Could a Cleveland Indians and Atlanta Braves Trade Happen This Season?
Could A Cleveland Indians-Atlanta Braves Trade Happen?
Last night reports surfaced that the Cleveland Indians and Atlanta Braves had talks about a potential Chris Johnson for Nick Swisher swap this season.
Sources: #Braves, #Indians discussed trade of Chris Johnson for Nick Swisher in early June, before Swisher went on DL with knee issue…
— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) July 12, 2015
Swisher is still on the disabled list of course; however, could a trade between the two ball clubs still happen? Specifically could this trade happen?
Chris Johnson and Cameron Maybin from the Braves for Michael Bourn and Roberto Perez or prospect(s) from the Indians.
There’s pros and cons for both sides to a deal such as this. For one the money lines up very well in 2015 and 2016:
In 2015 Bourn is making $13.5M…Maybin/Johnson combined for $13.1M, In 2016 Bourn makes $14M, Maybin/Johnson $15.6M… #Indians #Braves
— Matt Bretz (@MattB_WOF) July 13, 2015
But is this enough for either side to say yes? Let’s take a look…
Maybin could fix CF in Cleveland. Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports
Why the Indians Would Say Yes
The Indians interest in Chris Johnson is a bit perplexing on the surface. He’s owed about $20M between now and the end of the 2017 season. That’s a ton for a guy that’s hitting .252/.294/.333 with just one HR this year. Johnson is also a natural third baseman that can play some first base bas well. However, Urshela is much better defensively and if the Indians wanted Johnson’s offense they could just turn to Lonnie Chisenhall. Johnson does bring one unique skill set though, he can hit left-handed pitching pretty well.
The right-handed Johnson is hitting .362/.388/.468 against left-handed pitching this year and .316/.352/.445 against them in his career. The Indians actually have been hitting left-handed pitching quite well this year with a 106 wRC+ against them, good for fourth-best in all of baseball. However, that doesn’t mean they couldn’t use more help versus lefties. Mike Aviles is currently starting in left field against left-handed pitching and Johnson would be an upgrade over him. Ryan Raburn could move back to left field and Johnson at designated hitter (the spot Swisher figures to get whenever he comes off the disabled list).
Cameron Maybin has been enjoying a heck of a season after coming over from the San Diego Padres in the Craig Kimbrel trade. Maybin is batting .289/.356/.418 with 8 home runs, 15 stolen bases, and a 117 wRC+. He’s a center fielder though according to most metrics he’s struggled defensively there this year. However, for his career he’s rated out as average to slightly above average out there, so it may just be a matter of small sample size this season. In any case, there’s no denying that Maybin is putting much better offensively numbers than current Indians center fielder Michael Bourn. Maybin is also several years younger and provides more speed. He also has a very reasonable contract for the next year and half plus an option for 2017.
Losing Bourn wouldn’t really be much of a loss at all. He’s hitting a mere .222/294/.268 with no homeruns, seven stolen bases, and a 63 wRC+. He’s got a -0.7 fWAR at the moment as well. The Indians are still on the hook for the remainder of his $13.5M salary this year plus $14M in 2016 and a vesting option in 2017 (though there is no chance any team let’s that option vest). The Tribe owes him about $20M left then (similar to Johnson) so any chance to move it and the Indians would be crazy not to at least consider it.
To get a guy like Maybin the Indians will need to give up some value, be it prospects or perhaps backup catcher Roberto Perez. The Indians have several prospects that are just outside that “top prospect” range that could be enticing for the Braves in regards to Maybin, but Perez could be just as intriguing to them. Either way, the Indians will need to give up some value in this trade but they have depth to deal from areas and would be worth it for a guy like Maybin.
Perez could immediately help the Braves behind the plate. Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports
Why the Braves Would Say Yes
Chris Johnson hasn’t just struggled in 2015 for the Atlanta Braves. This slump he’s been in has lasted since the start of the 2014 season. Over the last year and a half, Johnson has hit just .261/.293/.356 with 11 homeruns and a mere 0.095 ISO. His sub-.650 OPS is hardly what the Braves were hoping they’d get after his monster 2013 season that saw him hit .321 with a 127 wRC+.
Johnson has lost his starting third base job to recently acquired Juan Uribe and has been platooning with Kelly Johnson at first base. There have been several reports in recent weeks stating that the Braves would like to move Johnson. Given that they at least engaged in talks for Nick Swisher suggests they aren’t expecting much of a return for him, but rather hoping to get rid of his contract and move. This deal helps them do that.
Cameron Maybin on the other hand has been quite the find for the Braves. After struggling to stay healthy in his four years in San Diego, Maybin has played in 80 games thus far for the Braves. He’s also enjoying the best year of his career offensively. The 28-year old appears to finally be showing that talent that made him the 10thoverall pick of the Detroit Tigers back in the 2005 draft. Or is this more of a mirage than a sign of him turning the corner? He is enjoying a career-best .336 BABIP and he’s still not displaying much power (.129 ISO) despite getting out of cavernous Petco Park. Some reports have suggested that the Braves could sell high on Maybin as well, which would be quite the accomplishment given he was himself essentially a throw-in to match salaries just a few months ago.
Getting Michael Bourn does very little for the Braves; however, he does provide them with a veteran center fielder to replace Maybin. He’s also a former Brave himself having played there in 2011 and 2012, with 2012 being the best season of his career (both offensively and defensively). Perhaps a move back to the National League will also help Bourn rebound some though at his age expectations would need to be tempered. Bourn would simply be a salary swap player and anything extra he provides would be a bonus.
