El Nino’s tale of winter
Different stories for the cold season ahead.
Social media is full of hard and fast conclusions on what kind of El Nino we will have this winter and what that will mean for winter weather.
There’s plenty of disagreement among experts. I am not an oceanographer or ocean meteorologist/climatologist so I lean on trusted experts and my 43 years of forecasting experience as a synoptic-operational met.
This tells me that it is more dubious than usual to project the nature of El Nino mid and late winter because we have global ocean anomalies and patterns that are UNIQUE. That puts finding analog years (matches to this year) to use for the forecast very difficult and could mean that numerical forecast equations will struggle with this one more than typical. So maybe THIS El Nino will carry less weight than usual in what kind of winter unfolds because of the unique ocean temperature situation, some similarities dating back to 1877–78 but most having many differences.
I am not comfortable projecting unrealistic certainty that this will be an East or West centered El Nino or that it will be strong or even Super strong but will keep looking for indicators until I release my final winter forecast by early December. The ONLY THING that appears certain is that we will have “an El Nino winter” and not a La Nina nor a Neutral one.
THE EL NINO CURRENTLY:
The Eastern (1.2) part of El Nino is over half a degree C warmer than the central 3.4 region for now.
I’ve seen some clowns even try to sell a very strong “Super El Nino” (above 2.0C) using an experimental model run in 2021:
But WEAK El Nino is colder, with some variation depending on West or East configuration:
But using the SOI 3-monthly average so far THIS El Nino trails the Super el Ninos of 1982–83, 97–98 and 2015–16. Running closest to 1997 based on SOI as of now.
As of September the MODEL AVERAGE for this El Nino is NOT strong or super-strong, it’s moderate to strong early but with a weakening trend as the winter grows older:
The statistical models project a winter average El Nino of about 1.3C while the dynamic models project an average of a touch above 2C (above chart).
A more in-between classic or traditional El Nino has more areas close to a normal or average winter:
A weak El Nino has the MOST month-to-month variability while a strong El Nino has the least amount of winter month-to-month variability:
HOWEVER, El Nino is not the only ocean temp pattern that impacts WINTER:
Like in real estate, the SSTA location patterns matter. The WeatherBell company has shown this relationship:
West-Central El Nino:
East-based (EP) El Nino:
AND the above is ONLY based on SSTA but does not even consider measures of the atmosphere’s response or connection to the oceans!
So you can see there are a whole lot of puzzle pieces and many are not locked in place so remain unknown or uncertain, ignore the bold statement posts by anyone.
As of now all I can say is, ignoring all things except El Nino, I favor this for now:
CURRENT EL NINO ONLY BASED EXPECTATIONS FOR THE COMING WINTER…
DJF TEMPERATURE AVERAGE:
DJF PRECIPITATION AVERAGE:
If you start hearing about California having flooding rains and mudslides, an argument for “writing off” a cold/snowy winter east of the Rocky Mountains could be in the cards.
Please read my previous blog posts for more on winter and El NIno, for daily weather info follow me on X Twitter @MellishMeterWSB.
