ChatGPT’s lessons on Rare Earths & Critical Materials
A current materials challenge that the renewable energy industry faces is the increasing cost and supply chain bottlenecks in the availability of rare earth elements and other ‘critical materials’. Any large disruptions in the availability of these materials could slow the pace of cost declines that are necessary for renewable energy technologies to replace fossil fuels in electric power, transportation, buildings, and heavy industry. Various U.S. government agencies have developed programs to bring additional supply, both domestically and with a broader set of country partners, of rare earths and other critical materials such as graphite, nickel, cobalt, and lithium. These critical materials are so defined because they are important for the clean energy transition, critical battery materials demand is expected to increase by 400–700% from 2022 volumes by 2030 and more beyond that, and supply chain risks exist to meet that demand growth. I wanted to gain a summary of this topic to augment my own reading, so I decided to ask ChatGPT about it to benchmark how this new AI tool can be used for education and research.
ChatGPT is OpenAI’s text generation natural language processing (NLP) model that has been trained on a corpus of internet text with over 300 billion words generated through the year 2021 using a reinforcement learning algorithm with human feedback. Human trainers generated some of the initial questions and answers as well as quality ratings to provide the data for supervised model training and the reward function for the reinforcement learning model. As such, the output from ChatGPT is as I would expect from a middle school student or maybe an early high school student tasked with writing a summary of a topic. ChatGPT doesn’t provide the depth of Wikipedia, but it does provide a broad but succinct overview on many topics.
Here are a few examples of the questions I asked and the responses generated by ChatGPT about rare earth elements and critical materials:
Me: What are rare earth elements?
ChatGPT: Rare earth elements (REEs) are a group of metallic elements that are
found in small quantities in the Earth's crust. They are also known as "rare
earth minerals" or "rare earth metals." There are 17 elements in the rare
earth group, which includes the elements cerium, dysprosium, erbium, europium,
gadolinium, holmium, lanthanum, lutetium, neodymium, praseodymium, promethium,
samarium, scandium, terbium, thulium, ytterbium, and yttrium. These elements
are not actually that rare, but they are often dispersed in very small
quantities in the earth and are difficult to extract and process. They are
used in a wide range of applications, including electronics, magnets,
batteries, catalysts, and lasers.This is a complete answer to a basic question naming the rare earth elements and their origins and application. However, for a technical audience it’s also useful to review the periodic table of elements and some standard physical properties to understand what makes rare earth elements unique. The rare earth elements include the lanthanides (*) block in period six of the periodic table (elements 57–70), and two group three elements scandium (Sc) and yttrium (Y). The Lanthanides have a 4f valence shell, containing between 1–14 electrons, and can be divided into the light Lanthanides (lanthanum through europium) which are more chemically reactive, more abundant, and less expensive than the heavy Lanthanides (gadolinium through lutetium). These elements are known for their chemical, magnetic and optical properties. Scandium and yttrium have 3d1 and 4d1 valence shells, respectively and they are sometimes included as rare earth elements with the lanthanides because they can be found in the same mineral ores.
The other critical materials such as lithium, cobalt, nickel, and graphite are not as chemically similar to each other as the rare earths, and are so defined by the U.S. Department of Energy for economic supply chain concerns. Battery cell and pack costs have declined 89% over the past decade, but that trend of cost declines reversed slightly in 2022 because of two factors. First, lithium costs have spiked as electric vehicles (EVs) sales have increased because with traditional methods, it takes between four to seven years to build a lithium mine versus two years for a battery factory. Second, nickel production disruptions have occurred as a result of the Russian invasion of Ukraine since Russia is the largest producer of nickel. Cobalt prices also increased in the first half of 2022 to levels similar to 2018 but have since stabilized, although until alternative battery cathode chemistries become commercially available in more EVs, the risk for a cobalt supply shortage does still exist. These factors together led to battery cell cost increases of 44% for NMC (nickel manganese cobalt) and 56% in LFP (lithium iron phosphate) cathode chemistries from October 2021 to September 2022 as seen below.
Me: What are some common products that use rare earth elements?
ChatGPT: Rare earth elements are used in a wide variety of products, including:
• Electronics: Rare earth elements are used in the production of electronics,
such as smartphones, laptops, and televisions. They are used to make batteries,
displays, and other components.
• Magnets: Rare earth elements are used to make strong, permanent magnets.
These magnets are used in a variety of applications, including motors,
generators, and speakers.
• Catalysts: Rare earth elements are used as catalysts in the chemical
industry to help speed up chemical reactions.
• Glass: Rare earth elements are used to make special types of glass that are
used in camera lenses, telescopes, and other optical instruments.
• Lasers: Rare earth elements are used in the production of lasers, which are
used in a variety of applications, including medicine, industry, and defense.
