Covid 19 update: Hong Kong is the Snuff-out champion, but will it have to suffocate itself to hold on to the title?

  1. The simulation closely follows the available historical data for new cases, cumulative and active.
  2. As stated above, the deaths relate to the first of two phases. So far no deaths have occurred from the second exponential growth and choking off of new cases has been made possible from the extreme measures on social distancing. However, recoveries and resistant do not match the data, because social distancing does not kill the virus and thus up to 85% of infected never know they have had the virus. The model is simulating and adding the asymptomatic infections to the recorded recoveries
  3. The actions taken to limit social distancing have at first gradually impacted infections and the result is a sudden significant reduction in new cases after April 9 (with new confirmed cases of 13 versus 25 on the previous day).
  4. By contrast to our first publication of this case where we were projecting a rebound in new cases, the numbers have continued to drop. Now it appears the social distancing measures have almost entirely choked off any new infections.
  5. Hong Kong is the most extreme of all the cases implementing social distancing. But as in the first publication there is consequence: only a tiny fraction of the population have acquired resistance. Close to 99% of the population remain Susceptible.
  1. the Hong Kong Diploma of Secondary Education Examination (HKDSE) currently scheduled for April 24 -25, 2020, whereby approximately 53,00 students and teachers will be participating in across Hong Kong;
  2. the 5-Day May holiday, whereby approximately 840,000 mainlanders crossed border to Hong Kong in the first 3 days last year (2019) and generated sales of over USD 5.1 Bn in May last year;
  3. looking further ahead, there will be the celebration (and associated civil activities) on and about the same time as the anniversary of the Hong Kong Handover on the July 1;
Hong Kong model Scenario Dashboard



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Maurice Glucksman

Maurice Glucksman

Investor and analyst focused on disruption. Former equity analyst and management consultant with Engineering and Management degrees from MIT and U of Michigan