, again.
Technological advancements will continue to advance our civilization despite all the above-mentioned global economic conditions. Technology continues to consistently provide easier ways to solve our problems without sacrificing much in most cases. Technology is driving globalization and will continue to do so, especially with new technology like the Metaverse and cryptocurrencies. Soon companies will be able to work with global employees in a virtual office while paying them in a global currency (crypto). Advancements in AI, automation and robots will also make more and more tasks, that are usually done by humans, easier and more efficient. My take, tech is unpredictable but it has improved our conditions and will continue to do so.
Climate Change
Climate change is no longer a theory but more and more a reality. We are getting record-breaking floods in some areas while others face record-breaking heat and droughts. Many estimates predict “doom” at some point in our near or far future although these might be exaggerated. My take, technological improvements will save us from this “inevitable doom”. We are already slowing global emissions growth and despite the current global conditions, we will continue to do so. Technology will also make it easier for us to continue improving the condition of the earth. Thanks to Elon Musk and everyone else exploring space, we should also soon be able to move to other planets in case the “inevitable doom” does end up happening, but again I doubt it.
Is population decline a problem?
Not too long ago most of the developed world saw rapid population growth as a problem and tried to find ways to limit population growth. Now, most of the developed world has the opposite problem with an aging and declining population. Some countries have it really bad like Japan with a median age of 48.4 years in 2020 and a birth rate of about 1.36 for the same period. This means that the biggest part of their population might have to retire in approx 10 years and that there will not be nearly enough young people to take over their jobs. China has a median age of 38.4 in 2020 and a birth rate of about 1.7 for the same period. The US has about the same median age and birth rate as China. My take, Technology will make up for the shortcomings in multiple ways. Companies in the US that have recently struggled to find workers, have already started using robots, automation and AI to replace jobs where they can. The “work from home” drive will also make it easier for companies to find employees in underdeveloped countries that still have high unemployment and massive population growth.
The Merge (Cryptocurrency)
The Ethereum merge is coming up and it is arguably the most important event in the crypto space since the launch of Bitcoin. Ethereum is moving from a POW consensus that involves miners around the world using power-intensive hardware to validate transactions to the POS consensus which allows users to “stake” their current holdings in order to validate new transactions on the platform. The POS consensus will not only make transactions faster, cheaper and more power efficient. It will also reward stakeholders for “staking” their Ethereum, encouraging people to hold instead of trade Ethereum. My take, Ethereum 2.0 or Ethereum consenSys is what most institutions and hedge funds are waiting for. As soon as Ethereum has completely moved to POS, it will become the perfect climate-friendly investment with an innovative and capable leader (Vitalik Buterin) running and expanding not only the currency but the company behind the currency. Ethereum 2.0 really has the potential to change the crypto industry and maybe the world!