The hurricane-prone U.S. coast continues growing and growing

Back in 2015, I wrote an article for FiveThirtyEight that discussed how coastal population had been steadily booming amid a dearth of landfalling hurricanes in the United States. This article came about after moving to Houston in 2012 and witnessing the absolutely incredible growth that had been continuing relentlessly to that point. Houston continues to grow, albeit at a slightly slower pace than in the recent past. So when the Census released its 2016 population estimates today, it provides a nice opportunity to go back and revisit this topic.

Texas continues to add plenty of people. Source: U.S. Census Bureau

2015 to 2016

Using “coastal counties,” as defined by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), and focusing strictly on Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic Ocean coastal counties, these areas grew by nearly 700,000 people from 2015 to 2016. The grand total was 698,903 people from Texas through Maine.

The counties adding the most people from 2015 to 2016 were entirely in Texas and Florida. Harris County, TX, home of Houston, led the way with over 56,000 new people. The other Texas county showing up was Fort Bend County, just southwest of Houston, coming in fourth at over 27,000 people.

The ten largest growing coastal counties were all in Texas and Florida.

Florida dominates the list though, with Orange County (Orlando), Hillsborough County (Tampa), and Broward County (Fort Lauderdale) rounding out the top five counties. In fact, if you took the top 20 coastal counties with largest growth, only Washington, DC and Horry County, SC would not be in Texas or Florida.

In terms of states, Florida and Texas obviously lead the way, with roughly 483,000 new residents in coastal areas alone.

Every state saw their coastal counties grow from 2015 to 2016 with the exception of Connecticut.

The only state to lose people in coastal areas from 2015 to 2016 was Connecticut, which saw a net loss of over 8,000 people.

2010 to 2016

Obviously, there’s nothing new here. Coastal population has been booming basically forever. But it’s important to understand where people are living now, as growth continues and in some cases accelerates.

Since 2010, Harris County, TX again leads the way for coastal areas, with almost half a million new people. Miami-Dade grew by over 200,000 from 2010 through 2016. In fact, the Houston metro area as a whole has grown by over 850,000 people since 2010, and the Miami metro area has grown by over 500,000 people.

The Houston area, Florida, and New York City have seen the most new people for coastal areas since 2010.

Orange, Broward, Fort Bend, and Hillsborough Counties again show up atop the list, adding over 140,000 new people each since 2016. Brooklyn (Kings County) and Queens show up on this list as well, as New York City continues to grow precipitously.

By state, it’s no contest. Florida dominates coastal growth.

Florida’s coast has added over twice as many new people since 2010 as the next closest state, Texas.

Florida’s added over 1.7 million new people since 2010. That more than doubles second place Texas. On a percentage basis, Washington, DC leads the pack, but as for states, it’s Texas, Florida, and then South Carolina as the fastest growing.

Coastal Texas, Florida, and South Carolina are growing at the fastest rate of Eastern & Gulf States.

The next tier includes Delaware, Virginia, and Georgia, growing around five to six percent since 2010.

So what is the takeaway here?

As a meteorologist, seeing that Eastern United States coastal areas have added over 4.6 million people since 2010 is a bit unsettling, especially given how many of those people have gone to Texas and Florida, two of the most hurricane prone states in the country. If there’s a glimmer of good news, it may be that as a whole, coastal counties in the United States are adding residents at a slightly slower pace than they were earlier in this decade.

Coastal counties are growing a little more slowly than they had been in recent years.

But those hurricane-prone places, Florida and Texas, show no signs of slowing down. In fact, Florida continues to slam on the accelerator.

While coastal Texas is seeing slower growth, Florida continues to grow more and more each year.

Most meteorologists don’t need to be reminded of this, but maybe it’s good to see it visually and quantitatively like this. There has likely never been a more critical point for effective messaging and forecasting of hurricanes. Coastal regions continue to add hundreds of thousands of new residents each year, and we have no idea how much experience they have with hurricanes, especially given the relatively quiet period we’ve had since the mid-2000s. In a new world where the news cycle moves at lightning fast speeds (even faster than it did during Hurricane Matthew last year), all of us in the meteorology community have a responsibility to be sharp, smart, clear, concise, and understandable with the information we provide and share should a hurricane threaten the United States. Start thinking about it now.