Potential MLB Trades!
Using FanGraphs’ new research to formulate potential trades
Last week, FanGraphs posted an incredible series of pieces which attempted to place a monetary value on prospects and farm systems. Placing a monetary value on prospects allows us fans to better evaluate trades containing both prospects and major-league players. FanGraphs stopped short of predicting potential trades that could occur this offseason, so that’s where I come in!
A disclaimer before getting to the trades: this piece relies heavily on FanGraphs. Not just their method for valuing prospects as outlined in the series of pieces, but also their ability to scout prospects accurately as well as their ability to predict the future performances of major-league players.
Now, onto the trades, which I’ve ordered from least to most convoluted! Note: player ages are as of June 30, 2019.
Astros receive:
- Kyle Schwarber, LF/DH, 26
Cubs receive:
- Yordan Alvarez, LF, 22
- Cionel Perez, LHP, 23
- J.B. Bukauskas, RHP, 22
It was recently reported that the Nationals and the Astros had a trade-deadline deal in place involving now free-agent Bryce Harper, but it was struck down by Nationals’ ownership. So, wouldn’t it make sense for the Astros to acquire a different left-handed slugger without having to spend hundreds of millions of dollars? And, wouldn’t it make sense for that left-handed slugger to be the defensively-challenged Schwarber, who would benefit from being a full-time DH in the American League, especially since the Cubs are open to making moves? I think so!
Here are the calculation of Schwarber’s valuation as well as FanGraphs’ valuations of the Astros’ prospects:
I think this deal is fair, despite the ~$14 million difference in surplus value between Schwarber and the Astros’ prospects, which can be attributed to FanGraphs simultaneously overrating Schwarber’s defense and underrating the Astros’ prospects.
According to FanGraphs, Schwarber was the fourth-BEST defensive outfielder in 2018 by UZR/150 amongst 57 qualified players, whereas Baseball Savant rated Schwarber as the eighth-WORST defensive outfielder in 2018 by Outs Above Average (OAA) amongst 87 qualified players. Furthermore, whereas Schwarber’s 2018 fWAR was 3.2, Schwarber’s 2018 bWAR was only 1.5.
On the other hand, whereas FanGraphs grades Alvarez, Perez, and Bukauskas as 50, 50, and 45, respectively, mlb.com grades them as 55, 50, and 50, respectively.
Moreover, decreasing Schwarber’s projected annual WAR from 3.1 to a more-reasonable 2.5 over the next three years to account for his overrated defense brings Schwarber’s surplus value down to $49.1 million, which is more in line with the total surplus value of the Astros’ prospects.
As a result, I like this deal for both teams. The Astros get a left-handed power bat without having to pay hundreds of millions of dollars or give up their top position-player prospect (Kyle Tucker) or top pitching prospect (Forrest Whitley), and the Cubs clear their position-player logjam while receiving near-big-league-ready prospects with plenty of upside.
Dodgers receive:
- J.T. Realmuto, C, 28
Marlins receive:
- Matt Kemp, LF/RF, 34
- Alex Verdugo, OF, 23
- Will Smith, C, 24 or Keibert Ruiz, C, 20
After losing sieve… I mean catcher… Yasmani Grandal to free agency, the Dodgers need a catcher to pair with Austin Barnes until either Smith or Ruiz is ready for the big-leagues. The Dodgers are one of the most valuable teams in baseball with one of the best farm systems in baseball, so why not use that minor-league depth to trade for the best catcher in baseball? In 2018, Realmuto led all catchers in fWAR with 4.8, finishing second in wRC+ and twelfth in FanGraphs’ all-encompassing defensive statistic (DEF) amongst catchers with at least 300 plate appearances. The only potential knock against Realmuto is that he is not considered to be a good pitch-framer, finishing 71st out of 117 catchers in Baseball Prospectus’s Framing Runs statistic in 2018 (It should be noted that DEF does not take pitch-framing into consideration).
