Covid-19: How is it spreading in your Local Area?

  1. For the latest version of the COVID-19 Infection System model (any web browser except Microsoft Edge)
  2. How to videos
  3. Model Instructions
  4. Supporting spreadsheet to collate data inputs for your local area
  1. There are remarkable similarities: in each city the same processes are unfolding. The parameter changes required to adapt the model in each case can be counted on one hand. We have created videos and guides to help you determine these.
  2. There are surprising differences. Despite declared similarities in announcements and enforcement of social distancing, each case is unique, and the characteristics of each case inform the others.
  3. The future path for each city is remarkably different: Lombardy and London appear to be on a similar future track with a long but eventual path to full immunity. Hong Kong and New York City could not be more different: Hong Kong has avoided much of the problems in other cities so far but it appears to have a serious stored up problem: almost no one is immune and it stays that way without a medical breakthrough. New York City seems to be on a fast track to full immunity.
  4. We still have much to do to check and re-check everything for the third or fourth time and each time we do that we see something new. We believe these results are robust but we can’t guarantee it. We invite others to check.
  1. We are a group of 24 people who have contributed time, personal contacts and we believe the necessary and sufficient multidisciplinary skills to create these tools and make them useful. You must always be mindful that the underlying tool is a model. It is not reality. All models are by definition an abstraction and in that sense they are only an indicative simplification of the real world. This is true of every model ever created by anyone. Even the fundamental laws of physics and chemistry are models and are constantly challenged and improved. We believe the tools we have created are useful. We hope you will take them, use them, and they will be useful to you.
  2. A roadmap for our next steps will be added shortly in Appendix 2. Please have a look at and let us know if you have suggestions for what we do next.
  3. Please also get in touch if you have questions, we will do our best to answer them.
  4. Please share your inputs and results with us if apply the tools to your area.
  1. Lombardy Case (with link to the model) is first because it is the place where it first became clear that Covid 19 was spreading fast even after China had taken steps to control the spread. The subsequent actions in Lombardy have had measurable impact and have been adopted and localised elsewhere. Lombardy also publishes very detailed information on the progression of Covid-19, making it a sound benchmark for other cases.
  2. Hong Kong Case is second because it is one of the success stories for containing Covid -19 but even now, despite enforcement of strict social distancing, there is a second outbreak happening and even stricter rules were introduced a few days ago. Hong Kong Model
  3. London Case (work in progress) is third because it is where many of us live and we are trying to understand what is happening here and we have good access to data and advice. London Model
  4. New York City Case (work in progress) is fourth because it is tragically a hot spot and one of our team is on the ground there with good access to local information. New York City Model

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Maurice Glucksman

Maurice Glucksman

Investor and analyst focused on disruption. Former equity analyst and management consultant with Engineering and Management degrees from MIT and U of Michigan