Allow me to make a few counterpoints:
If you had stayed in the training industry, you could have moved from VB 3.0 to VB6, then onto SQL Server, and then .NET in 2001, then C# and Silverlight, and then maybe move on to something like React and Nodejs. Programming never changes, but the tools do, and there’s always a new generation that needs to be taught.
My point is, you got out but the training industry kept chugging along without you. Worldwide revenue from online education topped $107 Billion in 2015, and it keeps growing.
I agree with your points about how learning has changed, but it’s actually the online training industry that has embraced this change, by creating compact courses that help students with specific challenges. The traditional classroom training industry did not adapt and is in decline, but online is booming.
Regarding agile, I agree with Stephan Roth that it is mostly a mindset. And I think you underestimate how many corporate dinosaurs we still have today. I think we have at least a full decade before everyone has moved on, possibly more. Go figure: in my 25-year long IT career I have never met a company fully committed to Agile. There’s still a ton of work to be done.
After that, we can continue with full-on Enterprise Agile, where we strip down middle management because agile teams are self-steering and only need minimal oversight. I think a lot of existing companies will go bankrupt because they will be outcompeted by startups with very lean management.
What’s next? Fully virtual teams? AI-run companies without a physical office? Worldwide collaboration? Super-fast team formation and regrouping based on dynamic challenges? Orchestrating massive teams involving thousands of members? All of this is doable, and made possible by having agile teams.
If it’s possible, someone will do it and grab the competitive advantage. And when that happens, people like you and me need to move in to train the competition to help them catch up.
I think we have many decades of work still ahead of us.
