The Senator Has No Clothes

Millions of Americans are enthralled by Bernie Sanders and his call for a Political Revolution. Young people are flocking to his rallies and blanketing social media with posts about his authenticity and the boldness of his policy prescriptions. He promise progress on the things progressives care most about — college affordability, universal healthcare, and an economy where hard work and fair play are rewarded.

Despite the gridlock in Washington and the increasing polarization of the American people, Senator Sanders tells us that if millions of people rise up and vote for him he can accomplish more than any President since FDR. Progressives are tired of the cynicism and the fighting. They’re ready to change the game so that they can win on all the causes most important to them.

So Bernie Sanders’ call for a Political Revolution is perfect. Or it would be — but like the emperor who had no clothes, the Senator has no revolution. His call is no more than rhetoric designed to appeal to primary voters for a candidate who couldn’t accomplish any of it and doesn’t seem to be trying.

Many progressives agree on primary of the drivers of our current political situation — stratified media and social filters that lead to echo chambers and very little cross pollination of ideas between the ideological ends of our society; liberals read New York Times and watch MSNBC, conservatives watch Fox News and read… whatever. Gerrymandering has let politicians pick their voters rather than the other way around. Republicans have got gerrymandering down to a science, resulting in a near permanent Republican majority in the House. Unlimited spending on elections (particularly since Citizens United) has allowed those with money to buy access to our politicians — if not their votes or their seats.

So it’s natural that progressives — seeing all these headwinds — are hungry to change the game.

In comes Bernie Sanders. Frumpy, wrinkled, and gruff, we can’t help but like him. Incredibly consistent from his days as Mayor of Burlington and through 30 years in Congress, his speeches remind us of a time where we were more optimistic and hopeful about our ability to change the country.

He proposes solutions to some of our most pressing problems: for those burdened by stagnant wages and crippling student debt, he calls for a $15 minimum wage and free college tuition. For those who are finally able to afford health care, but who still wish it was cheaper and offered better coverage, he promises single payer care that will cover everyone, save them money, and never deny them care.

When challenged for how he can accomplish these goals, he responds that we will overthrow the “millionaires and billionaires” — who have been buying our political process — through a Political Revolution of millions of Americans standing together.

Ready to sign up? Before you do, let’s think through what that Political Revolution might look like.

On day one of a Sanders Administration, President Sanders might send his first bill to the Congress. Who will be there to meet that proposal, whatever it is? Well, that will depend on who we elect this fall. There are three possibilities: a Republican dominated Congress like the one we have now, a split Congress like we had from 2011 to 2015, or a Democratic dominated Congress like we had from 2007 to 2011. Clearly the first two options would mean his bill would be dead on arrival — running into the same buzzsaw as President Obama’s American Jobs Act, immigration reform, and gun safety legislation.

So one possible approach to the Sanders Political Revolution could be to lead the people to change their representatives in Congress — electing more Democrats. But as we found out during the painful negotiations over the Affordable Care Act in 2009 and 2010 (at the height of Democratic control of Congress) that isn’t always enough — especially for Sanders proposals that would raise taxes on middle class families. So for good measure, Sanders should be out campaigning for progressive candidates for House and Senate across the country in Democratic primaries, and would need to campaign hard this fall to defeat dozens of Republican incumbents across the country.

But he hasn’t done any of that. In fact, he has not even been following through on his promise to raise money for the Democratic National Committee — which supports Democratic campaigns across the country. Nor does he have a strong history of helping Democrats or progressives get elected — as many sitting Senators like Dick Durban and Elizabeth Warren do.

In fact, the need for a Congress that reflects the values he promotes is not a part of his campaign.

It’s safe to say that electing a progressive Congress isn’t a part of his Political Revolution.

Ok, so what else is possible?

The Political Revolution might mean a big turnout for Sanders in November and sustained pressure on law makers after the election to support his agenda.

Here’s the thing, that’s basically the history of the Obama movement. So let’s consider two events in the history of the Obama Administration.

President Obama was elected with a massive mandate powered by a grassroots movement that saw millions of Americans knocking on doors and donating to his campaign. What’s more, he helped usher in big Democratic majorities in both houses of Congress.

At the beginning of his term, President Obama established a grassroots arm of the Democratic National Committee (DNC) called Organizing for America (OFA) to empower the grassroots to support his agenda.

His first major initiative was health care reform. Over two years, millions of OFA volunteers held rallies and press conferences, called Congressional offices and wrote letters to the editor, all to put pressure on Congress to pass the Affordable Care Act. In the end the bill passed, but only after painful compromises. And that was with a Democratic Congress — a luxury that Sanders won’t have.

Fast forward to 2013. Barack Obama, fresh off being reelected by a big margin, is pushing to pass universal background checks for gun purchases following the horrifying slaughter of 6 year olds in Newtown, CT.

OFA, relaunched as Organizing for Action outside the DNC so it could coordinate with other progressive groups, organized office visits and press conferences across the country. After all their effort — and polls that showed the American people wanted action and supported background checks — Congress did nothing.

Members of Congress don’t care about national opinion. They care about the opinion of those in their districts — districts they’ve drawn to pick voters that will agree with them.

It’s clear that engaging the grassroots between elections to support a President’s policies is no silver bullet — regardless of how popular those policies are — especially if the other party controls Congress.

Back to Bernie Sanders. Could he mobilize a more powerful grassroots movement than Barack Obama and OFA have done over the past 8 years? Doubtful. Far fewer people came out to support Sanders in Iowa than voted for Barack Obama 8 years earlier. And his coalition so far has been far narrower — mostly very liberal, very white, and very young.

So that Political Revolution doesn’t sound plausible either.

What’s left? He could push for a constitutional amendment to get money out of politics. But that either needs to go through Congress and state legislatures or pass through a series of state conventions which has never been done before. Either process would be open to a flood of outside spending making a progressive outcome highly unlikely.

So what else is left, armed rebellion?

Bernie Sanders has no plan and no plausible chance of creating a real Political Revolution. Instead he is over promising long suffering progressive activists — just to inevitably let them down when he loses the primary, the Presidency, or his first big battle with Congress.

So is there no hope for the things progressives care about?

There is hope. Her name is Hillary Clinton, and despite what you’ve heard, she is a principled progressive. She has a history of getting things done. She can make progress, not the grand proposals of Bernie Sanders perhaps, but meaningful changes for the struggling and the striving. She won’t over promise, but she will deliver. She’s not perfect but she is the best person to work through the system as it exists now and to make meaningful progress towards changing the system.

She will preserve and expand on the progress of the Obama era, like the Clean Power Plan to tackle climate change and his executive orders on immigration. Speaking of immigration, after losing the presidency for the third time in a row, maybe Republicans will finally be ready to come to the table to create a pathway to citizenship for undocumented immigrants. If not, a smaller deal could likely be worked out to expand the number of work visas. It’s possibly to imagine movement on trade, taxes, education, and even improvements to the Affordable Care Act.

The most significant way in which she can change the system is by appointing progressives to the Supreme Court that would vote to overturn Citizens United, defend Roe v. Wade, and protect unions and affirmative action. Hillary is better placed to work with the Senate to push through her nominees — and to help more Democrats get elected to the Senate this year. The next President is expected to fill between two and four vacancies on the court. So if you need any one reason to enthusiastically support Hillary Clinton for President, the Supreme Court is a pretty good one.

Our next President needs to be a fighter who will go to battle to preserve our progress and begin to shift the field of play away from the moneyed interests and back towards ordinary people. Hillary can be that President.