The Second Inning of Bots

What do the next few years look like for conversational UI, NLP, AI and Apps?

The shift

It won’t happen overnight but five years from now it will feel like it did. — Phil Libin

(big hat tip to Meghan Keaney Anderson for quotation above)

The 9th inning of this exciting shift away from graphical user interfaces might be the singularity, and I see the 7th inning stretch as what everyone is excited about today with all the bot hype: a word where chat has replaced the browser.

Today we are in the bottom of the 1st inning, now that the technology is mature enough for the average technologist to deliver a conversational UI experience to millions. However adoption of bots is not yet widespread and the patterns, dynamics and approaches that spell success are not yet fully discovered.

So what do the next innings of this game look like?

How it will happen

Sadly there is no TL;DR here yet. My crystal ball is in the shop and the guy doesn’t know when it will be ready; I really need a new crystal ball guy, I admit.

Let’s play Mad Libs.

__________ will primarily use conversational UI through ________ to __________ at ___________ because they _________

Now we have a framework. Who will use what, where, how and why?

Everyone will use Facebook Messenger to do everything at home and at work because it is easier than using Apps and Browsers.

Mmmmmm …. Maybe? A decade from now? I wouldn’t bet against Facebook but boy that’s a heck of a moonshot. Definitely the 7th inning stretch.

Early adopters use Slack to access data in other systems because it’s faster and more social than using individual webapps

This is more 1st-inning and its already happening. Why? These people grok slash commands and can adopt a rigid input syntax, therefore the cost to integrate is low. Oh and it’s a great developer platform.

That’s a weekend project.

The community is limited but growing. The syntax is limiting but powerful and sets terrific expectations with the user.

You can build a high-NPS Slack integration for early adopters, today.

The Second Inning

So what the heck will this next phase of fit, adoption and user satisfaction be for conversational UI?

What a question!

Here are some more:

• Will people start to use Facebook (and/or) Messenger at work? Anyone I asks says they wouldn’t but Facebook runs everything through Facebook at Work — coin flip?
• Will people expect natural language processing and flexible input? This wasn’t the path for WeChat apps but boy it’s SO FUCKING COOL can we please have “hello world” that passes the Turing Test? Wit.ai though … once again I might not bet against Facebook. Oof.
• Will mere mortals (non-early-adopters) warm up to command line interface? Will my family members happily learn to type /weather? Heavens I hope so, this probably opens up the board more than anything else.

Prediction

I won’t cop out and not make a prediction :)

I think the second inning will be:

Mere mortals use Slack to access data in other systems because it’s faster and more social than using individual webapps

Also I would guess:

Early adopters use Facebook Messenger to transact common purchases in their personal lives because it is easier and faster than the alternatives

And I think the 3rd inning will be NLP and another mere-mortal-friendly client platform.

What do you think will happen between now and the day bots rule us all?