Here is the calculation of Realmuto’s valuation:
After slashing .310/.352/.522 with a 137 wRC+ in the first half of 2018 and making the National League All-Star team, Kemp came back to Earth in the second half of 2018, slashing .255/.313/.406 with a 97 wRC+. Kemp’s second-half regression is most likely attributable to a 3.4 percentage-point decrease in FanGraphs’ Hard% as well as a decrease in BABIP from an unsustainable .362 to a more-reasonable .300. Kemp is a negative defensively, ranking 73rd out of 87 outfielders by OAA in 2018, but still has value as a platoon bat versus left-handed pitching… just not at $18 million.
Here are the calculation of Kemp’s valuation as well as FanGraphs’ valuations of the Dodgers’ prospects:
Verdugo is a major-league-ready outfielder, having slashed .329/.391/.472 in triple-A in 2018, but is currently being blocked at the major-league level by Cody Bellinger, Enrique Hernandez, Chris Taylor, Joc Pederson, Yasiel Puig, Matt Kemp, and possibly Andrew Toles. Both Smith and Ruiz are about a year or two away from being a viable option at catcher for the Dodgers, with Smith being about three years older and a level closer than Ruiz. Whichever one is included in this hypothetical trade depends solely on who the Dodgers and/or Marlins prefer more, but it should be noted that Ruiz would need to be added to the 40-man roster this offseason lest be left unprotected from being selected in the Rule 5 draft.
Furthermore, including Kemp in this trade allows the Dodgers to decrease their 2019 payroll by roughly $12 million, increasing their room under the $206-million luxury-tax threshold from roughly $7 million to roughly $19 million, according to Roster Resource, while allowing the Marlins to obtain better prospects than they otherwise would have if they were not to take on salary. That being said, given that I couldn’t name anybody on the Marlins other than Realmuto, taking on salary should be no problem for them.
Yankees Receive:
- James Paxton, LHP, 30
- Jean Segura, SS, 29
Mariners Receive:
- Sonny Gray, RHP, 29
- Greg Bird, 1B, 26
- Justus Sheffield, LHP, 23
- Estevan Florial, CF, 21
- Albert Abreu, RHP, 23
- Jonathan Loaisiga, RHP, 24
(Editor’s note: After this piece was published, Paxton was traded to the Yankees for Sheffield and two other minor league prospects, neither of whom is named Florial, Abreu, or Loaisiga. I can’t believe that was the best offer the Mariners received.)
In recent weeks, it has been rumored, along with allegations of discrimination, that the Mariners are planning on tearing down their major-league roster in order to build up their desolate farm system. As a result, Mariners’ ace James Paxton is on the trade block.
Since 2016, Paxton is:
- 14th amongst all pitchers in fWAR with 11.8
- 5th amongst pitchers min. 300 IP in FIP at 2.90
- 11th amongst pitchers min. 300 IP in K/9 at 10.37
- 9th amongst pitchers min. 300 IP in swinging-strike rate at 13.0%
- 4th amongst pitchers min. 300 IP in average fastball velocity at 95.8 mph
Safe to say, Paxton is one of the best starting pitchers in all of baseball when healthy and would give the Yankees the hard-throwing lefty starter that they haven’t had since C.C. Sabathia first signed with them back in 2009. The one caveat with Paxton is the “when healthy” part, for Paxton has never pitched more than 200 innings nor made more than 30 starts in a single season, having made six trips to the disabled list in his first five major-league seasons.
Here is the calculation of Paxton’s valuation:
Regarding the Yankees acquiring Segura as part of the trade for Paxton, Yankees’ general manager Brian Cashman made a comment at the GM meetings that the Yankees’ three biggest needs are “starting pitching, starting pitching, and middle infield”. Well, including Segura in the deal would check off another one of those needs. As for the Mariners, if you’re going to rebuild, you might as well rebuild all the way, ’cause ain’t no such thing as halfway crooks (Right, Mobb Deep and Eminem in 8 Mile?!?!).
