Hi Marko,
Albert Higgins

(A small addendum to my previous reply: I think I understand your point about the 90% probability, and I’m not ignoring your arguments on purpose! My point is that a 90% probability in this specific context is much more rational than 100%, as the journalists in the story I talk about tacitly posit. But 90% on its own, given my (vague) prior beliefs about these kinds of issues, is really high.)