Chance To Hit — The Psychology of Probability In Video Games

You line up your shot. 90% chance to hit. Nice. You’ve got this. You go for it… and miss. What? How is that fair? These 90% shots never seem to hit. Is the game conspiring against you? Are you just really unlucky? In truth, it’s neither. You’re human, and your mind likes playing tricks on you.

Over at ZAM, I dig into the psychological phenomena that mess with our perception of probability. Here’s a taste:

Memory is a fickle thing. Rather than recording everything, our brains typically store only those things that attract our focus: stimuli that evoke strong emotional reactions, or information we suspect will be useful in the future. These fragments serve as memory seeds; each time we reflect upon them, they sprout into slightly different scenes, the gaps filled with details influenced by the present instead of the past.

Knowing our mind’s foibles is a crucial step in avoiding them. Give the article a read, and build your defences against the trap of irrationality.

Matt Sayer is 50% gamer, 50% writer, 50% programmer, and 100% terrible at maths. You can read more of his articles over at Unwinnable and TAY, friend him on Steam, or tweet him cat photos at @sezonguitar