3 down 1 to go — My predictions for US OPEN 2018
With 3 out of the 4 Grand Slams in the in the rear window, all eyes are focused now on Flashing Meadows. Following the success of our Wimbledon & World Cup events, Stox has partnered with Kuende to sponsor our US OPEN prediction tournament. So, before the action on Arthur Ashe Stadium begins, I want to take a quick look at the crowed picks (with over 5 Million STOX invested!) and share my own predictions.
with 3 slams this year split between Federer, Nadal and Djokovic, it comes as no surprise they are the heavy crowed favorites. Murray, the last piece of the big 4, is still fresh out of injury and is understandably lagging far behind. Kevin Anderson comes in last, and despite being a finalist last year and in Wimbledon, isn’t getting much trust.
We can see Nadal, the defending champion, has the slight node however, there’s a reason no one defended the US Open in a decade. After a grueling season, it’s hard to say if Nadal is fit and strong enough to carry it through. Djokovic, slightly behind in votes & volume, is a strong candidate but clenching 2 majors, back to back, is a big ask from someone who, up until last month comeback, didn’t win a major in 2 years.
With such high volume and low return, there’s little upside to go with the Serb. I’m always tempted to pick Federer and despite his (relatively) poor Wimbledon performance, he often does better as an underdog. It was his tough draw and potential quarter final clash with Djokovic that turned me off. While crowed wisdom has proven to show strong performance, there‘s always great value, especially in prediction markets, for anyone who can catch it when it’s off. This is why I predicted an upset with none of the above to win it.
US Open, being the last major of a long season, has traditionally been somewhat of a wild card. A look back at the winners last 18 years, will find 5 first timers , 3 of them “one and done” slam winners along with many upsets. If ever there‘s a time to pick a surprise, the US open is often a good one. This is especially true looking at all the new talents and realizing that at some point, someone under 30 will have to take the title away from this great dinosaurs.
On the other hand and on the women’s side, my pick is much easier and I’m going with the crowd wisdom and clear favorite, Serena Williams. US Open has always been her comfort zone and after her impressive post pregnancy comeback it feels like this is her time and place. I was surprised to see such high volume invested on “Others” to win but that made the incentive for my prediction even more appealing.
Comes September 9th, I’ll see if my prediction paid off or if reality humbles me again but in the meanwhile, we can all get in on the action and make your own predictions.
Stox Community Manager.