The data behind the case for reopening Schools and Businesses, now

  • The death rate of Covid for people below 55 is similar to the one of the Flu and overall very low. People below 45 are 14 times more likely to die of an accident than they are of dying from Covid.
  • Covid is much deadlier than the flu, period.
  • For people over 65, and especially people over 75, Covid is very deadly, much more than other causes.
  • The virus is very contagious and can spread fast in densely populated areas with limited containment measures. The latest data estimates that at least 20% of the NYC’s population has now been infected[3].
  • The death rate gets much higher as the virus spreads (NYC’s death rate is 15x higher than the national average[4]). However, the death toll continues to fall almost exclusively on the elderly. In Italy, more than 95% of the people who died from Covid were over 60, and the median age of people dying from Covid was 81 years old[5] . In NYC, the death rate for people above 75 years old is 74 times higher than for people 18 to 44.
  • While the death rate for people below 45 years old remains much lower than for older people, it is no longer negligible in NYC (15.1 deaths per 100,000). That Covid death rate is comparable to the death rate of accidents (15.1 vs 12.6).
  • For schools: Children are entirely spared by this virus and most parents of school-age children are low risk (most of them are below 50), so why keep the schools closed? School closures are a major disruption and seem completely unnecessary when looking at the data. Schools should reopen now; parents and teachers can decide if they feel comfortable going back to school (I definitely would).
  • Similarly, most businesses should be allowed to reopen (assuming they follow common sense prevention measures) and individuals can decide how to protect themselves based on their particular situation.

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