The ECHO: Weekly Roundup of Political Discussion on Twitter (March 1–7, 2018)
Parkland Disrupts the Pro-Gun Florida Legislature, President Trump’s Tariffs, Campaign and White House Staff Chaos, and the Special Election in Pennsylvania 18 Endgame
After a week away at GSPM’s Reimagining Disruption conference, the victims and families of the Parkland community disrupted the status quo on gun laws in Florida this past week. As noted in the previous edition of The ECHO, it was different this time. The Florida legislature compromise, raised the age to 21 from 18 for purchasing “long guns” like the AR-15 used in the Stoneman Douglas High School shooting. In other news, President Trump announced his intention to levy tariffs on steel and aluminum, White House Communications Director Hope Hicks resigned, Senior Advisor Jared Kushner’s security clearance was downgraded, and former Trump 2016 Advisor Sam Nunberg, melted down on national television in response to pressure from Special Counsel Robert Mueller. Finally, Conor Lamb has pulled ahead in the upcoming special election to represent Pennsylvania’s 18th congressional district.
Florida Gun Control and School Safety Legislation
“Some have said it is too soon to talk about gun control. No. It is not too soon. No. This is not the wrong time. There is no better time than now to talk about gun control,” Marjorie Stoneman Douglas High School Student Florence Yared, at the #NeverAgain rally in Tallahassee, Florida, on February 21, 2018.
Yared was right. In fact, moving quickly was likely a key ingredient in the successful effort to force the Republican-majority Florida legislature act at all in light of the expected waning interest, highlighted by our data on Twitter: tweets about the National Rifle Association (NRA) were down 74 percent from last week, while conversation about the school shooting itself and gun control proposals were both down 67 percent. Altogether, the combined volume still totaled 3.3 million related tweets, which was still significant in terms of previous topics highlighted in The ECHO.
Still, to go against the National Rifle Association with declining interest is a testament to the community’s commitment to move quickly and push the Republican-controlled legislature to address the gun issue, which is not where it naturally go. While a ban on assault weapons was rejected in the Florida Senate, a ban on bump stocks, a three-day waiting period to buy long guns, and an increase in the age from 18 to 21 to be in line with handgun age minimums was passed, which would have prevented the sale of the weapon to the assailant, who was 19 at the time of the massacre. The compromise also increased money for school safety, mental health services and regulations, and staff firearms training, both of which the NRA supported. As of this writing, Governor Rick Scott has not indicated whether or not he will sign the bipartisan bill.
Trump’s Tariffs and Trade Wars
The most tweeted-about new issue of the week was President Trump’s suggestion that he would impose tariffs on aluminum and steel, which may have prompted top Trump economic advisor Gary Cohn to resign and 203,571 related tweets, up 37,570% from the previous week. Trump fired off several tweets, including one rationalizing that it was in response to the European Union’s tariffs, another on long-term manufacturing job losses, and yet another directed at China to “develop a plan” to reduce their surplus with the United States. A formal announcement was scheduled for 3:30pm on Thursday, after our deadline for The ECHO (more next week).
Departures, Downgrades, and a Meltdowns
Gary Cohn wasn’t the only top staffer to leave the White House this week. One day after providing limited testimony about Russian meddling on Capitol Hill, White House Communications Director Hope Hicks resigned, spurring 237,832 tweets about her, down 10 percent from last week. Hicks was one of the few remaining original staffers from the 2016 presidential campaign and her leaving the White House highly consequential as she said she told “white lies” on occasion for the president. Son-in-law and Senior Advisor Jared Kushner had his security clearance downgraded, prompting 330,512 related tweets. It is unclear how Kushner, who has a broad international portfolio, will continue to operate without access to very sensitive information. Finally, Trump 2016 advisor Sam Nunberg spent a very bad day on television this week, vowing (then changing his mind) that he would not comply with Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s requests for his email in rambling, incoherent interviews that spiked tweets about him up 21,074 percent from the previous week to 477,251 related posts.
PA-18 Special Election
The race for the open seat in Pennsylvania’s 18th congressional district may be getting away from Republican Rick Saccone. Trump won this in 2016 by 20 points but Saccone has been clinging to a narrow lead over his well-funded Democratic opponent, Conor Lamb. This week, Emerson College’s ePoll had Lamb up three percent over Saccone but Gravis had Saccone up three. Both polls, aggregated by RealClearPolitics, have the race within the margin of each survey’s error. Regardless of where the race is, the available polling shows that it’s a tighter race, down from Saccone +12% in January (via Gravis). Our Twitter analytics show Lamb retaining a 3:1 lead in average number of related tweets, which reinforces the 5:1 edge he has maintained in fundraising over Saccone. This week, tweets about Lamb were up 34 percent while they were up 65 percent for Saccone so it is possible that local Republicans have woken up to engage late in this race. It may be too late.
“The ECHO” is a publication of The George Washington University’s Graduate School of Political Management (GSPM). This edition covers political activity on Twitter in the United States March 1–7, 2018. All data from this post, as well as our methodology, is available on our PEORIA Project website and weekly by email (subscribe here). Also available on our website is the first edition of The ECHO Quarterly, summarizing three big things this research can teach campaigns and elected officials. I presented additional research on the #metoo movement at GSPM’s conference “Reimagining Disruption” on February 28 (download here).
