Fashion in 2040 (Part 3/3)
“It’s absolutely pie in the sky, no question about it. You need pies in the sky to help us go forward.” — William McDonough (Architect, leader in sustainable development and design, and pioneer of Cradle-to-Cradle design)
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As we have explored in Part 1, fashion is emblematic of the problems with human industry today. An overhaul of the current system of fashion is a question of when not if: the industry’s current trajectory means emissions in 2030 will be 50% higher than the level required to hit the 1.5 degree pathway. Projecting out further, the industry would account for more than 26% of the carbon budget associated with a 2°C pathway by 2050 (the upper bound target of the Paris Climate Agreement). Something’s got to give.
A vision helps us open our imaginations and drive towards innovation.So what will replace the current fashion value cycle?
As discussed in Part 2, we are already seeing the rapid growth of resale/second hand (set to be bigger than fast fashion by 2029) and the emergence of rental at scale. These trends are only headed in one direction and will be a core, natural way for us to consume fashion by 2040.
But this is not enough. So what else?
Fashion is a complicated system and the majority of its CO2 emissions (c.71%) come from upstream production unseen by the consumer or, supposedly, the retailer (e.g. material, yarn and fabric production and the processing of fabrics). However, for my vision of Fashion in 2040, I have decided to focus on changes the consumer will notice to help bring it to life a little more. This is not supposed to be a design-centric view of futuristic fashion, but rather a thought exercise to help us drive towards a better fashion system.
Digital IDs
Right now, once a retailer sells you a piece of clothing, they have no idea what happens to it. After a very supportive sales process — knowledgeable well-dressed sales assistants helping you, a curated online experience with outfit recommendations, virtual try-ons and exciting, branded packaging — once the item goes out the door, the retailer loses all connection to their product.
This will change.
In the future, every item of clothing will have a digital ID.
I’ll use an example of a man and his favourite shirt. When our male consumer scans the digital ID printed on his shirt tag (think QR code), he will be directed to a personalised, branded page with lots of engaging video and photo content that explains:
- His shirt’s background — materials used, country of origin, production process, carbon footprint and the narrative behind the design
- How he should best look after his shirt — washing and care instructions (lower temperature washes and no tumble drying), repair options (including from brand itself)
- How he can best wear his shirt — style tips and outfit inspiration
- His options to sell or dispose of his shirt — brand buyback price, recent 3rd party resale prices for same item, other recycling options
- Other items he has purchased — he could click on these to receive the same information for those items
This will enable fashion brands to build strong, extended relationships with their customers — both first and secondhand customers — through providing useful information via the digital ID platform.
In addition, brands will better understand the life cycle (when product required repair, was listed on resale website, was sent to recycling facility etc) as well as faults of their products through offering their own repairs services (like Patagonia and Nudie Jeans do now) and receiving customer feedback.
Other parts of the fashion value cycle will benefit too:
- Resale platforms — the most popular way to buy clothes in the future — would use the digital IDs to streamline their processing time (one scan and they know everything about the item such as material, year sold etc) and check authentication (avoiding the lawsuits).
- Recyclers will have cameras that automatically scan clothing and separate items according to material make-up for more effective up-cycling.
- All the data collected will allow governments to legislate for material use to facilitate up-cycling of clothing to facilitate the industry’s move towards a fully circular system. Fashion brands will be compelled to design with the end of life in mind.
Excitingly, this is already underway with companies like EON and their platform CircularID, which launched last year. In the future, full transparency over a product’s life cycle and an extended customer-brand relationship will be the norm.
Local, on-demand supply chains
Fashion’s current system of placing orders based on projected demand will not last.
Although inventory planning has advanced with the rise of AI and better data collection, the idea that you can accurately predict demand is a falsehood with brands typically overproducing by about 40 percent each season. This has reached new levels during Covid with retailers cancelling orders and online sales not making up the difference leaving brands sitting on huge inventories.
A massive waste of both our limited resources and (unlimited) money.
There has been a lot of talk during Covid of how fashion brands will adjust their production and ordering after the painful Covid experience. By 2040, I predict two production models will be adopted by businesses: permanent collections and local, on-demand supply chains.
Permanent collections will allow retailers to have something for consumers to buy immediately in-store and online while removing the issue of seasonal deadstock. This is a model currently instituted by up-and-coming brands like Asket, who spend a lot of time considering which items to add to their permanent collection and focus on refining their core products rather than producing bi-annual collections each year. Simple, timeless items like white t-shirts and basics like underwear and socks can be produced in larger quantities and kept as inventory as they are never going out of fashion — and so won’t become unsold inventory.
However, for items outside permanent collections, there needs to be a solution. This role will increasingly be filled by local, on-demand supply chains. This flips the current fashion production process on its head: instead of making products to sell, on-demand allows brands to sell products and then make them. This means no inventory and no warehousing — a win for a company’s bottom line and the environment.