• Lighting: Rare earth elements are used to make phosphors, which are used in
energy-efficient light bulbs and fluorescent lighting.
Alloys: Rare earth elements are used to make alloys, which are mixtures of
metals that have improved strength, corrosion resistance, and other desirable
properties.This is also a reasonable listing of products in answer to the prompt, although quantitative information about the relative importance of these products or the industries in which rare earth elements are used isn’t available as seen below.
Lithium and cobalt are primarily used in batteries, and this application creates most of the demand and is most affected by supply chain concerns. The IEA predicts a shortage of lithium supply by 2025 without additional production investments. In contrast, over 70% of nickel production is used to make stainless steel, and batteries are a smaller application for this material. ChatGPT implicitly acknowledges in the ordering of its response, although quantitative information is not included.
Me: What are the main commercial uses of nickel?
ChatGPT: Nickel is used in a variety of commercial and industrial applications,
including:
Stainless steel: Nickel is a key component of stainless steel, which is widely
used in the food processing, chemical, and petroleum industries, as well as in
the construction of buildings and infrastructure.
Alloys: Nickel is used to produce a wide range of alloys, including those used
in the aerospace, automotive, and power generation industries.
Plating: Nickel is used for electroplating, which is the process of coating a
metal surface with a thin layer of another metal to protect against corrosion
or to give it a decorative finish.
Batteries: Nickel is used in the production of nickel-cadmium batteries, which
are used in portable electronic devices, such as cellphones and laptops, as
well as in electric vehicles and energy storage systems.
Coins: Nickel is used in the production of coins, particularly in the
production of five-cent coins, which are made of an alloy of copper and nickel.Me: Which countries produce the most rare earth elements?
ChatGPT: China is by far the largest producer of rare earth elements,
accounting for more than 90% of global production. Other countries that
produce significant amounts of rare earth elements include the United States,
Russia, Australia, and India.
In the past, the United States was a major producer of rare earth elements,
but production has declined in recent years. However, the U.S. government is
working to increase domestic production and reduce reliance on foreign sources
of these materials. There are also a number of private companies in the U.S.
that are working to develop new sources of rare earth elements.
Other countries that have large deposits of rare earth elements but currently
produce relatively small amounts include Brazil, Malaysia, and several
countries in Africa, including Egypt, Morocco, and Nigeria.This is a good but likely not comprehensive list of countries with an interest in or experience with rare earth element mining. China has market power in the rare earth element market, which means it can withhold supplies to drive up prices, but also, flood the market to drive down prices to retain market share, if it so chooses. Market power works in both ways — both to increase and decrease prices, which means the economic theory of a perfectly competitive market doesn’t apply in this case. In this situation, it’s important for governments to consider enacting policies that encourage mineral resource source diversity to maintain some predictability in prices. And businesses should have strategies for how to manage either high or low prices for rare earth materials in the long term to meet long-term demand growth.
Me: What are some alternative technologies or strategies that do not use rare
earth elements?
ChatGPT: There are several alternative technologies or strategies that do not
rely on rare earth elements:
Recycling: Recycling rare earth elements helps to conserve these resources
and reduce the demand for new materials.
Alternative materials: In some cases, it may be possible to use alternative
materials that do not contain rare earth elements. For example, some permanent
magnets can be made using aluminum, nickel, and cobalt instead of neodymium
and dysprosium.
Substitution: In some cases, it may be possible to use a different element to
perform the same function as a rare earth element.
Process optimization: Improving the efficiency of processes that use rare
earth elements can help to reduce the overall demand for these materials.
Research and development: Advances in technology may lead to the development
of new materials or processes that do not rely on rare earth elements.
Supporting organizations that are working on these kinds of research efforts
can help to accelerate the development of these alternatives.Once we get into the more in-depth economic questions such as material substitution, I start to become wary of the accuracy of ChatGPT’s responses, either because it hasn’t been trained on much scientific content or because expert opinion is divided or changing over time. For example, some argue that rare earth elements are difficult to obtain economically through recycling because they are used in such trace quantities in product components that they cannot be separated from the main materials used during shredding and filter-based recycling processes. But perhaps recycling technologists will find an economic way to separate the entire permanent magnet rather than the individual rare earth elements without damage for re-use in electronics before using shredding-based processes.
I asked ChatGPT directly about rare earth element substitution but its answer lacks much technical detail.
Me: Give me an example of rare earth element substitution.
ChatGPT: One example of rare earth element substitution is the use of non-REE
magnets in the production of electric vehicles (EVs). REEs, such as neodymium
and dysprosium, are often used in the production of the high-performance
magnets that are used in EVs. However, these REEs are expensive and can be
difficult to obtain, due in part to China's dominance in the REE market. As a
result, researchers and manufacturers are exploring the use of alternative
magnets that do not use REEs.
