The Nuclear Threat

Today, the Public Institute for Integrity released an investigation on three separate seizures of nuclear material in Chisinau, Moldova. The report was brilliant and inspired me to write an article on the much overlooked threat that nuclear weapons pose to us today. In summary, the paper stated how through nuclear forensics, they have determined that the three separate seizures of nuclear material, each containing ten kilograms of highly enriched uranium, have been attributed to the same Russian military facility and they are relatively certain have the same buyer.

Let’s think about that for a second. They have caught three separate attempts, all containing ten kilograms of highly enriched uranium, within sixteen years of each other. First off, if there have been three seizures, all within sixteen years, it is at least probable they were successful once. Secondly, if there have been three seizures, all within sixteen years, all from the same source, it is more than probable this source is still available to provide the material for further attempts.

Let’s assume for argument’s sake the government of Moldova was successful in apprehending 75% of the attempts and one ten kilogram cylinder of highly enriched uranium is still out there. That would mean whoever is in control of this cylinder has the potential to create a sophisticated implosion nuclear weapon the size of the one used in China’s first nuclear test in 1964, capable of yielding 22 kilotons of force. If a bomb like this were set off in the Verizon Center in DC, it would have the potential to decimate the White House, Supreme Court, Washington Monument, Capitol Building and the Library of Congress.

More frightening, this specific case is by no means the only one. According to the International Atomic Energy Association, there are over 20 reports of theft or loss of nuclear material every year. Almost every case has concluded that the perpetrator had the intent to sell.

It wouldn’t be that difficult for a potential terrorist to assemble a bomb either. The information on how to build a nuclear weapon is widely available to pretty much anyone and it only takes your average welder to put the pieces together. The New America Foundation’s Jeffrey G Lewis estimates it cost about $1.4 million to cover parts, pay, and facilities. To put that seemingly large number in perspective, CNN estimates that ISIS makes about 1 to 2 million dollars from oil alone per day.

It is pretty obvious terrorist organizations are interested in nukes as well. It is known that Al-Qaeda has attempted to buy nuclear material. In 1993, Al-Qaeda attempted to purchase Uranium in Sudan with the alleged assistance of former Sudanese president, Saleh Mobruk, only to find that they had been scammed. Then, in 1998, Osama Bin-Laden said in an interview with the Times, “Acquiring [Weapons of Mass Destruction] in the defense of Muslims was a religious duty,” and had met with Sultan Bashiruddin Mahmood and Abdul Majid Nuclear, two scientists from the IAEA and Pakistan’s nuclear program. In court, Mahmood said that he had drawn a model of an Improvised Nuclear Device and told Bin-Laden that it would be hard to find weapons-grade material. Bin-Laden reportedly replied, quite chillingly, “What if I already have them?”

If Al-Qaeda can do it, other groups with similar ambitions such as ISIS and Boko Haram may as well. Many people look at nuclear weapons as a fact of the modern geopolitical climate with mutually assured destruction, helping to keep peace between superpowers. It doesn’t have to be this way. We’ve seen cooperation between leaders such as Gorbachev and Reagan who reduced their nuclear stockpiles by 50 percent work when their nation’s tensions were as high as ever with the imminent threat of nuclear war. If they could do it then, the international community can definitely do it now. Although it may seem the risk of a nuclear attack is low, in the words of Nobel Prize winning physicist Murray Gell-Man, “What is not forbidden is compulsory,” and if we do not eliminate the possibility of a nuclear attack, it will become just that.