The Race For AI and The New Cold War
Whoever becomes the leader in AI will become the leader of mankind
Last Friday, a million Russian schoolchildren watched a televised address from Russian President Vladimir Putin. “Artificial intelligence is the future, not only of Russia, but of all of mankind,” Putin said. “Whoever becomes the leader in this sphere will become the ruler of the world.” After seeing Putin’s comments, SpaceX and Tesla CEO Elon Musk tweeted that “competition for AI superiority at the national level (is the) most likely cause of WW3.”
Although many powerful people have stated their opinions about AI and its potential impact, nobody has ever been so forward and blunt about it as Putin. Although witnessing this as an adult, it brings back many memories from childhood, when I used to sit in my bed late at night worrying about nuclear weapons, scared stiff that something existed that could annihilate the world at the press of a button. I recall asking my father numerous questions, but the most significant always began with the word why.
We are now starting to harness AI (Artificial Intelligence) with more intensity and motivation than any other technology, and it has already changed our world much more than most people realize. As a matter of fact, AI is used in so many algorithms today that if it came to a sudden stop, so would most of the world. Every single time you ask Siri a question, you receive results powered by AI. When you drive to work in a car now powered by approximately 20 microprocessors, each one is utilizing algorithms that turn data into an understanding of your driving habits. In other words, your car begins to understand you in the same way your brain does - through experience. After work, when you decide to pick up dinner and groceries, the store you shop at will most likely be powered by a cloud-based assembly of machines that have been hard at work trying to predict your shopping habits. Managers will be told by these same devices how to optimize shelves and assemble items based on predications ultimately derived through experience, which is the essence of AI. Unfortunately, when you attempt to pay for your items at the self-checkout, you notice that your card has been flagged by the bank. In frustration, you decide to call a customer service rep, but quickly learn that the decision to block your card wasn’t made by them, but instead, AI-based algorithms that have been developed and deployed to monitor fraud. However, not only is it your activity that is being monitored, but every customer of the bank - perhaps even every customer on the planet that has a bank card. By analyzing huge amounts of historical data, these algorithms have the ability to see what humans cannot, and in the end, make decisions based on experience. During dinner, you and your spouse decide to discuss news that you both just read on your mobile devices, unaware that the stories may have been slightly different because they were picked and cultivated just for you based on past experience. And finally, when you go to bed, you turn on the television and decide to watch a Netflix movie recommended by an AI algorithm that knows more about you and your habits than even yourself.
The algorithms I described above are useful, and although they tend to make most people feel a little concerned about privacy, I wouldn’t classify them as scary. Conversely, AI is a completely different beast - it is a whole different ball game. AI research is happening at such a rapid rate, it is likely to deliver a revolution in military technology that goes way beyond nuclear capability. Unfortunately, it is quite difficult to talk about something that doesn’t even exist yet, but it is definitely coming, and fast. Perhaps it will manifest in the form of robotic soldiers and drones, capable of knowing every single detail about us, able to track enemies down in seconds, and then deliver some sort of electronic virus that I discussed in a previous article, which immediately wipes us out. China, the United States, and Russia possess digital technology industries that are larger and more sophisticated than any other industry, and this power continues to grow at an exponential rate.
Russia has already illustrated its cyber capabilities when it knocked out the Ukrainian power grid, and most recently, when it brought pandemonium to the 2016 presidential election. Over the past several years, we have witnessed a major surge in Russia’s investments in new military robotic technology and unmanned systems. Although today most military robots and drones are remotely operated, Russia is currently designing plans that will introduce intelligent robotic complexes into the spectrum of warfare. In other words, robotic military units that are individually powered, controlled, and can fight and kill without the need for a human operator. Moreover, the plan is so aggressive, one of its main goals is to have at least 30% of future combat power entirely based on this type of technology.
In terms of intelligence, which is obviously a key component of warfare, Russia uses thousands of staff who work tirelessly to create fake news stories and social media posts. They have assembled and deployed thousands upon thousands of “bots” that pretend to be real people on social media, pushing their agenda. According to the Computational Propaganda Research Project at Oxford, nearly half of all Twitter accounts that comment about Russian politics are bots. And even with an increase in awareness, these bots continue to prove that fake news seriously influences American media coverage and ultimately our stock markets. It changes our perception, which ultimately causes us to question our reality.
Whether it be robotic systems, fake news, artificial video and audio, or something else driven by AI technology, one thing is for sure - the impact it will have on our lives and most important, the future of military technology, will be unprecedented. Similar to nuclear technology, it seems that we will ultimately need to have some type of laws or agreements that prohibit certain uses of AI. However, with the complexity surrounding the technology, the inability for the law to grasp it, and most important, the pace at which it continues to move, one thing is certain - we better hold on tight. The line that has been drawn in the sand is about to be crossed - if we haven’t crossed it already.