One example of a non-REE magnet that is being used in EVs is the Nd-Fe-B
magnet, which is made from iron, boron, and a small amount of neodymium.
While these magnets are not as powerful as REE magnets, they are still strong
enough to be used in many EV applications, and they have the advantage of
being less expensive and more widely available than REE magnets.
Other non-REE magnets that are being developed for use in EVs include those
made from aluminum, cobalt, and other materials. While these magnets are not
yet ready for widespread use, they have the potential to be a cost-effective
and widely available alternative to REE magnets in the future.A prominent example on rare earth element component substitution is the electric vehicle and energy company, Tesla, which initially used an AC induction motor containing no permanent magnets for the drivetrain for the Model S, although later vehicle models use a partial permanent magnet switched reluctance motor for greater efficiency. Induction motors are made from a core material like steel that can be magnetized when exposed to an electric field through the Ampere-Maxwell law. Rare earths are also used in the production of steel and other metal alloys but in lesser quantities than for permanent magnets. Critical material substitution for other battery materials like cobalt is also underway by Tesla and other EV manufacturers, for example through the use of lithium iron phosphate (LFP) cathodes or other chemistries.
These are just a few of the answers to the questions I generated. You can also ask ChatGPT to generate its own questions about any topic and then ask it to answer each of them. Here’s the set of questions ChatGPT generated about rare earth elements, but I’ll leave it as an exercise to the reader to ask ChatGPT to answer them.
Me: Create a list of 10 questions about rare earth elements.
ChatGPT:
1. What are rare earth elements, and how are they classified?
2. How are rare earth elements mined and processed?
3. What are the primary commercial uses of rare earth elements?
4. How are rare earth elements used in high-tech industries, such as
electronics and defense?
5. What are the environmental impacts of rare earth element mining and
processing?
6. How much of the world's rare earth element supply is controlled by China?
7. How has the demand for rare earth elements changed in recent years?
8. What are the economic and geopolitical implications of China's dominance
in the rare earth element market?
9. Are there any substitutes for rare earth elements in certain applications?
10. How is research and development into rare earth element alternatives
progressing?One of these questions — on environmental impacts of mining — wasn’t within my initial focus given the basic science, market research, and policy sources I was reading, and ChatGPT’s answer is worth further consideration in choosing a rare earth element policy strategy or business/technology investment. ChatGPT, the AI, gives sound, high-level advice below although the worker and public safety risks of environmental impacts other than radiation were not directly mentioned. The reason for radiation risks from rare earth elements is not quite accurately described in this response — this is perhaps due to the fact that the Lanthanides are often found in rocks or soils containing uranium and thorium and depending on the source, the Actinides (the row below the Lanthanides in the periodic table with 5f valence electrons) are sometimes also included as rare earth elements but not according to the Department of Energy definition.
ChatGPT: What are the environmental impacts of rare earth element mining and
processing?
ChatGPT: The mining and processing of rare earth elements can have significant
environmental impacts, including:
Habitat destruction: The excavation of mines and the construction of
processing facilities can destroy natural habitats and disrupt ecosystems.
Water pollution: The release of chemical waste from mining and processing
operations can contaminate water sources and harm aquatic life.
Air pollution: The release of particulates and other air pollutants from
mining and processing operations can have negative impacts on air quality.
Soil contamination: The release of chemical waste from mining and processing
operations can contaminate soil and harm plants and animals.
Radiation exposure: Some rare earth elements, such as thorium and uranium,
are radioactive and can pose a risk of radiation exposure to workers and the
public if not properly managed.
To minimize these impacts, it is important for mining and processing operations
to be carefully planned and regulated, and for companies to implement best
practices to reduce their environmental footprint.Overall, I envision that ChatGPT could be used as a supplement to web searches to learn about a new topic. For example, Microsoft has recently announced that it plans to launch a future version of Bing with summary content from ChatGPT to answer some questions instead of a usual list of links, although I think a list of primary sources written by humans is always a good idea to provide with an AI summary. ChatGPT provides good breadth of coverage and summarizes topics well, although the right keywords have to be included in the question to generate the type of content you’re looking for. ChatGPT’s summaries do not have much depth, but with sufficient breadth, its answers can hopefully prompt additional questions for readers to ask ChatGPT, do a more specific web search, or discuss with an expert.
I still remember the first time I used a Google Search based on the PageRank algorithm in 1999 and being amazed by the relevance of the results. After trying ChatGPT, I am more hopeful that an AI like the Star Trek Enterprise Computer that provides enough technical detail for the command team of the Starship Enterprise to make decisions may one day be possible. Or at least a Wadsworth.
