Alex Pereira vs Jamahal Hill: UFC 300 Prediction and Breakdown
For the main event of UFC 300 we were promised something that was going to completely blow us all away, a massive fight to cap off the promotion’s most historic card to date, but instead we got Alex Pereira vs Jamahal Hill for the Light Heavyweight title.
Because of the bold claims from Dana White many see this fight as a disappointment, and while it may not be the super fight you would hope to headline a card of this caliber, this is still an excellent fight between two of the most dangerous strikes in the sport.
Alex Pereira, the defending champion, has taken over the MMA world in recent years. As a kickboxing legend who had won Glory world titles in both the 185 pounds and 205 pound divisions, along with his wins over established superstar Israel Adesanya, Alex came in with high expectations but also many questions to whether or not his success in an entirely different sport could transition into a successful career facing the very best in MMA, and safe to say, “The Alex Pereira Experiment” has been nothing short of a massive success.
But with every fight it takes two to tango, and Jamahal Hill is quite the dance partner for ‘Poatan’. In a tumultuous time for the LHW division, it can be quickly forgotten that Jamahal had a masterful performance to become champion. Late 2022-early 2023 was quite the hectic time at the weight this fight is taking place, searching for a dominant champion in the post Jon Jones era was seemingly very difficult, with the belt changing hands multiple times in just a few years, it seemed we were about to have some stability at the top as Jiri and Glover were set to rematch after putting on one of the greatest fights ever, but a catastrophic shoulder injury led to the defending champ vacating the belt and another LHW bout being promoted from contender match to vacant title fight; In fitting fashion for the direction of this division Blachowicz vs Ankalaev would be declared a draw, leading to an unlikely challenger emerging as Jamahal Hill would receive the opportunity to reach his ultimate goal just an event later at UFC 283. Hill put on a complete masterclass, beating down Glover Teixeira over 5 rounds and just as it seemed we would finally reach normality at 205, Hill would pick up his own major injury whilst waiting for Jiri to recover with him, and just like the previous champ, he would relinquish the belt in means of not holding things up at the top.
With all this said, we have a title fight on our hands that is ultra intriguing style wise and narrative wise. These two each have had very interesting paths to the title, with each being fast tracked in separate ways, there are just 24 professional MMA fights between them, a number that I would expect to be one of the lowest ever in history for a men’s championship bout. Another fascinating narrative is Alex having the chance to avenge his best friend, coach and training partner Glover Teixeira after doing so in his last fight against Jiri. There is also a huge question mark about what form Hill will be in this fight coming off one of the worst injuries in sports, a torn achilles.
Now let’s get into breaking down the X’s and O’s of this fight. I watched each man’s last 5 fights, taking notes on some tendencies as well as strengths and weaknesses for each. Talking about Alex Pereira first you have to bring up his leg kicks. While I understand the point has been hammered home over and over again, it is for good reason. His low kicks have zero tell to them as he has a unique style of not turning over the hips but still being able to do so much damage with them. Being able to outdo some of the best in the business like Jan and Izzy with low kicks just shows how deadly this part of his game is, and it looks even scarier when he faces someone like Jiri who doesn’t defend them well. Almost instantly Pereira took Procházka off his feet with calf kicks and completely changed the dynamic of that fight, getting rid of the wild movement that makes Jiri so dangerous. The other thing Alex is well known for is his left hook. This shot is so powerful and really can put anyone’s lights out whether it be at 185 or 205. What I love most about his left hook though is how he sets it up, knowing how dangerous a weapon it is he spends the entirety of the fight setting it up. One of his most used weapons is the body job, something that isn’t ever meant to end the fight, but just to accumulate damage and get his opponent thinking. Using that body jab mixed with his low kicks he is then able to land that left hook when it’s at the back of their mind. Pereira is also one of the most scary people in the sport in front of you if you are covering up. The champ is able to mix it up to the body and up top with deadly intentions each shot, but this is also a two sided coin. Seen in the Izzy fights, while he is so terrifying against the fence, if you are able to return before getting too hurt, his reckless abandonment can leave him in real danger to get countered and finished. Pereira’s defense as a whole is actually pretty shallow for someone who has his achievements as a striker. Alex solely keeps his head on the center line and relies on just circling and countering to defend, leading him to be very susceptible to opponents blitzes. There is also a long history dating back to his kickboxing days where he can be tagged by 1–2s on a regular basis. It seems like this is a habit that he just cannot drill out of himself to get blinded by the jab and rocked by that 2 coming behind it. I will also quickly mention that his takedown defense is quite poor. He is late to react to shots and because of that is forced to defend while they are already in on the takedown. When it hits the mat he does have solid enough composure to just survive but that does come with him not taking many chances to get up so control time can be racked up if you do get Alex down. Now onto breaking down the game of Jamahal Hill. Off the jump watching the fight against Glover I was extremely impressed with his overall activity. Understanding how big of an opportunity this moment was for him and his career he imposed his will more than I have ever seen him do, against the highest level of competition he had faced as well. Hill was constantly pumping out the jab and teeping to the body, neither which are super damaging but certainly pay dividends as the fight progresses. As a whole Jamahal’s kicks seemed massively improved from his last fights, while it was a weapon he did use in previous fights, his high kicks looked very quick and did some huge damage and his body kicks along with his teeps helped a ton with him mixing it up and tiring Glover. Hill’s hands are not the most technical I have ever seen but they are at the least fast and extremely dangerous. Jamahal can get a bit sloppy further into exchanges but his initial combos are very solid and in the pure boxing moments I would say he has the advantage in this fight. Another aspect Hill should have the advantage in this fight is the ground, while I expect the two to keep this majority on the feet, Jahamal was able to defend shots well from Glover and even when he was down his scrambling ability allowed him to get out of even Teixeira’s very best positions where he finished endless opponents. Though he wasn’t able to get the finish at 283, his GNP in that fight and others is also deadly and I would expect if he got a much less experienced guy on the mat in Pereira to the ground off a knockdown, he would finish the fight. I also am a fan of how he showed he could go a hard 5 rounds while keeping an impressive pace. If this were to go to decision, I would expect neither man to tire severely. There is one glaring thing in this matchup that does have me very worried for Hill, he does not defend leg kicks. As much as I’m sure a part of his game plan is to defend those low kicks from Pereira, if Jan Blachowicz can’t do it, it’s hard for me to picture someone who was doing basically nothing to defend kicks from a washed up Thiago Santos. Hill was also caught flush by a left hook in the Glover fight and I am sure Pereira has been watching that sequence over and over to see how he could do the same. This is an extremely tough fight to predict on all levels, making it such a compelling match.
