MSNavigating Market TurmoilThe late cycle has given way to a bust. The usual melange of concerns about rising rates, tariffs, and slowing global growth seems to have…Dec 24, 2018Dec 24, 2018
MSTrusting the SignalsInvestors witnessed unprecedented volatility in October, with financial markets suffering the worst month in seven years. Led by a decline…Dec 4, 2018Dec 4, 2018
MSSlowing U.S. HousingOctober saw a great deal of volatility in financial markets as concerns about rising yields gave way to a push-and-pull between stocks and…Nov 12, 2018Nov 12, 2018
MSLate Cycle Dynamics: Battle of the YieldsMarket turmoil last week in bond and equity markets is emblematic of late cycle dynamics. In the latter part of the business cycle, growth…Oct 8, 2018Oct 8, 2018
MSInflation Risks MountingWe’ve written before on both the potential secular impact of the Trump administration’s tariffs on growth and inflation, as well as what…Oct 1, 2018Oct 1, 2018
MSSelf-Reinforcing MechanismsBroadly speaking, quantitative investors think of the market as having two major regimes: momentum and mean-reverting. In plain terms, the…Sep 22, 2018Sep 22, 2018
MSEmerging Market Fallout: Watching ArgentinaThis year has been particularly grueling for emerging market economies. While developed world equities continue to grind higher, emerging…Sep 15, 2018Sep 15, 2018
MSThe Pulse on TariffsIn our last post, we took a brief look at the drivers of growth and inflation in the United States. Noting that economic indicators seem to…Sep 7, 2018Sep 7, 2018
MSTaking Stock of US Growth and the RallyLast Wednesday, American equity indices set records for the longest bull run in history. The longstanding rally began as the world came out…Sep 1, 2018Sep 1, 2018
MSThe Recent Plunge in GoldBroadly speaking, there are two ways of thinking about the prices of financial assets. First, assets can have an intrinsic value, which is…Aug 20, 2018Aug 20, 2018