Since 2016, Segura ranks seventh amongst all shortstops in fWAR with 11.8. Segura would also provide a contact approach (13.4% strikeout rate since 2016) to a Yankees’ lineup that is currently lacking in contact (22.7% strikeout rate in 2018), especially with Didi Gregorius (12.7% strikeout rate since 2016) out recovering from Tommy John surgery for the first half of the 2019 season. In fact, Segura would seemingly do a nice job of replicating Gregorius’s stat-line. Here are Segura’s and Gregorius’s stat-lines since 2016:
Segura doesn’t have the power that Gregorius has (although, I’m sure hitting in Yankee Stadium helps) and isn’t the defender that Gregorius is, but otherwise, the two stat-lines are relatively similar.
Here is the calculation of Segura’s valuation:
As for what the Yankees would be giving up for Paxton:
- Sonny Gray has struggled pitching in Yankee Stadium (5.98 FIP at home vs. 2.65 FIP on the road in 2018) and could benefit from a change of scenery.
- Greg Bird has not lived up to the hype thus far (0.8 fWAR total in three major-league seasons) and could also benefit from a change of scenery.
- Sheffield, Abreu, and Loaisiga are the Yankees’ top three pitching prospects, all of whom are major-league ready and can throw gas. Sheffield and Loaisiga reportedly top out in the high-90s with their fastballs, while Abreu has reportedly touched triple digits.
- Florial is the Yankees’ top position-player prospect. He is a superbly athletic outfielder, whom FanGraphs projects will possess plus speed, arm strength, and raw power when fully mature.
Here are the calculations of Gray’s and Bird’s valuations as well as FanGraphs’ valuations of the Yankees’ prospects:
Assuming the Yankees non-tender the injured Gregorius, who is a free-agent after the 2019 season, completing this hypothetical trade would leave the Yankees 2019 payroll at an estimated $157 million, according to Roster Resource, roughly $50 million under the luxury-tax threshold, giving them plenty of room to pursue opportunities on the free-agent market.
Admittedly, I don’t love this trade for the Yankees, given that they would be giving up their top four prospects for, essentially, a 30 year-old pitcher with a significant injury history and a shortstop who has already played for four organizations in seven major-league seasons.
That being said, if the Yankees don’t want to sell the farm (or at least their best crops) to acquire starting pitching and a middle-infielder, then may I recommend this trade instead…
Yankees receive:
- Madison Bumgarner, LHP, 29
- Scooter Gennett, 2B, 29
- Raisel Iglesias, RHP, 29
Giants receive:
- Billy Hamilton, CF, 28
- Jonathan Loaisiga, RHP, 24
Reds receive:
- Albert Abreu, RHP, 23
To be clear, Bumgarner is not the same pitcher that he was when he had a 1.03 postseason ERA leading the Giants to the World Series title in 2014. Since his 4.9-fWAR season in 2016, Bumgarner has combined for only 3.1 fWAR over the past two seasons, during which shoulder and hand injuries have limited him to a combined 240.2 innings after pitching 200 or more innings in each of the six seasons prior.
Decreased fastball velocity from a career-high 93.0-mph average in 2015 to a 91.4-mph average in 2018 has contributed to a decrease in Bumgarner’s K/9 from a career-high 9.97 in 2016 to 7.57 in 2018. Meanwhile, Bumgarner’s BB/9 has increased from a career-low 1.61 in 2015 to 2.98 in 2018.
Still, Bumgarner’s FIP in 2017 and 2018 were 3.95 and 3.99, respectively, suggesting that Bumgarner still has value as a solid #4 starter. Furthermore, Bumgarner seemed to make adjustments in 2018 that reflect his acknowledgement of his decreased fastball velocity, decreasing his fastball usage to 34.2% from 43.0% in 2017. Although not as drastic as the adjustments that C.C. Sabathia has made, such an adjustment should help to prolong Bumgarner’s career as a useful starting pitcher.
Here is the calculation of Bumgarner’s valuation:
Along with acquiring Bumgarner from the Giants, the Yankees would acquire Scooter Gennett and Raisel Iglesias from the Reds in this hypothetical trade in order to fill their middle-infield void as well as bolster their bullpen.
