The free agent market is opportunistic. It also pays based on perception of value as opposed to long track record. QB needy teams demand a reliable signal caller and are usually desperate enough to over pay. Joe Flacco was a prime example. He could’ve extended his contract with Baltimore at the start of 2012 for about $15 million/yr and $35 million guaranteed over six-years. Instead, he bet on himself. He and the team were reportedly just $1 million off and didn’t reach a deal. He decided to play out his contract, won the Super Bowl and last week signed a six-year deal with $52 million guaranteed and up to $120.6 million in total. Totally ballsy move that paid off as he became the most coveted free agent in 2013 despite never achieving elite stat lines.
Unlike Romo, Flacco has won the big game. He held the best post-season performance passing Joe Montana and Tom Brady. He has won at least one playoff game since entering the league and has seen the post-season 5 straight times from his rookie season, with 6 total of his 9 seasons. He was a Super Bowl MVP. Romo can’t scratch this and his contract is due to the love that Jerry Jones would show to his own son. Romo is therefore one of the most over paid QBs in the NFL. That said, so is Flacco.
You might also want to throw Jay Cutler’s name into the QB news headlines as the Bears announced are actively seeking a trade partner for him. That will end in failure and he will end up released because Chicago will finally see a saving in doing so. His success of lack of it in the free agent market will be pretty big news.
Romo and Cutler are going to be about the same in my opinion with some less stigma on attitude attached Romo and less age stigma attached to Cutler. Romo might be worth a 1-yr $14 million hit for a team that is drafting a top QB prospect to learn behind a proven vet.
Romo has benefited from good receivers, run game and a great offensive line for most of his career and asking him to elevate a struggling team without all of those components is asking way too much of his slow and aged body. But at $14 million for a team with the cap space, a rookie QB in waiting, and some of the necessary components to keep Romo upright might work out.
Garappolo simply is the 2017 version of Matt Cassel but with less sample size. We all know that the Patriots are a system heavy offense and if it can make Matt Cassel (a converted college tight end) into a playoff qualifying QB, then the system is propping up the player, not the other way around. We all know how Cassel struggled after leaving New England. Garappolo may be better than Cassel, but buyer beware. He’ll be coveted, but the highest bidder will still have a largely unknown quantity on their hands.
As for QB needy teams, I’m not sure by Kansas City was listed since Alex Smith is their boy for at least another season. Further, Houston is under water with Osweiler and it would cost them $6 million with no cap savings to divest themselves of him now. Cleveland is the epitome of a QB needy team with cap space and as many QB careers go there to end, it would seemingly be fitting for Romo too. Other teams in addition to Denver and Houston that could use Romo is L.A., S.F., Buffalo, and Chicago.