Australian public fed nonsense as country heads to “irreversible” decision.

Source: Doherty Report.
Figure 1: The modeling only goes for 180 days, making the high vaccination scenarios look better Source: Doherty Report.
Figure 2: They stopped showing the 80% graphs as almost all the data would clip Source: Doherty Report.
Figure 3: Modeling clipping again at 180 days. Source: Doherty Report.
Figure 4: The totals for 60%, 70%, 80% in the Doherty report are missing data. Source: Doherty Report.
Figure 5: Daily new infections will surpass 55,000. Source: Doherty Report.
Figure 6: Australian Weekly Cases. Source: John Hopkins.
Figure 7: ICU beds required for Covid to go to ~1500 even after aggressive modeling. Source: Doherty Report.
Figure 8: Source: Doherty Report.
Source: Doherty Report.
Figure 9: Doherty Report assumes “unconstrained capacity” which models deaths favourably. Source: Doherty Report.
Source: Doherty Report.
Figure 10: New daily infections (Victoria) Source: Google/John Hopkins.
Figure 11: NSW linked cases by source (not identified in grey) Source: Juliette O’Brien @juliette_io.
Figure 12: Covid-19 Australian Hotel Quarantine Breaches Source: Covidlive.com.au / Mike Honey @Mike_Honey_.
Source: Doherty Report.
Source: Doherty Report.
Figure 13: Likely too embarrassing to show the 80% graphs because the data is already half missing at 70%. Source: Doherty Report.
Figure 14: Phase B. Source: National Plan to transition Australia’s National COVID-19 Response.
Source: Doherty Report.
  • International border caps and low-level international arrivals, with safe and proportionate quarantine to minimise the risk of COVID entering;
  • Restore inbound passenger caps at previous levels for unvaccinated returning travelers and larger caps for vaccinated returning travelers;
  • Allow capped entry of student and economic visa holders subject to quarantine arrangements and availability;
  • Introduce new reduced quarantine arrangements for vaccinated residents;
Figure 15: Phase C. Source: National Plan to transition Australia’s National COVID-19 Response.
Source: Doherty Report.
Figure 16: Delta has R between 5 and 9. Source: US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
Source: Doherty Report.
Figure 17: The R budget. Source: The Hammer and the Dance
Figure 18: Note the non-linear y axis. Source: Doherty Report.
Figure 19: As above, but with a linear y axis shows most of the contribution to reducing transmissibility is from public health measure.
Source: Doherty Report
  • “Little protection against infection occurs, although protection against symptomatic disease is significant, but is likely to be far less than 90%.
  • Re-infection in vaccinated subjects appears to occur at a similar rate as it does for community non-vaccinated controls.
  • There is no realistic chance of herd immunity, given the high rate of asymptomatic infections in vaccinated individuals. This becomes more probable should the current intention of about 30% of the population (US figures) to not be vaccinated irrespective of advice given, be accurate.”
Figure 20: Israel. Source: John Hopkins.
Figure 21: Case rates growing almost as quickly for 2-dose. Source: FT / Israeli Ministry of Health
Figure 22: United States. Source: John Hopkins.
Figure 23. Source: Doherty Report (12th August).
Figure 24. Source: Doherty Report (30th July).
Figure 25. Source: Doherty Report.
Figure 26: Calculations based on the Doherty Report.
Source: Doherty Report.
Figure 27: Garbage in, Garbage out. Source: Doherty Report.
Figure 28. Source: University of Oxford, Office for National Statistics & FT.
Figure 29: Taiwan has crushed delta.
Figure 30: Countries opting for elimination fare better for health, economy & civil liberties. Source: The Lancet.

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