Lord Petyr Baelish: A Game Theoretic Explanation
Consider a special setting of Weighted Voting game. Let there be a democracy wherein there are a large number of political parties and none get an absolute majority in the election. Coalitions seem like the only solution. But there is a catch. Not every party is having friendly terms with every other party. Therefore, the possibility of the grand coalition is out of the picture. But who can benefit the most from such a political structure? Definitely, the one who plays around with the mutual chemistry among other players.
Doesn’t this framework summarize well the politics of Westeros? Let’s go back to Season 1. After disposing of the “mad king” Aerys, Robert Baratheon is sitting on the throne, Cersei Lannister is married to Robert, her father Tywin Lannister is controlling the army, Jon Arryn (Lord of Vale) is Hand of the King and Ned Stark (Lord of Winterfell) is Warden of the North. The Iron Throne is under the control of the great houses of Westeros with key players being Baratheons, Lannisters, Arryns and Starks. The situation is in Nash equilibrium with no house in a possibility to deviate since no other house is powerful enough to substitute another.
Now comes in the picture Lord Petyr Baelish “Littlefinger”. Coming from the modest non-royalty background, Baelish made up his way and is currently the Master of Coins under Robert Baratheon. He was a skilled manipulator and used his ownership of brothels in King’s Landing to both accrue intelligence on political rivals and acquire vast wealth. But deep inside he aspires to rule the Seven Kingdoms. He says in Season 1 Episode 7
“You know what I learned losing that duel? I learned that I’ll never win. Not that way. That’s their game, their rules. I’m not going to fight them, I’m going to f*ck them. That’s what I know, that’s what I am. And only by admitting what we are can we get what we want.”
Almost everyone in the audience hates him as he is a cunning, Machiavellian, unpredictable, and ruthless manipulator of court politics. But frankly, he is my favourite character in the realm of Game of Thrones as he is the cause of all changes. Won’t it be exciting to decipher his gameplan!
Let us first look at Lord Baelish’s interactions with Starks throughout the seven seasons: (Y means Yes and N means No)
Let us now look at Lord Baelish’s interactions with Lannisters throughout the seven seasons:
His game plan against both Starks and Lannisters can be easily summarised using the following normal form game:
Baelish’s policy is simple:
- If you believe me, I will betray you.
- If you don’t believe me, I will not betray you.
- Once you start believing me again, I will not betray you.
- And when I have gained your confidence and you still believe me, I will betray you.
His strategy actually aligns well with his own words in Season 7, Episode 7:
“Sometimes, when I try to understand a person’s motives, I play a little game. I assume the worst. What’s the worst reason they could possibly have for saying what they say, or doing what they do? Then I ask myself, ‘how well does that reason explain what they say and what they do?’”
His technique to understand a person’s intent actually helps him judge the level of belief other person has for him. This guarantees Baelish threefold success:
- Getting rid of possible stakeholders
- Developing conflict between Houses
- Boosting his power and wining trust
Therefore by playing this repeated game over and over again, Baelish is actually able to increase the number of coalitions in which he is not a null player in comparison to other Houses and thus increasing his power. Playing this game did help him grow continuously: first Master of coins, then Lord of Harrenhal then Lord Protector of the Vale and finally Warden of the North.
So here comes the next big question: Is Lord Baelish actually dead? Our understanding of Lord Baelish clearly indicate that he must have sensed the upcoming danger and should have replaced himself with one of the No-ones (considering his Braavosi background). There is some serious Fan theory also circulating all over the Internet in this direction. If we look at Baelish’s interaction with Starks, we can observe a slight deviation from his usual trend. He seems to bluff less. Was it really him? I guess only option is to wait till final Season to unveil the mystery. Until then, Valar Morghulis!
