THE ECHO: Weekly Roundup of Political Discussion on Twitter (April 26-May 2, 2018)
White House Correspondents’ Dinner, Congressional Toss-Up Races, VA Nomination Fails, Russia Investigation, Iran Deal, and the First #MeToo Celebrity Conviction
Politics clashed with popular culture this week on Twitter. A flashpoint between a comedienne and the White House press secretary served up more than two million tweets this week in the United States. Tweets about Sen. Tina Smith (MN-D) doubled as she tried to ignore an opponent who wants to share a debate stage. Republican Rep. Will Hurd (TX-23-R) was targeted in a tweet referring to his seat on the intelligence committee, spiking an increase of close to 2,500 percent related tweets vs. last week. While the Russia investigation drew more than 50 percent more tweet volume this week, an upcoming decision for President Trump to re-certify the Iran Deal looks increasingly doubtful, doubling tweet volume on the subject from last week. Finally, the conviction of Bill Cosby, spiked related #MeToo hashtags up over 90 percent.
Wolf Dishes Sanders
The made-for-Twitter moment during the annual White House Correspondents’ Dinner is when the comedian inevitably shifts to making jokes about the president’s administration. The biting satire has become increasingly too close for comfort for presidents and last year Donald J. Trump, (in)famously the target of President Obama’s turn, broke tradition and skipped the meal last year and sent some White House staff this year in his absence. Without Trump, one might think that Twitter would be relatively quiet on the august dinner celebrating the first amendment. Not so. Pro tip to next year’s Trump White House staffers: do not sit at the main table, especially during the comedy section.
Press Secretary Sarah Sanders was on the dais when comedienne Michelle Wolf got to around to her and it became the moment Twitter appeared to be waiting for all week. Watch the full se there; it’s now the most-viewed WHCA dinner emcee ever. Wolf’s twitter volume went through the roof with an increase of 545,962 percent over the previous week on 1,736,974 related tweets. Press Secretary Sanders saw a 747 percent increase on 1,258,498 related tweets. The dinner itself drew 10,912 percent more tweet volume than last week on 436,373 related tweets.
Incumbents Called Out
This week, we added a standard Hot Topic for this year’s congressional races encompassing several permutations of 2018, elections, and midterms. We also added party-centric versions such as #BlueWave and #RedWaveRising into the mix. At this early point in the campaign, before most of the primaries, the upcoming election drew 269,892 related tweets, making it the third hottest topic on our list this week. We anticipate this list of hashtags multiply as will related posts.
Incumbent Senator Tina Smith, who represents Minnesota, a relatively friendly state for Democrats this year, was called out on Twitter for avoiding a debate with her Republican opponent Richard W. Painter, who has eschewed taking PAC money while groups friendly to Sen. Smith are targeting him with ads. While tweet volume for Sen. Smith was up 123 percent from last week to 13,030 related tweets Painter is going to have to find a way to keep up the heat or it will quickly dissipate, as we have seen in our research. Sen. Smith would be well-advised to monitor the energy on Twitter to see if she needs to respond with an offer to debate.
In contrast, incumbent Congressman Will Hurd (TX-23-R) was not called out by his opponent but by Brian Krassenstein of Floridawho bills himself, in part, as a “Twitter personality.” Krassenstein listed Hurd along with the other Republican members of the House Intelligence Committee with the tagline: VOTE THEM OUT! This was enough to spike Rep. Hurd’s related tweets up 2,498 percent to 7,482 posts. Note that Rep. Hurd who has never been the most-talked about incumbent we’ve been tracking and is rarely in our top five. Any endangered incumbent can be called out and not just by an opponent or constituent to drive national Twitter traffic.
International Defenses
Looking across the Atlantic and back at home, the Russia investigation rolled along with 53 percent more posts this week on 519,212 related U.S.-based tweets. President Trump conflated allegations against Dr. Ronny Jackson to be the next Veterans Administration secretary (he ultimately withdrew) with the “phony Russian Collusion.” As we’ve learned in our study of political Twitter, once Trump engages, those around him are spiked. In this case, the Russia investigation was drawn into the mix.
French President Emanuel Macron and German Chancellor Angela Merkel visited Washington this week to both lobby President Trump on recertifying the Iran deal, which appears to be doomed in its current form. Discussion about the Iran deal was up more than two-fold (204 percent) on 231,749 related tweets ahead of the decision. Once Trump decertifies, we anticipate tweet volume to jump significantly.
#MeToo Conviction
Finally, this week saw another step forward in the #MeToo movement with comedian and at his career apex the nation’s most admired man Bill Cosby convicted of three counts of sexual assault. #MeToo and related hashtags were up 91 percent from the previous week 237,175 related posts. Since mid-October 2017 the #MeToo movement and related hastags has drawn close to 10 million tweets.
“The ECHO” is a publication of The George Washington University’s Graduate School of Political Management (GSPM). This edition covers political activity on Twitter in the United States April 26-May 2, 2018. All data from this post, as well as our methodology, is available on our PEORIA Project website and weekly by email (subscribe here). Also available on our website is the first edition of The ECHO Quarterly, summarizing three big things this research can teach campaigns and elected officials.