Customers will be able to try on outfits via AR on their phones or smart mirrors in-store, get their precise measurements taken and place their order. The factory will get to work and, depending on the locality of the factory and complexity of the item, the customer can expect it on their doorstep from within a few days to a few of weeks. This new process will also allow for greater personalisation as well, which will mean a better fit for the customer and longer usage (we are less inclined to throw something away that has been made for us).
This is already happening in eyewear with King Children and Wires Glasses, and Amazon patented an on-demand fashion factory to the collective gulp of the fashion industry three years ago. It’s coming…
And a few other thoughts…
Some quick-fire Fashion 2040 thoughts…
Circularity
I have discussed circularity within my previous two articles on the fashion industry so I will (try) to keep this brief. Tough when it’s just the goddamn future! :)
Circularity will be the central tenet of fashion brands by 2040.
The core principle within circularity is that waste is a design flaw. Resources are not limitless (there is only so much land, water, minerals etc) and therefore resources need to be re-used again and again once they have been extracted or created if we are attain/retain “prosperity in a world of finite resources”. Right now in the global economy, less than 25% of resources become long-lasting products (e.g. buildings, cars) and less than 10% cycles back into the economy. The rest becomes unrecoverable waste (read: landfill or incineration). Think that’s bad? Fashion is even worse — only 1% of material used to produce clothing is recycled into new clothing.
This will completely change by 2040 with most clothes using recycled materials.
Brands like Reformation have made a big splash through their transparency around material use and drive for more sustainable fashion (although they are not perfect). Their aim is to produce 75% of their products with A (“All Stars”) or B (“Better Than Most”) materials, which include recycled cotton, leather, wool, polyester and nylon as well as deadstock materials (i.e. unsold inventory). This will become the norm by 2040.
Smaller companies, such as the shoe brand, Thousand Fell, are good examples of a circular future through their drive for full-cycle footwear. They offer customers credit for sending back (free of charge) their sneakers at their end of life to stop them going to landfill. This is also good for business — Thousand Fell keep the relationship with their customers who are incentivised to purchase again from them using the credit.
Mono Fabrics
Look at the care label of the top you are wearing. What is it made of? If it is 100% of the same material, well done. This makes it MUCH easier to recycle.
Combined with natural, non-chemical dyes (or no dyes at all), Fashion in 2040 will produce a much larger number of mono fabric items to facilitate end of life recycling.
Minimum % of Recycled Fabric
There will be rules requiring a minimum percentage of recycled fabrics within fashion items. This could be anywhere from 20–75% by 2040, which drive the fashion value chains drive to produce with the end in mind.
Positive Externalities
Here’s a fun one. Fashion can have an environmental impact while it is being worn.
This has started already: for example, ECOALF (a Spanish fashion brand focused on sustainability) has produced a cap that purifies the air as you wear it. Through a partnership with PURETi, which has developed a material that reacts with UV light (like the sun) to gobble up contaminants and air pollutants (like Nitrous Oxide), you can passively clean the air. Multi-tasking!
(If you want a better explanation, check out their process breakdown here.)
Natural Colours (no dyes)
The fashion supply chain uses a lot of water and chemicals to produce that beautiful red, black or white t-shirt you just admired on the clothing rack. As much as 200 tons of water are used per ton of fabric in the textile industry (!) and the majority of this is utilised during the dyeing phase, which uses the water and toxic chemicals to produce synthetically dyed products. The waste water is typically then pumped out into waterways untreated. This is why over 70% of the rivers are polluted in China.
This will have to change. Natural dyes (from things like plants, seeds, fruits and bark) are being scaled, but currently they still require chemicals (called “mordants”) to fix the colour to the textile.
So, one vision for Fashion in 2040 is more natural coloured clothing — i.e. no dyes. For example, natural (beige) cotton t-shirts could become much more of the norm (sadly this was the best example picture I could find at the moment —there is a lot more that can be done here).
Cultural Shift
Finally, there will be a cultural shift. By 2040, fashion imagery will reflect the desirable sustainable lifestyle.
What to expect? Well, how about fashion shoots shifting to local locations with slow travel prized and showcased. The journey will become meaningful again — even romanticised — as boats and trains (the green alternative to flying) make a comeback. The train from Rome to Palermo or Greek island ferries will never be more popular.
Sustainable fashion within culture is slowly starting to happen as highlighted by the Oscars back in February (yes, remember those pre-Covid times) and a growing list of high-profile celebrities using their platform for good. We also can’t forget Macklemore’s 2012 hit “Thrift Shop,” which was way ahead of the times. We need more of this.
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What do you think Fashion in 2040 will look like?
