2016–07–28 Market watch by Parit Sripakdeevong, Market Analyst, MultiBank Exchange Group.
7:55AM GMT: The German’s Federal Statistics Office will report on Unemployment Rate. This figure is reported on a monthly basis, and today’s data will be of July 2016. This statistic measure the seasonally adjusted number of people actively looking for a job as a percentage of the labor force. The market expects the unemployment rate to be stable at last month’s figure of 6.1%. If this figure exceeds expectation, EUR should depreciate.
9AM GMT: The European Commision will report on Business Confidence in the Euro Area. This figure is reported on a monthly basis, and today’s data will be of July 2016. This statistic is an index which measures how companies in the Euro Area feels about production expectations. The Market expects the index to fall to 0.17 from 0.22 in June. If this figure exceeds expectation, EUR should appreciate.
11:05PM GMT: GfK (Society for Consumer Research) will report on Consumer Confidence in the United Kingdom. This figure is reported on a monthly basis, and today’s data will be of July 2016. This statistic is an index of how consumers feels about past and future economic condition. The Market expects a negative outlook of -8, compared to last month’s value of -1. If this figure exceeds expectation, GBP should appreciate.
12PM GMT: Later in the day, the German’s Federal Statistics Office will also report on Inflation Rate. This figure is reported on a monthly basis, and today’s data will be of July 2016. This is a year on year statistic, so today’s figure will measure how much consumer price have increased in the 12 months up to July. The market expects inflation to be stable at last month’s figure of 0.3%. It should be noted that expectation may adjust to the unemployment figure reported earlier in the day. If this figure exceeds expectation, EUR should appreciate.
11:30PM GMT: The BOJ (Bank of Japan) will report on Inflation Rate. This figure is reported on a monthly basis, and today’s data will be of June 2016. This is a year on year statistic, so today’s figure will measure how much consumer price have increased in the 12 months up to June. In Japan’s case, the figure is sometimes negative, which indicates a decrease in prices. The market expects inflation to be stable at last month’s figure of -0.4%. If this figure exceeds expectation, JPY should appreciate.
2:00AM GMT: Later in the day, the BOJ will also meet to decide on Interest rates. The BOJ meets roughly every six weeks, with the last meeting on June 16th. The BOJ’s key interest rate is the discount rate, which is the rate in which Japanese banks provide uncollateralized loan to each other overnight. The discount rate have been reduced from 0% to an “experimental” negative rate of -0.1% back in January. The market expects the BOJ to further slash the rate to -0.2% today. Due to the experimental nature of the negative lending rate, it is uncertain how market will react if expectations are not met.
Multibank Exchange Group -Connecting the World’s Financial Markets. http://www.mexgroup.com/
