Interesting take.
mikekav
5313

‘Ownership’ is a highly developed legal concept in most OECD countries, particularly so in those using common law. However, those countries are not generating massive new demand for urban mobility, quite the opposite. The situation in the US, as you correctly argue, isn’t likely to change overnight. Too many petrol heads, too many people with the attitude: ‘why fix it if it ain’t broke.’ The situation in other faster growing markets is completely different. In the world’s largest car market, China, attitudes are more fluid. And, in the market which will likely soon be the world’s second largest, India, the mass market pattern has yet to be set. Both China and India have far lower per capita incomes than those prevailing in the US and the rest of the OECD. Therefore the economic calculus when determining whether or not mobility can be afforded is more finely tuned. Their urban and suburban areas are also far more congested and polluted. Therefore it is likely that anti-emissions legislation — ie. bans on internal combustion engines in certain geographies — is more likely. I see self driving as taking off first in China, in the Chinese disaspora (Singapore, Taiwan, etc) and in India. The manifest economic advantages will help propel those economies — leapfrog fashion up the per capita performance tables — meaning they will begin to catch up with the OECD countries. Self driving may well be THE industry that restructures the global economic hierarchy.