The Pendulum Gets One Big Push
The Pendulum has been given one big push. Now the world awaits the return impact.
For decades now after the Cold War, the world has known relative peace. The ebb and flow of societies over history is much like a swinging pendulum, between Left and Right ideologies, between the rich and poor, between the elites and the common man. We have, over the years, allowed the pendulum to slow in its swing and to hover over the center founded on a global world order which we now call the status quo.
The swing continues between political parties (representing factions in societies) arguing on both sides of the aisle but almost always, the arguments are between the centre-right and the center-left. Without moving too far to the extremes, each gentle push swings the pendulum a little more to the other side but always with enough room for the return impact to be measured and tenable.
In recent times however, the push has gotten a whole lot harder in strength:
1. Globalization saw jobs moving out from industrial areas of developed economies to developing economies, from man-dependent enterprises to automation. A whole generation brought up to support the production economy now find themselves out of jobs that didn’t just leave them, it disappeared.
2. The 2008 Global Financial Crisis pushed the conversation about income inequality to the fore when taxpayers money was used to bail out big banks who cheated people in the first place. Basically the rich got richer and got away with it. The poor got poorer and got screwed.
3. The Syrian crisis saw the creation of a nation of refugees. With a home that is still under constant bombardment and still run by a dictator that does not seem a fair bit concerned by the millions of refugees that are his citizens, the movements of the refugees into European borders caused such a strain on the system that Europe found itself at odds with each other over the altruistic and humane treatment of refugees but at the same time, concerned at how the large influx of immigrants will cause the anti-immigrant sentiment to boil over.
4. The rise of terrorism that strikes at the heart of cities professes the faith of Islam but does not represent Islam. It doesn’t help that a majority of refugees that are pouring through the European borders are of the Islamic faith. Worse still, there is evidence to show that ISIS infiltrates Europe through the refugee routes which makes the immigration issue all the more sensitive on the security front.
Each push of the pendulum results in a reaction of equal proportion. New legislations are drafted, immigration curtailed, traditions and values adjusted to a new norm.
The problem with pendulums is that with each push, the swing gets wider and if it is not given time to slow, it will never get back to the center. As it swings from one extreme to the other, politicians see the opportunity to seize the momentum of the swing. Right-wing parties like Marine Le Penn in France, the Five Star Movement in Italy, and the Swedish Democrats have all gained momentum on anti-establishment platforms.
And like all swings, the rise of right-wing parties forces the centrist parties to either move far left or to face their own demise. And with each move, there is a further push on the pendulum.
On 23 June 2016, the day of Brexit, UK voters gave that pendulum one big push that one wonders what the return impact will be and how far it will go. If E=MC2 is anything to go by, it will be an equal amount of reaction. The markets have given a foretaste of what that reaction will look like. The Sterling Pound, one leading indicator, fell to its 30 year low against the Dollar. Over $1.2 Trillion dollars have been wiped out globally. The far-right parties in Europe are beginning to seek similar referendums in their countries to be out of Europe.
Worst to come for the UK, the Spanish have restarted the claims of Gibraltar or at least a co-sovereignty over the British Overseas Territory where a majority of 30,000 residents, all British citizens, voted to stay in the EU. The Scots have indicated a second referendum for independence since 62% of Scotland voted for remain. The Irish have already started talk about reunification. With each, a slice of the United Kingdom.
And then, there is Trump. (One that warrants another article on its own on another day)
In short, there is no easy way to slow the swing if someone keeps pushing it. No one is truly in control. The question is if we aid it or if we slow it. The worry is if a push will one day come, one that brings us to the brink as it was before, some 80 years ago.
It was George Santayana who said: “Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.”
I certainly hope we will remember, soon.
