Heading for Brexit. Some thoughts.
Some great highs this past week, great time with the family over the weekend, some very good things happening for Affino, and Iceland through to the last 16.
Then Brexit happens, complete wallop and shows that Britain is massively split between young and old, between wealthier and poorer, and between the better and worse educated.
We’re now in a place where in effect the whole current status quo / world order could be impacted. It’s hard to see much up-side, certainly there will not be any in the short to mid term. Already the leave campaign is retracting it’s big promises, and undoubtedly now the poor in the UK will get relatively poorer. Food prices will be the first to go up now the currency is down 10%.
Britain always was a poor EU participant, the political elite never fully engaged, always blaming the EU for all the ills and none of the benefits, so it is no surprise that so many have been convinced to vote against their own interests.
The referendum happened at a time where we had two genuinely un-inspiring (except to their fanatics) and divisive leaders in Cameron and Corbyn. Neither was able to bring their own party fully (or even partially) along with the remain camp.
Given the importance of the EU to the City, and to our exports Britain is likely to bend over backwards to still have open access to the EU markets (including labour which means free-ish moment of people). I strongly suspect that the issues with border control will still be with us in 20 / 50 / 100 years time.
Being half Icelandic I feel I have a bit more of a take of what it is like to be on the periphery of the EU. The EU doesn’t play nice, if you want open access to the EU markets then you have to reciprocate. All that Britain has done now is take us off the EU top table and hope that we can negotiate a better deal from outside the EU. It’s a big hope and one that’s unlikely to come to pass.
We can hope that a petition signed by more than 3 million (myself included) will help the government not to act on what’s going to be a disastrous EU exit process and run a second referendum. There’s little chance of that though, but it makes a statement. Iceland had multiple referendums around paying money to the UK, so having a number of referendums around big issues is not unheard of in the modern era.
The current uncertainty means no more ‘business as usual’ in the UK, and will 100% mean jobs are at stake and companies will be locating their European offices on the continent rather than UK. It means fewer startups here, and global disruption in the short to mid term, especially when Clause 50 is enacted.
Like all change, especially dramatic change opens up opportunities, and hopefully these won’t all be seized on by the elite who so expertly manipulated swathes of the population to vote against their best interests.
All that said, it’s the hand we’ve been dealt so we have to make the most of it. Best to have eyes wide open, and to react to signs of change sooner rather than later. The early bird will definitely get the worm this time.
