Paul Ryan: A Man Out of Time

Prince of the GOP Establishment Gets Trumped

Paul Ryan came to Washington to do big things. A disciple of Jack Kemp, Ryan was an optimist about what shrinking government could do for people: provide more freedom. For the next twenty years, Ryan plodded along gaining a reputation for being serious about reforming the nation’s tax code, the central tenet to which all factions of the Republican party could ascribe.

Rising to chair the Ways & Means Committee, Ryan continued along this path, eschewing leadership roles responsible for managing the caucus, which became increasingly fractious after the Tea Party movement restored the Republican majority in the House.

Then Mitt Romney called.

Run and Return

Temperamentally similar, the two straight-out-of-central casting GOP candidates ran a race, which in retrospect appears almost too quaint to believe. Both rejected birtherism and generally took a straightforward approach to running for the White House. Romney and Ryan looked and acted like callbacks to a different era. The 1988 playbook of a patrician George H.W. Bush and a younger Dan Quayle needed a Michael Dukakis and Geraldine Ferraro. Instead they got Obama and Biden and lost to history. Romney and Ryan were the right candidates at the wrong time.

The loss, hyper-analyzed by the party as a failure of data, was truly a misreading of a shift in culture. No longer could the GOP nominate a team who would not fully engage their opponents. Dominance of reality television vs. scripted programming foresaw what the GOP could not: a shift in expectations of voters in their politicians, how they would speak, and how they would act, and how they would fight to win.

Ryan returned to the House of Representatives where Speaker John Boehner decided to go home to his farm where he could freely relax and smoke cigarettes, without a care in the world. After Kevin McCarthy was passed over due to a successful whisper campaign that he was carrying on an extra-marital affair, the caucus turned to Ryan and he balked.

Ryan still wanted to do big things like tax reform and did not want the job of managing a team of rivals, who he knew would come for him someday. But he took the job and made sure everyone knew it wasn’t his idea. This was another callback to how politicians used to run: they were called to service, not office-seekers.

Then Donald J. Trump rode down a golden escalator and the clock on Ryan’s leadership began to wind down.

The Campaign

A relationship between Ryan and Trump was never going to work long-term. Ryan is restrained where Trump is tempermental. Ryan looks at Washington as a place where big things can get done and Trump views it as a swamp. Ryan has spent most of his adult life in Washington working collaboratively and Trump has built a business with his name on the letterhead and at the top of every building. Ryan is respectful where Trump is contemptuous. Ryan comes off as highly programmed and Trump is authentic.

The culture moved from where Ryan began to where Trump is today. Ronald Reagan’s edict of not speaking ill of a fellow Republican was respectful, restrained, but never authentic. Trump got that. He won the presidency by belittling his opponents, Republican and Democrat alike.

Trump took the oath of office on January 20, 2017 and Paul Ryan had a decision to make: how to work with this guy.

Managing Up

Vanquishing Hillary Clinton gave Trump all the Republican goodwill seemingly he could ever need with them. Today, National polls have Trump at an over 80% approval among GOP voters while Ryan hovers around 50%. Part of this is because of the offices they hold but it is also a reflection of the time we are in today. Republicans and Democrats want their leaders to speak up.

Ryan’s attempts to maintain decorum, at times carefully scolding the president on his conduct while holding him close on policy was only going to work for so long. So Ryan concentrated on achieving what he always wanted in tax reform. The bill was passed and Trump signed it. Right after that, and under-reported, was Ryan’s wish to then address entitlements. As this is an election year and that was the last thing on anyone else’s agenda, the question remained what was left for him to do?

He had achieved the core issue of the Republican coalition as he saw it and did not see a path forward on other big things. He never had interest in Trump priorities such as The Wall or infrastructure. Working with an embattled and highly volatile Trump was a hassle. Impeachment? Who wants to be involved with that?

Paul Ryan finally realized, belatedly, his time in Washington was up.

In the end, Paul Ryan delivered the most predictable exit line with a straight face: he was leaving to spend more time with his family.