Max Holloway vs Justin Gaethje: UFC 300 Prediction and Breakdown
The BMF Belt, a special and unique title that only the truly baddest mother****ers can compete for.
At UFC 300 we have a fitting matchup for such a belt, as Justin “The Highlight” Gaethje takes on Max “Blessed” Holloway.
While many have argued that this fight is a bit pointless and makes both 145 and 155’s title pictures a bit convoluted, this is as fun a fight as it gets and I think it is far more competitive than the odds say.
Many would not be able to live up to the nickname of “The Highlight” but Justin Gaethje is the perfect man to fit the bill. While the BMF title holder is known for his lengthy highlight reel and his many wars, he has also had incredible growth as one of the elite technicians in the business. Just watch the first matchup he had against Dustin Poirier compared to the second, though the result was obviously different, the process to get to that result of head kicking Dustin into the shadow realm was significantly improved. After the Charles Olivera fight at UFC 274 where Gaethje had failed his second attempt at becoming undisputed champ, it seemed over for Justin at the top, while he made improvements there was still that reckless fighter inside of him, but in Justin’s last two performances he has come in as an underdog in each and put on excellent performances, with his decision win over Rafael Fiziev and his KO of Dustin Poirier.
Max Holloway is nothing short of a bonafide legend in this sport. Despite not being able to overcome Volk in their three bouts, he has beat just about everyone at featherweight. Max is another fighter similar to Justin who while always being a great fighter, even better peak for peak than Justin, has continued to grow and develop his skill set in recent years. Now Max gets a second crack at lightweight, but this time with far more notice and preparation to get ready for that adjustment.
When this fight announcement came out, everyone was excited because this is an obvious banger on paper, but just as many were concerned for Holloway, feeling Gaethje may be the fighter to finally break the all time great chin of Max. As a massive Max fan myself I had similar worries, but as this fight nears and we get glimpses into the camp of Max Holloway and as I watch tape back on each fighter, I think this fight is extremely close.
The main fight that people will talk about as fans preview the match will be the interim title bout between Holloway and Poirier. And that’s for good reason, we have only seen Max at 155 a single time so naturally you would go to that fight and look for things to pick up on. While I understand the reasoning to look at that fight for insight, that fight will have been exactly five years ago on UFC 300 and the circumstances are entirely different going into this match. I really urge you before making a prediction on this fight to look at the shape Max was in going into the fight with Dustin. Holloway has always had that wiry frame, not being overly muscular but coming into weigh-ins looking lean every time, but due to the short notice of this bout he basically came in just being a featherweight who didn’t cut weight. There was almost a bit of a gut on him and that was quite the shocking sight considering he had never looked like that at all. If you have been watching Max’s YouTube videos he is putting out en route to 300 he has clearly packed on some real size instead of just fluff like last time. Max has not only had a full camp to prepare for this move up in weight but with him being in an awkward spot knowing he would have to wait a while before he would get a title shot at featherweight and with Justin Gaethje’s manager, also Islam Makhachev’s manager, tweeting about this potential fight before it had materialized, I believe Holloway may have been preparing for this fight for quite a while now. With better preparation I think Max will be far more ready for the power of Justin, as I don’t believe the size difference will even be that noticeable. The fight between Poirier and Holloway was also much more competitive than many remember it to be in the first place, Dustin was able to steal rounds with bigger moments but Max still had times where his volume was overwhelming “The Diamond”, even having him in real trouble before he threw a jump knee that allowed Poirier to secure a clinch and have time to recover.
Another thing you will see watching Max’s last bout at 155 while contrasting it to his more recent fights is how much he has evolved. I watched the Arnold Allen fight right before the Poirier fight and I was truly stunned at how different a fighter Max is nowadays. Holloway still is a high volume striker who weaponizes his cardio but his game is entirely different than it was just a few years ago. Holloway used to employ a much more traditional boxing style, heavy on the lead leg and using mostly just his hands, but now he has such a varied game with his kicks and movement. Max really likes to mix up the targets with his kicks, utilizing lead leg stomps, sidekicks, spinning back kicks to the body, head kicks, leg kicks, body kicks and head kicks to constantly keep opponents guessing. Max is also far lighter on his feet than he used to be, allowing him to defend better against leg kicks, and he has been able to develop a lot of diversity within his movements, constantly switching in and out of stances, to allow him to not get hit nearly as often or as clean as he used to be. While Holloway was beat up pretty badly in the final match in his trilogy with Volk, peak Volk is one of the single most skilled to ever do it and is a nightmare stylistic match up for Max in all aspects.
Now while this has mostly been about what Max does well and why I think him upsetting Justin is a real possibility, it would be a shame if I went without also talking about the immense growth we have seen from Gaethje in his last few performances. If you watch the two fights Gaethje had against Poirier, while he has not had as much of a major shift in style as Max has, he has perfected the style he always has had now. Justin used to really overthrow on almost every strike, trying to land with bad intentions, but now he is much more measured. You can see that most of his leg kicks where he used to throw them so hard that they would leave him in vulnerable positions to get countered off them but now he throws them more sparingly and while they are still hard, he no longer throws them as if he is trying to chop your leg off. Similarly in his boxing his combinations are much more technical and crisp. Justin is far more patient with landing his shots, usually he likes to rip to the body and then go with two shots up top but he will then exit out of exchanges. Gaethje’s head movement is also better than ever as of late. He was really seeming to frustrate Poirier as he stifled almost all of his offense via his footwork and head movement. Justin’s jab also looked like a thing of beauty in his fight against Rafael Fiziev, really taking over in the final round as he was by far the fresher man and just stayed on him by peppering him with that jab.
This is by no means an easy fight to pick, I hope no one gets that impression from my thoughts up to now, but as a 2–1 underdog, Max is being extremely disrespected. I like the shape Holloway has been looking in leading up to this fight and I think his new adaptations with his style along with the different circumstances compared to his previous weight move will allow him to take some of the power shots from Gaethje. I think Max can do some good damage to his body, a weakness of Justin, and I think the leg kicks coming back to him will have nearly as much of an effect as some may expect. Holloway has also sat down on some of his shots more in recent performances, with him already showing that his power can transfer to 155 I believe he can earn respect from Gaethje even if he is the obviously less powerful man in this bout. With Justin being a bit more of a slow starter in recent years I think Max has the ability to get ahead and stay ahead on scorecards with his volume and his great variety of attacks that he has introduced into his game.
