Syria, the only country within our forecast data with an election this month, is at high risk of election-related violence. The ELection VIolence (ELVI) dataset can be downloaded from our GitHub repository and monthly updates are released on the first Tuesday of each new month. Election event data is subject…

Chad, Myanmar and Sudan face the highest risk of coup this month. Chad experienced a bloodless coup in April following the unexpected death of long-time leader Idriss Deby. CoupCast is a machine learning based early warning forecasting platform for estimating the risk of illegal leadership turnover each month for every…

The REIGN Dataset (Rulers, Elections, and Irregular Governance) covers political conditions in every country each and every month. We update the data set monthly to reflect the most recent political events, such as coups, world elections, and changes in political leadership. …

Of the seven elections scheduled for this month, Chad and Benin have the highest estimated risks of election violence. The ELection VIolence (ELVI) dataset can be downloaded from our GitHub repository and monthly updates are released on the first Tuesday of each new month. Election event data is subject to…

Djibouti, Chad and Niger face the highest risk of coup this month. Niger experienced a failed coup attempt on March 31 as the country underwent its first successful democratic transition. CoupCast is a machine learning based early warning forecasting platform for estimating the risk of illegal leadership turnover each month…

Myanmar, Zimbabwe and Cape Verde face the highest risk of coup this month. In Myanmar, violent repression against those protesting last month’s coup escalated toward the end of February with the military killing at least 18 people on Feb. 28. CoupCast is a machine learning based early warning forecasting platform…

Of the four elections scheduled for this month, Somalia’s has the highest risk of violence although it is unlikely the election will be held as scheduled. The ELection VIolence (ELVI) dataset can be downloaded from our GitHub repository and monthly updates are released on the first Tuesday of each new…

Somalia, the Republic of Congo and Myanmar face the highest risk of coup this month after Myanmar underwent a coup that ousted Aung San Suu Kyi in the early morning of February 1st. CoupCast is a machine learning based early warning forecasting platform for estimating the risk of illegal leadership…

Four elections are scheduled for this month, one of which, the presidential election in Uganda, has a high estimated risk of violence. As of January 2021 we have now publicly released our forecast numbers and event data used to predict the structural risk of election violence. …