It isn’t likely that Gennett will repeat his 4.5-fWAR season from 2018. According to Baseball Savant, Gennett had the fourth-largest difference between expected wOBA and actual wOBA in 2018 amongst hitters with at least 250 plate appearances, suggesting that Gennett was the beneficiary of a lot of batted-ball luck in 2018. Furthermore, Gennett was a negative defender in each of the 2015–17 seasons, according to DEF, but was a positive defender in 2018. It’s possible that Gennett will continue to be a positive defender, but I would bet that he regresses to being a negative defender again.
That being said, despite likely regression from Gennett, if I were Cashman, I would certainly take a chance on Gennett’s left-handed/pull-heavy/flyball-heavy swing hitting a few more home-runs than expected in front of Yankee Stadium’s short right-field porch.
As for Iglesias, his FIP increased from 2.70 in 2017 to 4.23 in 2018, most likely because his HR/FB rate increased from 8.3% to 18.8%, which was the 10th-highest such rate amongst 151 qualified relievers in 2018. Assuming Iglesias’s HR/FB rate regresses to a more normal rate in 2019, his 2019 FIP should also experience a corresponding decrease. (Although, admittedly, having a pitcher with a home-run problem such as Iglesias pitch in the wiffle-ball park that is Yankee Stadium may not be the best idea).
Here are the calculations of Gennett’s and Iglesias’s valuations:
As for the package that the Giants would receive in this hypothetical trade, Yankees farmhand Loaisiga is the prize, but I’ve always wanted to see Hamilton roam the spacious outfield at AT&T Park for all the potential highlight reel plays it could produce, so I’ve included him in this deal for selfish reasons. That being said, Hamilton on the Giants would fill their outfield void (FanGraphs projects that current Giants’ outfielders will produce a TOTAL of 1.9 fWAR in 2019) while also furthering the Reds’ rebuild.
For their efforts, the Reds, who desperately need pitching talent both on their major-league team and in their farm system (only two of the Reds’ top 10 prospects are pitchers, according to FanGraphs), would acquire the flame-throwing Abreu, who would become the Reds’ second-best pitching prospect and sixth-best prospect overall, according to FanGraphs.
Here are the calculation of Hamilton’s valuation as well as the valuations of Abreu and Loaisiga again:
I could see the Reds balking at this deal, especially if they value Gennett closer to his 2018 production than his 2019 projections. That being said, I think that the Reds would benefit from this hypothetical trade, given that they most likely will not contend in 2019 or 2020 with or without Gennett, Hamilton, and Iglesias (making their potential contributions to the team more or less obsolete). The Reds also desperately need pitching talent, which Abreu would help to ameliorate, and an open infield spot at the major-league level for top prospect Nick Senzel to play everyday, which trading Gennett would ameliorate.
Furthermore, assuming the Yankees non-tender Gregorius, this trade would result in 2019 payroll-estimates of roughly $172 million, $98 million, and $164 million for the Yankees, Reds, and Giants, respectively, leaving them roughly $34 million, $108 million, and $42 million, respectively, under the luxury-tax threshold, according to Roster Resource.
Indians receive:
- Maikel Franco, 3B, 26
- Adonis Medina, RHP, 22
- Addison Reed, RHP, 30
Phillies receive:
- Corey Kluber, RHP, 33
- Jason Kipnis, 2B/OF, 32
- Wander Javier, SS, 20
Twins receive:
- Carlos Santana, 1B, 33
Faced with “market constraints”, the Indians are looking to trade Corey Kluber amongst others on their major-league roster, despite winning the AL Central division in each of the past three seasons.