Whether they get a prospect (or two) or a catcher like Perez, the Braves need young talent. While they have enjoyed a surprising start to their season they are in a clear rebuild having dealt guys like Justin Upton and Kimbrel. Recent reports suggest that the Braves are looking for a young catcher. They are currently starting veteran A.J. Pierzynski after optioning there prized catching prospect Christian Bethancourt to Triple-A. Perez is a guy many view as merely a backup but he’s shown this year that he can provide offensive value thanks to the walks and pop in his bat. Combine that with his plus defense and it’s not unrealistic to foresee an everyday big league starter with All-Star potential, something 30 out of 30 teams would enjoy to have.
If Atlanta would prefer to go the prospect route the Indians do have several prospects that could entice the Braves. They have several outfielders that could replace Maybin or starter in left field. James Ramsey and Tyler Naquin are the first two that come to mind. Neither is a top five prospect but both have value, and it wouldn’t take much imagination to project them to be Maybin-esque in a year or two.
Is Maybin worth it if you have to take Johnson? Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports
Why the Indians Would Say No
While the prospect of moving Bourn and the entirety of his contract has to be enticing for the Indians, they idea of adding Johnson can’t excite many. Despite his ability to hit lefties he’s still managed a 0 fWAR since the start of the 2014 season (Bourn is at -0.1 fWAR the last two years). His sub-.300 OBP isn’t something that the Indians are likely to be all that excited about either. Throw in his $9M 2017 salary and 2018 option that includes a $1M buyout and the Indians very likely will pass. Sure Johnson and Bourn are owed essentially the same over the life of their contracts but at least Bourn’s expires after 2016 and the Indians can move on. They may prefer to just live with Bourn in 2016 and then wipe their hands clean come 2017.
Maybin has been very good this year, but his offensive history leaves much to be desired. For the same reasons the Braves may consider selling high on him, the Indians would be wise to give pause to adding him. The Tribe has seen players break out in a first half to only come back down to earth in the second (Chisenhall last year comes to mind). There’s no denying Maybin is an upgrade over Bourn but is he enough of one to give up value assets for?
Roberto Perez may only be a backup in Cleveland but that shouldn’t limit his value to the club. He’s been a lifesaver with Gomes banged up and struggling. Even if Gomes breaks out in the second half and starts hitting how we all know he can, having a backup like Perez around is valuable. And even if the Indians do decide they will deal Perez, they may look at using him in a much bigger deal. Sound crazy? Consider this, Roberto Perez and Cameron Maybin currently have the same fWAR (1.2), despite Perez playing in over 30 fewer games than Maybin. Perez has a 116 wRC+ to Maybin’s 117, but Perez has been the much better defensive player, plus hitting from a much tougher position (catcher vs outfield).
Bourn hasn’t done much positive in Cleveland this year. Credit: Ken Blaze-USA TODAY Sports
Why the Braves Would Say No
While Chris Johnson has been pretty terrible the last two years, he does still provide some value as a platoon player. He is hitting .362 with a 142 wRC+ versus left-handed pitching in 2015, and for his career is a .316 hitter versus them (118 wRC+). Bourn may be better defensively and better on the bases but he doesn’t have any one tool that’s really valuable now like Johnson has.
Cameron Maybin may be having a career year offensively but he’s also healthy and entering the prime of his career (28 years old this season). He was always a guy scouts loved so perhaps he is finally reaching that potential. His contract while not cheap is very reasonable for what he’s providing and even in a rebuild he’s a guy the Braves would be smart to keep around for the next 2–3 years.
Michael Bourn and his -0.7 fWAR aren’t something any teams would want right now. Sure this deal ultimately saves the Braves over $10M in 2017–2018 salaries it doesn’t help them in 2015 or 2016 in that department. May just want to hold on to Johnson and see if a better salary dump option comes along.
There’s not much the Braves can dislike about Roberto Perez or a prospect in this deal, but again, they may just not feel it’s enough given Maybin potential. Perez could become a very good backup catcher but they also still have Bethancourt, so Perez in the end may only end up a backup in Atlanta as well.
Credit: Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports
So Could Such a Deal Actually Happen?
I think it’s very possible a deal structured like this could happen. It’s obviously a lot easier for me to sit here and say that when I’m not in on trade talks and don’t know a fraction of what the front offices know. But looking at the pros and cons for both sides it seems like a trade that helps out both clubs enough that it’s at least in the realm of possibilities. Perez very well may not be a target either and any number of non-top prospects could be included by the Indians. Perhaps too a guy like T.J. House or Lonnie Chisenhall gets in on the deal. Two guys that will be out of options for Cleveland but could potentially help a rebuilding Braves club in 2016 and beyond.
At the end of the day deals are hard to do, and only a fraction of the ones team discuss actually happen. If a deal like this one were to happen though it’d give the Indians a younger/better starting centerfielder without adding any real money the next two seasons, which is something they’d love to do. It’d also give the Braves a young catcher with the potential to be a starter or a prospect (or two) to help with the rebuild, while shedding some payroll in 2017 and 2018 when the team could look to spend and compete. Is this a win-win for everyone trade? Not completely but it does help both clubs get something that they want without giving up too a centerpiece of their team in return.
Regardless, I’d keep an eye on the Braves and Indians. There are a few others players that make sense for each club (Jonny Gomes for example). Also wouldn’t completely right off the fact that John Hart is the new Braves President of Baseball Operations is none other than former Tribe General Manager John Hart. Current Tribe Team President Mark Shapiro worked with Hart for over a decade, and Tribe General Manager Chris Antonetti worked with Hart for a couple of years as well. It’s obviously been over a decade since Hart was part of the organization but something to throw out there when thinking about potential Braves-Indians trade talks…
Originally published at wahoosonfirst.com on July 13, 2015.
