Your input has been hugely helpful, Philipp, thank you for taking the time to elaborate the shortcomings from an academic’s perspective. I thought that describing it as a “model” was sufficient to point out that it is not a scientifically proven analysis. As a result of your feedback I’m going to rewrite the entire piece so that it’s clear I’m asking a question about perceived patterns rather than stating it as fact.
Thank you too for the introduction to Cliodynamics — in all my research I’ve not come across this field before, and it’s exactly what I’m looking for: Big History backed up by Big Data.
Have purchased 2 of Turchin’s books already and I’m looking forward to diving into them this weekend.