Having won two AL Cy Young awards, Kluber has been one of the best pitchers in baseball over the past five seasons, having never accumulated fewer than 5.0 fWAR in a single season over that time span. In fact, Kluber leads all pitchers in fWAR since 2014, ahead of pitchers named Kershaw, Scherzer, and Sale. Utilizing a fastball-cutter-curveball repertoire, Kluber ranks fifth, seventh, and eighth in FIP, K/9, and BB/9, respectively, amongst pitchers with at least 500 IP since 2014. Furthermore, since 2014, Kluber has possessed the most valuable cutter and curveball, according to FanGraphs, and it’s not even close. Kluber has also been extremely durable over the past five seasons, having never pitched fewer than 200 innings in a single season over that time span. And given that Kluber is set to earn a relatively team-friendly $15.2 million in 2019 and has two club options for 2020 and 2021, he should bring in a major haul for the Indians.
Here is the calculation of Kluber’s valuation:
As for the other pieces being moved in this hypothetical trade:
- Jason Kipnis had somewhat of a bounce-back season in 2018 with 2.1 fWAR after a 0.5-fWAR season in 2017. Nevertheless, Kipnis as a hitter was still 11% below-average in 2018, with most of the gains in fWAR coming from an improvement in defensive performance. Even if Kipnis’s defense regresses in 2019 (as I expect it will), Kipnis still has value as a left-handed platoon bat (96/73 wRC+ split vs. RHP/LHP in 2018)… just not at $14.5 million.
- Maikel Franco has failed to live up the hype in Philadelphia, accumulating only 4.2 fWAR in a little over four major-league seasons, with a slightly below-average career wRC+ and a career OBP barely over .300. He probably could benefit from a change of scenery.
- After signing a three-year, $60-million contract with the Phillies last offseason, Carlos Santana is reportedly being shopped around in an effort to move slugger Rhys Hoskins back to his natural position of first base. Santana has value as a high-OBP guy (career .363 OBP), but his salary is tough to swallow if he’s not bringing anything else to the table.
- Addison Reed posted a 5.11 FIP with a negative fWAR in 2018. After seeing his average fastball velocity dip to 91.3 mph in 2018, Reed probably has no major-league value left. Unfortunately for any team that employs Reed (currently the Twins), he is signed for $8.5 million in 2019.
- Adonis Medina is the Phillies’ second-best pitching prospect, behind only the untouchable Sixto Sanchez. Medina is a stud in his own right, striking out almost 10 batters per nine innings in 2018 as a 21 year-old in the high-A Florida State League, with a fastball that reportedly touches the high-90s. Although, Medina would need to be added to the 40-man roster this offseason lest be left unprotected from being selected in the Rule 5 draft.
- Wander Javier is a young Dominican shortstop who was one of the top international amateur prospects in 2015. He missed the entire 2018 season with a torn labrum in his non-throwing shoulder and is currently being blocked on the Twins org. chart by shortstops Royce Lewis and Nick Gordon.
Here are all of their valuations:
As for why these three teams would do this possibly unnecessarily complicated deal (I told you they would get convoluted!):
- Phillies: Kluber gives them another ace to pair with Aaron Nola as they look to contend in 2019 (and spend this offseason!). Kipnis provides them with a left-handed bat and the defensive versatility to play second base or the outfield, allowing them to mix-and-match Cesar Hernandez, Scott Kingery, and Kipnis at second base, third base, and left field. Javier is a nice-to-have lottery ticket at shortstop just in case they lose out on the Manny Machado sweepstakes. And shedding Franco’s and Santana’s salaries makes taking on Kluber’s and Kipnis’s salaries a little more palatable, with a net gain of about only $7.6 million in 2019 salary, leaving them roughly $65 million under the luxury-tax threshold.
- Indians: They can shed salary without completely pushing the reset button, with the ability to plug the high-upside Franco in at third base immediately and moving Jose Ramirez to second base full-time, while obtaining Medina as a potential Kluber-replacement in two or so years. Despite having to take on Reed’s contract, they would still shed roughly $16.1 million via this trade, hopefully enough to combat those “market constraints” in order to compete for the AL Central division title again.
- Twins: They receive their short-term Joe Mauer-replacement at first base and lose nothing more than a lottery ticket and Reed’s awful contract just for their efforts in facilitating this deal between the two clubs by taking on a little bit of salary.
Thanks for reading and Happy Thanksgiving!
