Fragility in Complexity: Insights from the Bronze Age Collapse and the 2024 CrowdStrike Outage

On July 19, 2024, a seemingly minor software update cascaded into a global technological meltdown. This event, triggered by a faulty update from cybersecurity giant CrowdStrike, didn’t just inconvenience a few users — it paralyzed banks, grounded airlines, silenced broadcasters, and even compromised emergency services across continents. The morning after the world recovers from this digital disruption, a clear parallel emerges with events from over 3,000 years ago: the Bronze Age Collapse.

Both these incidents, separated by millennia, underscore a timeless truth: as societies grow more complex and interconnected, they also become more vulnerable to systemic failures. By examining these events side by side, we can glean crucial insights about resilience, risk management, and the double-edged sword of progress.

The Bronze Age Collapse: When Civilization Crumbled

Imagine a world where great empires stretch across vast territories, where international trade flourishes, and where technological innovations drive unprecedented prosperity. This wasn’t the 21st century — it was the Late Bronze Age, circa 1400–1200 BCE.

The Fall of Troy, by Daniel Van Heil, the Web Gallery of Art

The Mediterranean and Near East buzzed with activity. Mycenaean Greeks built lavish palaces, Hittites in Anatolia forged mighty armies, and Egypt’s New Kingdom pharaohs ruled as living gods. These societies were interconnected by complex trade networks, shared diplomatic languages, and mutual dependencies.

But around 1200 BCE, this sophisticated world unraveled with shocking speed. Within just 50 years, many great Bronze Age civilizations had collapsed or declined sharply. Mycenaean palaces were abandoned, the Hittite capital of Hattusa was razed, and Egyptian power in the Levant evaporated.

Dr. Eric Cline, professor at George Washington University and author of “1177 B.C.: The Year Civilization Collapsed,” describes it as “a world in which the inhabitants had been comfortable and complacent, feeling insulated by their achievements from outside threats, and then finding their world turning upside down.”

The causes were multifaceted:

1. Climate change: Evidence suggests a prolonged drought struck the region, straining food production.
2. Invasions: Egyptian texts speak of mysterious “Sea Peoples” raiding coastal areas.
3. Social unrest: Internal strife likely contributed to institutional collapse.
4. Systems failure: As interconnected trade and economic systems failed, they triggered a domino effect.

The aftermath was profound. Writing systems were lost, populations plummeted, and it took centuries for the region to recover. This collapse serves as a stark reminder of how vulnerable complex societies can be to systemic shocks.

The CrowdStrike Outage: A Digital Age Collapse

Fast forward to July 19, 2024. As the sun rose over Australia, computers began to fail en-masse. The culprit? A faulty update from CrowdStrike, a leading cybersecurity provider trusted by thousands of organizations worldwide.

Delhi airport, India, EPA/Rajat Gupta

The update, intended to enhance protection, instead triggered widespread “Blue Screen of Death” (BSOD) errors on Windows machines. As business hours progressed westward, the digital plague spread:

• In Australia, Sky News went off the air mid-broadcast.
• Across Europe, Ryanair’s check-in systems failed, stranding thousands.
• In the United States, multiple airlines grounded flights.

Within hours, the outage had affected tens of thousands of machines across various sectors — banking, retail, healthcare, and more. The very software meant to protect these systems had become their Achilles’ heel.

Lessons from the Past and Present

Both the Bronze Age Collapse and the CrowdStrike outage illustrate a fundamental principle: increased complexity often leads to increased fragility. As societies and systems advance and become more interdependent, they become more vulnerable to cascading failures.

Key lessons include:

1. Recognizing systemic risks: Just as Bronze Age societies were vulnerable to climate shocks and trade disruptions, our digital infrastructure has points of failure that can trigger widespread chaos.
2. Building redundancy: Bronze Age civilizations lacked backup systems. Today, we must ensure robust failsafes and alternative operating procedures.
3. Decentralization: Over-centralization made Bronze Age palace economies vulnerable. Similarly, over-reliance on single software solutions creates modern vulnerabilities.
4. Rapid response mechanisms: The Bronze Age Collapse unfolded over decades. The CrowdStrike outage was mitigated within days, thanks to rapid response protocols.
5. Continuous learning: Both events underscore the need for ongoing risk assessment and adaptation to changing conditions.

Building Resilience for the Future

To prevent such disruptions, modern society must focus on building resilience at all levels. This involves:

• Diversifying critical systems and avoiding single points of failure.
• Regularly testing and updating contingency plans.
• Investing in education and training to create a workforce adaptable to rapid changes.

We need to shift our focus from prioritizing efficiency at all costs to balancing efficiency with resilience. The lessons of history, from the Bronze Age to today, demonstrate that the most enduring systems are those capable of absorbing shocks and adapting.