Sanctions, oligarchs, and bringing down the Putin regime
The sanctions on Russia should accomplish two things (i) regime change in Russia, (ii) hindering Russia’s ability to continue the war in Ukraine.
Plainly, the security of Europe is in jeopardy while the Putin regime is in power. Putin’s messianic delusions may fuel his military action in Ukraine (and potentially also in the neighboring states) for years to come.
To accomplish the regime change in Russia, one should understand that Russia is not a democracy. Therefore, the chances of common citizens overthrowing the regime are slim (though not zero). Russia’s power structure is somewhere between an autocracy and an oligarchy. In practice, Russian oligarchs and security service officials, are the two forces most likely to remove Putin from power, if they decide to do so.
And here’s where sanctions come into play. The number one mission should be to deprive the Putin allies and their families of any chance for a comfortable lifestyle. Freezing their family’s assets (especially those in tax havens), disallowing their travel in the West, blocking any financial transactions with them are some of the obvious measures.
The latest round of US sanctions targets over 50 Putin’s cronies. But devil’s in the detail. One challenge is implementation: mapping and cracking down on the web of money flows and personal connections with non-sanctioned allies in the West. Another challenge is identifying the weak spots in Putin’s enclave. While targeting a broad set of Putin-supporting oligarchs is important, the real challenge is getting to the decision-makers in his inner circle. The involvement of the latter may help overthrow Putin in a coup d’état. Inner circle’s calculus should be shifted towards ending the Putin rule.