How Al Horford Will Elevate the C’s O
Al Horford’s Offesnive Impact on the Celtics
Like a microwave, the Celtics are heating up quick. Real quick. (*Side note: I thought I was the first to come up with that simile, until I came across this legend.) Drafting Jaylen Brown was huge, and with the addition of the pro’s pro Al Horford, Celtics fans are rightfully ecstatic.
How exactly is Al going to impact Celtics basketball? To answer, I evaluated the Celtics’ style of play and tendencies, along with Al’s, through the glowing treasure that is Synergy Sports.
Last season, the Celtics P&R roll men, were, well, fairly awful. Of 11 offensive “play types” (spot-up, transition, post-up, etc.) that the Celtics utilized most, there was one, only one, area that the Celtics ranked “poor” in. That category? P&R roll man. The roll man accounted for only 7.3% of the Celtics offense at 0.956 points per possession, which was 27th in the league. 27th in the league was good enough for the ranking “poor”, which is the evaluation level the C’s got.
The Celtics had 676 roll man possessions that resulted in 0.956 points per possession. Meanwhile, in the ATL, Horford alone had nearly half of those possesions at 301 with Atlanta last season. He scored efficiently at 1.13 points per possession qualifying him for “very good” as a roll man. Of players who accumulated over 100 roll man possesions in the league last year, Horford ranked 12th*. And here’s a question, where else but in the NBA do evaluators find a way for .2 points per possession to be the difference between “poor” and “very good”? That goes to show how narrow the margin in talent can be in the league!
So, Boston will certainly utilize Horford as a roll man often, which will increase the balance of the offense for the C’s. Expect the roll man offense to increase from 7.3% usage up to around 10–15% and for the efficiency of that play style to go from 27th into the top half of the league. Al punished opponents from this position more than any other. If roll man was Horford’s “Batman”, spotting up is his “Robin”.
The Celtics as a team ranked lower spotting up as Horford did individually, so he should raise their efficiency in that way just a tad. 23.1% of Horford’s offense derived from spot ups in 2015/16, Whereas the Celtics team as a whole derived 19.9% of their offense from spot ups. As a team, the Celtics ranked as “below average” in this category.
Individually, Horford’s PPP from spot ups was 0.929, qualifying him as an “average” spot up player. Consider that all the top spot up guards in the league are also considered in that category, so among bigs spotting up, Horford is definitely higher than “average” per his position. Take Klay Thompson’s spotting up out of the equation, and Al looks better. Through the course of his career, Horford has expanded his game to be more comfortable with the ball on the perimeter, either passing or shooting from the arc. #15 really found his home on the arc last year (exaggeration alert), after increasing his 3PA to 3.1/game last year after having never averaged more than one three point attempt a game any season in his career.
In short, the Celtics will improve their P&R roll man usage and efficiency, and witness slightly more efficient spot up shooting. Remember, this is only part of the equation. As a Atlanta resident myself, and Hawks news follower, I’m fully aware at the respect Al Horford has earned himself by all in the league. No doubt, he’ll make a lot of plays for the C’s, but what may be the most important addition to Boston is his professionalism, bring-it-everyday mentality, and experience that will help young guys like Jaylen, Rozier, and Hunter. If you’re a Celtics fan, your excitement is completely rational, as proven by the numbers :)
Mason Waters
